Weekly Musings – FPI flows for week ended January 09, 2026

30 Jan 2026 , 11:49 AM

TRUMP TARIFFS SOFTEN FPI ENTHUSIASM

It was a week in which the sentiments were dominated by the fear that Trump would raise tariffs on countries like India to 500%. That was clearly intended to browbeat India to stop buying Russian oil. However, it could make bulk of Indian exports unviable; and it applies to services too. The impact was visible in the last couple of days as the FPIs sold off.

In terms of data flows, it was neutral. The first advance estimate of FY26 GDP came in at 7.4%, which is 90 bps better than last year. However, it was 180 bps lower than last year in nominal terms, indicating that most of the real GDP gains had come from low inflation. US unemployment tapered to 4.4%, and that does raise questions about a rate cut in Jan-26.

MACRO FPI FLOW PICTURE UP TO JANUARY 09, 2026

The table captures monthly FPI flows into equity and debt for last 5 calendar years.

Calendar Month	FPI Flows Secondary	FPI Flows Primary	FPI Flows Equity	FPI Flows Debt/Hybrid	Overall FPI Flows
Calendar 2022 (₹ Crore)	(146,048.38)	24,608.94	(121,439.44)	(11,375.78)	(132,815.22)
Calendar 2023 (₹ Crore)	1,27,759.75	43,347.14	1,71,106.89	65,954.38	2,37,061.27
Calendar 2024 (₹ Crore)	(1,21,210.21)	1,21,637.15	426.94	1,65,342.98	1,65,769.92
Calendar 2025 (₹ Crore)	(2,40,193.24)	73,909.60	(1,66,283.64)	62,234.51	(1,04,049.13)
Jan-2026 (₹ Crore) #	(11,786.60)	(2.73)	(11,789.33)	4,526.36	(7,262.97)
Total for 2026 (₹ Crore)	(11,786.60)	(2.73)	(11,789.33)	4,526.36	(7,262.97)
Data Source: NSDL (outflows in brackets) (# – Data up to January 09, 2026)

We have had just 7 trading days in January, but the underlying trend is once again veering towards a sell-off. Cumulative FPI flows for 2025 were in negative zone at ₹ (1,04,049) Crore. This comprised of ₹ (1,66,284) Crore net selling in equities, offset by ₹62,235 Crore net buying in debt. In equities, secondary market selling was ₹ (2,40,193) Crore; offset by IPO buying of ₹73,910 Crore. FPI participation in IPOs was 40% lower than previous year.

The one segment that has seen some genuine FPI buying in the last 3 years is debt, especially after the Indian government bonds were included in global indices. In the last 3 years between 2023 and 2025, FPIs infused close to $33 Billion into Indian debt, which has been largely driven by demand from passive allocation funds and ETFs globally.

FPI SENTIMENTS – THE WEEK THAT WAS

For the week to January 09, 2026, FPI outflows were at $(466) Million.

• First advance estimate (FAE) of FY26 GDP came in at 7.4%, 90 bps better than previous year. However, the nominal growth rate is pegged to be 180 bps lower than last year; indicating that most of the real GDP gains are coming purely from low inflation.
• After the Maduro drama late last week, Donald Trump has now threatened to impose 500% tariffs on Indian exports for continuing to buy Russian oil. While this is yet to be passed by the house, it could potentially make most Indian exports to the US unviable.
• US unemployment for December 2025 came in lower at 4.4%; on top of the November unemployment figure being revised lower from 4.6% to 4.5%. With normalizing jobs, robust growth, and high inflation; US Fed will have a tough time justifying rate cuts.
• Indian IPO markets returned to action after 3 weeks as Bharat Coking Coal hit the IPO market with its ₹1,171 Crore OFS. Next week, will also see Amagi Media Labs in the IPO market to raise ₹1,789 Crore through a mix of fresh issue and an OFS.
• Gold bounced by 4.5% and Silver bounced by 11% for the week; recouping all the losses of the previous week. The Maduro capture has again led a rush to gold as a safe haven as geopolitical risk returns. Silver continues to attract trader interest.

Let us turn to granular FPI flows in last 4 weeks.

DAILY FPI EQUITY FLOWS FOR LAST 4 ROLLING WEEKS

Here is the last 4 rolling weeks data on FPI flows in rupee and dollar terms.

Date	FPI Flow (₹ Crore)	Cumulative flows	FPI Flow($ Million)	Cumulative flows
15-Dec-25	134.78	134.78	14.92	14.92
16-Dec-25	578.83	713.61	63.80	78.72
17-Dec-25	-1,424.96	-711.35	-156.55	-77.83
18-Dec-25	1,658.07	946.72	183.56	105.73
19-Dec-25	2,824.00	3,770.72	313.33	419.06
22-Dec-25	2,167.34	5,938.06	240.29	659.35
23-Dec-25	187.65	6,125.71	20.95	680.30
24-Dec-25	-1,347.67	4,778.04	-150.02	530.28
25-Dec-25	0.00	4,778.04	0.00	530.28
26-Dec-25	-1,556.99	3,221.05	-173.44	356.84
29-Dec-25	-1,672.31	1,548.74	-186.16	170.68
30-Dec-25	-2,616.71	-1,067.97	-290.82	-120.14
31-Dec-25	-3,587.10	-4,655.07	-398.82	-518.96
01-Jan-26	-4,568.72	-9,223.79	-508.09	-1,027.05
02-Jan-26	-3,039.52	-12,263.31	-337.81	-1,364.86
05-Jan-26	646.80	-11,616.51	71.77	-1,293.09
06-Jan-26	737.37	-10,879.14	81.68	-1,211.41
07-Jan-26	-16.44	-10,895.58	-1.82	-1,213.23
08-Jan-26	-1,839.01	-12,734.59	-204.46	-1,417.69
09-Jan-26	-3,709.81	-16,444.40	-412.69	-1,830.38

Data Source: NSDL

• In previous 7 weeks, FPIs saw net outflows of $ (1,722) Million, $(62) Million, net inflows of $419 Million, net outflows of $(681) Million, $(1,315) Million; net inflows of $1.13 Million, and $261 Million. The week to January 09, 2026, saw FPI net equity selling of $(466) Million amid tariff escalation concerns.
• In last 4 rolling weeks, total net FPI outflows from equities were ₹ (16,444) Crore or $(1,830) Million. In calendar 2025, FPIs were net sellers in equities in 8 out of 12 months; but net buyers in debt in 9 out of 12 months.

The coming week has several important triggers. In India, there is the inflation and trade data expected; while the US consumer inflation will also be out this week. The big question is whether FPIs will change their approach to India after being net sellers to the tune of $18.8 Billion in the previous calendar year?