Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended January 02, 2026

29 Jan 2026 , 01:30 PM

YEAR CHANGES, FPI SENTIMENTS THE SAME

Two days may be a very short time to gauge FPI sentiments, but the latest week shows that FPIs have been net sellers on all the days of the week. Clearly, year-end winding down was visible in FPI action during the week. In terms of major data flows this week, IIP growth for November turned around from negative zone to above 6%. However, the pressure on government finances was visible in the fiscal deficit update, with fiscal deficit climbing by ₹1.52 Trillion during November 2025. This has raised apprehensions that government may see central fiscal deficit spilling beyond the budgeted 4.4%.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO JANUARY 02, 2026

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 5 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Calendar 2025 (₹ Crore)	(2,40,193.24)	73,909.60	(1,66,283.64)	62,234.51	(1,04,049.13)
Jan-2026 (₹ Crore) #	(7,628.78)	20.54	(7,608.24)	2,259.29	(5,348.95)
Total for 2026 (₹ Crore)	(7,628.78)	20.54	(7,608.24)	2,259.29	(5,348.95)
Data Source: NSDL (outflows in brackets) (# – Data up to January 02, 2026)

We have had just 2 trading days in January, so we shall focus on the FPI data up to December 2025. Cumulative FPI flows for 2025 were in negative zone at ₹ (1,04,049) Crore. This comprised of ₹ (1,66,284) Crore net selling in equities, offset by ₹62,235 Crore net buying in debt. Within equities, secondary market selling was to the tune of ₹ (2,40,193) Crore; offset by IPO buying of ₹73,910 Crore. IPO flows dried up in the last week of 2025.

There are some interesting trends from the macro FPI data for last 4 years. FPIs have been net sellers in the secondary equity markets for 3 out of the last 4 calendar years. However, thanks to strong IPO flows in 2024, net flows were neutral in 2024. Despite robust IPO flows in 2025, FPI participation was just 61% of 2024. Domestic institutions were a lot more active in IPOs in 2025. Year 2025 was the third consecutive year of heavy FPI inflows into debt.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to January 02, 2026, FPI outflows were heavy at $(1,722) Million.

• Index of industrial production (IIP) turned around from -0.06% in October to 6.68% in November 2025. The turnaround was triggered by a bounce in the manufacturing IIP, helped by domestic manufacturing and a revival in exports.
• Fiscal deficit for FY26 stood at 62.3% of full year target after 8 months of the fiscal year. The bigger concern was that net tax revenues were just 49% of full year target after 8 months with most refunds for the previous year yet to be paid out.
• The RBI Financial Stability Report (FSR) has red-flagged the possibility of a 60 bps rise in gross NPAs of NBFCs to 2.9% by September 2026. This will lead to a reduction in the capital adequacy ratio (CRAR) from the current 22.8% to 21.7%, according to RBI.
• Indian primary markets closed year 2025 with IPOs to the tune of ₹1.75 Trillion. However, FPI participation in these IPOs was 40% lower than the previous year. Year 2026 is expected to see IPOs worth ₹2.50 Trillion; subject to market conditions.
• The rally in gold and silver faltered during the week with gold falling to $4,330/oz and silver to $72.60/oz amid some frenzied selling over the year end. However, yearly returns have been phenomenal and UBS has projected gold above $5,000/oz in 2026.

Let us turn to granular FPI flows in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee and dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
08-Dec-25	-16.48	-16.48	-1.83	-1.83
09-Dec-25	-86.97	-103.45	-9.65	-11.48
10-Dec-25	-2,127.67	-2,231.12	-236.50	-247.98
11-Dec-25	-2,052.80	-4,283.92	-228.39	-476.37
12-Dec-25	-1,851.41	-6,135.33	-204.87	-681.24
15-Dec-25	134.78	-6,000.55	14.92	-666.32
16-Dec-25	578.83	-5,421.72	63.80	-602.52
17-Dec-25	-1,424.96	-6,846.68	-156.55	-759.07
18-Dec-25	1,658.07	-5,188.61	183.56	-575.51
19-Dec-25	2,824.00	-2,364.61	313.33	-262.18
22-Dec-25	2,167.34	-197.27	240.29	-21.89
23-Dec-25	187.65	-9.62	20.95	-0.94
24-Dec-25	-1,347.67	-1,357.29	-150.02	-150.96
25-Dec-25	0.00	-1,357.29	0.00	-150.96
26-Dec-25	-1,556.99	-2,914.28	-173.44	-324.40
29-Dec-25	-1,672.31	-4,586.59	-186.16	-510.56
30-Dec-25	-2,616.71	-7,203.30	-290.82	-801.38
31-Dec-25	-3,587.10	-10,790.40	-398.82	-1,200.20
01-Jan-26	-4,568.72	-15,359.12	-508.09	-1,708.29
02-Jan-26	-3,039.52	-18,398.64	-337.81	-2,046.10

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $(62) Million, net inflows of $419 Million, net outflows of $(681) Million, $(1,315) Million; net inflows of $1.13 Million, $261 Million, and $730 Million. The week to January 02, 2026, saw heavy FPI net equity selling of $(1,722) Million; on year-end jitters.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (18,399) Crore or $(2,046) Million. In calendar 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities in 8 out of 12 months; but net buyers in debt in 9 out of 12 months.

The coming week has several important triggers. In India, there is the all-important first estimate of FY26 GDP to be announced on 07-January. The big unemployment number in the US will also be put out in this week. However, the two data points that will really matter to the markets is the rupee strength and colour of FPI flows in the coming week.