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Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended December 19, 2025

24 Dec 2025 , 12:48 PM

FPIs TURN NET BUYERS; BUT SENTIMENTS STILL HAZY

There were several interesting data points this week. The trade deficit narrowed sharply to $24.53 Billion in November from a high of $41.65 Billion in October. Towards the end of the week, Fed minutes hinted at a more cautious and data-driven approach to rate cuts in the coming months. In the US, unemployment spiked to 4.6%, while core inflation continued to remain high. That surely makes a case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in January 2026 also. For now, the big X-factor remains the rupee, which has been extremely volatile.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO DECEMBER 19, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore)	(39,063.85)	4,070.42	(34,993.43)	14,488.43	(20,505.00)
Sep-2025 (₹ Crore)	(27,163.33)	3,278.61	(23,884.72)	11,345.99	(12,538.73)
Oct-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,902.34	10,707.97	14,610.31	20,987.58	35,597.89
Nov-2025 (₹ Crore)	(15,659.31)	11,894.69	(3,764.62)	6,601.09	2,836.47
Dec-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(21,104.02)	6,919.31	(14,184.71)	(9,176.68)	(23,361.39)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(2,30,964.33)	73,106.50	(1,57,857.83)	69,015.78	(88,842.05)
Data Source: NSDL (outflows in brackets) (# – Data up to December 19, 2025)

Data Source: NSDL (Net Outflows in brackets)

Cumulative FPI flows for 2025 stayed in negative zone at ₹ (88,842) Crore. This comprised of ₹ (1,57,858) Crore net selling in equities, offset by ₹69,016 Crore net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of ₹ (2,30,964) Crore; offset by IPO buying of ₹73,107 Crore. IPO flows during the week were robust, largely driven by the massive QIB and FPI anchor inflows into ICICI Prudential AMC Ltd IPO.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to December 19, 2025, FPI net buying stood at $419 Million.

The rupee showed sharp bouts of volatility during the week. It weakened to as low as ₹91.1/$, but rebounded sharply on Friday to close the week at ₹89.50/$, largely on the back of some aggressive RBI intervention by selling dollars to defend the rupee.
Merchandise trade deficit for November narrowed to $24.53 Billion, from a high of $41.65 Billion in August. For November, imports were contained while exports grew. Oil from Russia has helped, but even services exports are playing an important part.
FPIs were net sellers in Indian equities to the tune of $1.96 billion in the first half of December 2025. Bulk of the selling was visible in BFSI, IT, Healthcare, and FMCG. However, sectors like oil & gas and metals did see some active buying by FPIs.
Wholesale inflation in India rebounded in November from -1.21% to -0.32%. This was largely driven by a bounce in food prices due to the low base effect. However, the manufacturing WPI inflation with 64.2% weight, tapered further to 1.33% in Nov-25.
During the week, Bank of Japan raised the benchmark rates by 25 bps to 0.75%. This is likely to impact the carry trade, which entails borrowing in Yen and deploying in other markets. However, carry trade volumes have come down over the years.

Let us turn to granular FPI flows in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee terms and dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
24-Nov-25	-1,616.74	-1,616.74	-182.39	-182.39
25-Nov-25	-3,850.87	-5,467.61	-431.75	-614.14
26-Nov-25	974.53	-4,493.08	109.23	-504.91
27-Nov-25	5,020.50	527.42	562.43	57.52
28-Nov-25	-503.55	23.87	-56.39	1.13
01-Dec-25	-3,489.27	-3,465.40	-390.06	-388.93
02-Dec-25	-846.04	-4,311.44	-94.27	-483.20
03-Dec-25	-4,033.46	-8,344.90	-448.72	-931.92
04-Dec-25	-4,752.40	-13,097.30	-526.46	-1,458.38
05-Dec-25	1,301.07	-11,796.23	144.27	-1,314.11
08-Dec-25	-16.48	-11,812.71	-1.83	-1,315.94
09-Dec-25	-86.97	-11,899.68	-9.65	-1,325.59
10-Dec-25	-2,127.67	-14,027.35	-236.50	-1,562.09
11-Dec-25	-2,052.80	-16,080.15	-228.39	-1,790.48
12-Dec-25	-1,851.41	-17,931.56	-204.87	-1,995.35
15-Dec-25	134.78	-17,796.78	14.92	-1,980.43
16-Dec-25	578.83	-17,217.95	63.80	-1,916.63
17-Dec-25	-1,424.96	-18,642.91	-156.55	-2,073.18
18-Dec-25	1,658.07	-16,984.84	183.56	-1,889.62
19-Dec-25	2,824.00	-14,160.84	313.33	-1,576.29

Data Source: NSDL

In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(681) Million, $(1,315) Million; net inflows of $1.13 Million, $261 Million, $730 Million; net outflows of $(1,417) Million; and net inflows of $826 Million. The week to December 19, 2025, saw FPI net equity buying of $419 Million; although bulk of the contribution came from FPI IPO participation.
In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (14,161) Crore or $(1,576) Million. In calendar 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities in 7 out of 11 months; but net buyers in debt in 9 out of 11 months.

The coming week has several important triggers. Firstly, FPIs will closely track the Indian rupee, which has been very volatile. Secondly, India core sector data will provide the key to a downstream rebound in IIP. Thirdly, focus will also be on the US PCE inflation for October and the first estimate for Q3 GDP growth in the US.

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