Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended December 26, 2025

30 Dec 2025 , 06:08 PM

FPIS STAY CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF YEAR-END

During the week, the rupee staged a sharp comeback; continuing the trend of the previous Friday. The USD/INR closed on all days below ₹90/$, thanks to RBI support and dollar swaps announced. In terms of data flows, core sector growth came in tad better at 1.76% for November, compared to contraction in October. In global markets, the US GDP growth came in sharply higher at 4.3% for Q3. The big question is; will the Fed cut rates by another 25 bps in January 2026; and for that the FOMC minutes next week will be critical. FPIs have been net sellers in 3 out of the last 4 calendar years in secondary market equities.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO DECEMBER 26, 2025

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 4 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Jan-2025 (₹ Crore)	(81,903.72)	3,876.78	(78,026.94)	815.91	(77,211.03)
Feb-2025 (₹ Crore)	(41,748.97)	7,174.62	(34,574.35)	10,273.72	(24,300.63)
Mar-2025 (₹ Crore)	(6,027.77)	2,055.16	(3,972.61)	36,953.97	32,981.36
Apr-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,243.03	980.28	4,223.31	(24,413.24)	(20,189.93)
May-2025 (₹ Crore)	18,082.82	1,777.41	19,860.23	11,089.48)	30,949.71
Jun-2025 (₹ Crore)	8,466.77	6,123.51	14,590.28	(22,153.36)	(7,563.08)
Jul-2025 (₹ Crore)	(31,988.32)	14,247.74	(17,740.58)	12,202.89	(5,537.69)
Aug-2025 (₹ Crore)	(39,063.85)	4,070.42	(34,993.43)	14,488.43	(20,505.00)
Sep-2025 (₹ Crore)	(27,163.33)	3,278.61	(23,884.72)	11,345.99	(12,538.73)
Oct-2025 (₹ Crore)	3,902.34	10,707.97	14,610.31	20,987.58	35,597.89
Nov-2025 (₹ Crore)	(15,659.31)	11,894.69	(3,764.62)	6,601.09	2,836.47
Dec-2025 (₹ Crore) #	(22,130.28)	7,395.90	(14,735.38)	(14,758.36)	(29,493.74)
Total for 2025 (₹ Crore)	(2,31,990.59)	73,583.09	(1,58,407.50)	63,433.10	(94,974.40)
Data Source: NSDL (outflows in brackets) (# – Data up to December 26, 2025)

Cumulative FPI flows for 2025 stayed in negative zone at ₹ (94,974) Crore. This comprised of ₹ (1,58,408) Crore net selling in equities, offset by ₹63,433 Crore net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of ₹ (2,31,991) Crore; offset by IPO buying of ₹73,583 Crore. The fresh wave of big IPOs are only likely to start in the new calendar year. December 2025 saw net outflows in debt; for the first time since June 2025.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to December 26, 2025, FPI outflows stood at $(62) Million.

The Indian rupee closed the week below ₹90/$ as continuous RBI intervention and the dollar swaps kept the rupee strong. However, FPI flows continued to be tepid, being the end of the year. Hedging pressures reduced in a truncated week.

1)      Core sector growth for November came in at 1.76%, a turnaround from the 6-bps contraction in October. Fossil fuel segments like oil exploration, refining, and electricity continued to be under pressure; with positive thrust from steel and cement.

2)      US GDP growth for Q3-2025 came in sharply higher at 4.3%. That is 100 bps better than the street estimates. The big question is whether this will allow a rate cut in January 2026; considering that unemployment was at 4.6%.

3)      The IBBI has notified new rules to curb the re-entry of promoters of distressed companies. The COC will now be required to also verify the beneficial ownership of the bidders, while the bidders will also be required to file an affidavit on eligibility.

4)      Gold and Silver touched lifetime highs of $4,534/oz and $79.30/oz during the week as a mix of year-end buying and short-covering led to a sharp surge in silver. For the year, gold is already up over 70%, while silver has now rallied over 160% since Jan-25.

Let us turn to granular FPI flows in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee and dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
01-Dec-25	-3,489.27	-3,489.27	-390.06	-390.06
02-Dec-25	-846.04	-4,335.31	-94.27	-484.33
03-Dec-25	-4,033.46	-8,368.77	-448.72	-933.05
04-Dec-25	-4,752.40	-13,121.17	-526.46	-1,459.51
05-Dec-25	1,301.07	-11,820.10	144.27	-1,315.24
08-Dec-25	-16.48	-11,836.58	-1.83	-1,317.07
09-Dec-25	-86.97	-11,923.55	-9.65	-1,326.72
10-Dec-25	-2,127.67	-14,051.22	-236.50	-1,563.22
11-Dec-25	-2,052.80	-16,104.02	-228.39	-1,791.61
12-Dec-25	-1,851.41	-17,955.43	-204.87	-1,996.48
15-Dec-25	134.78	-17,820.65	14.92	-1,981.56
16-Dec-25	578.83	-17,241.82	63.80	-1,917.76
17-Dec-25	-1,424.96	-18,666.78	-156.55	-2,074.31
18-Dec-25	1,658.07	-17,008.71	183.56	-1,890.75
19-Dec-25	2,824.00	-14,184.71	313.33	-1,577.42
22-Dec-25	2,167.34	-12,017.37	240.29	-1,337.13
23-Dec-25	187.65	-11,829.72	20.95	-1,316.18
24-Dec-25	-1,347.67	-13,177.39	-150.02	-1,466.20
25-Dec-25	0.00	-13,177.39	0.00	-1,466.20
26-Dec-25	-1,556.99	-14,734.38	-173.44	-1,639.64

Data Source: NSDL

·         In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net inflows of $419 Million, net outflows of $(681) Million, $(1,315) Million; net inflows of $1.13 Million, $261 Million, $730 Million; and net outflows of $(1,417) Million. The week to December 26, 2025, saw FPI net equity selling of $(62) Million; largely on the back of year-end caution by FPIs.

·         In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (14,734) Crore or $(1,640) Million. In calendar 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities in 8 out of 12 months; but net buyers in debt in 9 out of 12 months.

The coming week has several important triggers. Firstly, the India IIP data for November will be put out, with focus on manufacturing IIP. Secondly, the 8-month fiscal deficit update will give a picture of whether 4.4% of GDP is on target. Thirdly, all eyes will be on the US FOMC minutes next week, which will set the tone for a possible rate cut in January 2026.