India Q2 GDP at 7.3% over 7.6% YoY

India Infoline News Service | Mumbai | November 30, 2016 17:36 IST

The GDP at constant prices in Q2 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 29.63 lakh crore, as against Rs 27.62 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.3%.

GDP_1
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2016-17, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

The details of the estimates GDP for Q2 of 2016-17 are presented below.

I. Estimates of GVA by economic activity

(a) At constant (2011-2012) prices:

GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 29.63 lakh crore, as against Rs 27.62 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.3%. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 27.33 lakh crore, as against Rs 25.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 7.1% over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

The economic activities which registered growth of over 7% in Q2 of 2016-17 over Q2 of 2015-16 are ‘Public administration, defence & other services’, 'financial, insurance, real estate and professional services', ‘manufacturing’ and ‘trade, hotels and transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services, and ‘construction’ is estimated to be 3.3%, (-)1.5%, 3.5% and 3.5% respectively, during this period.

Industry Analysis
The second quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Kharif season of 2016-17 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC), abridged financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) for the period July-September 2016. Performance of key indicators of sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period July-September 2016 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September 2016 based on data received from BSE/NSE has been taken into account. Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, Profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 3.3% as compared to growth of 2.0% in Q2 2015-16. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GVA from agriculture in Q2 of 2016-17, the production of food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2016-17 was 8.9% as compared to decline of 3.2% during the same period in 2015-16. Around 51.0% of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of around 3.6% in Q2 of 2016-17.

Mining and quarrying
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector declined by (-)1.5% as compared to growth of 5.0% in Q2 of 2015-16. As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated for major listed companies at current prices is (-)1.1% in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil, natural gas and IIP mining registered growth rates of -3.5%, -3.3%, -2.8% and -2.7% respectively during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 0.9%, 1.7%, 0.03% and 3.1% respectively in Q2 of 2015-16.

Manufacturing
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.1% as compared to growth of 9.2% in Q2 of 2015-16. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70% in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE and NSE is 11.9% at current prices during Q2 of 2016-17. The growth in quasi-corporate and unorganized segment (which includes individual proprietorships and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 22% in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of (-)0.9% during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 4.7% in Q2 of 2015-16.

Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector grew by 3.5% as compared to growth of 7.5% in Q2 of 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 1.4% during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 6.8% in Q2 of 2015-16.

Construction
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 3.5% as compared to growth of 0.8% in Q2 of 2015-16. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 3.3% and 4.8% respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

Trade, hotels and transport & communication and services related to broadcasting
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from this sector grew by 7.1% as compared to growth of 6.7% in Q2 of 2015-16. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 13.1% during Q2 of 2016-17. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-)8.1% and 0.4% respectively during Q2 of 2016-17. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports registered growth rates of 21.1%, 8.1% and 4.1%, respectively, during Q2 of 2016-17.

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from this sector grew 8.2% as compared to growth of 11.9% in Q2 of 2015-16. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 76%. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which as estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices are (-)2.0% and 7.8%, respectively, during Q2 of 2016-17. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 11.3%, and 10.4%, respectively as on September 2016 as against growth of 10.6% and 9.1% respectively as on September 2015.

Public administration and defence and other services
Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2016-17 from this sector grew by 12.5% as compared to growth of 6.9% in Q2 of 2015-16. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government expenditure, net of interest payments and subsidies, grew by 20.8% during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 1.1% in Q2 of 2015-16.

(b) At current prices:
GDP is derived by adding taxes on products, net of subsidies on products, to GVA at basic prices. Growth in collection of Union Excise duties, customs duties and service tax was 40.7%, (-)5.2% and 19.2% respectively in Q2 of 2016-17. GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2016-17 is estimated at Rs 36.43 lakh crore, as against Rs 32.49 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing a growth rate of 12.1%. GVA at basic price at current prices in Q2 of 2016-17, is estimated at Rs 33.42 lakh crore, as against Rs 30.02 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16, showing an increase of 11.3%.

(c) Price indices used as deflators
The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has registered a growth of 9.0%, (-)10.2%, 2.3%, and 3.7% respectively whereas electricity declined by 2.8% during Q2 of 2016-17 over Q2 of 2015-16. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 5.2% during Q2 of 2016-17 over Q2 of 2015-16.

II. Estimates of expenditures on GDP

The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs 21.78 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against Rs 19.37 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs 16.26 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against Rs 15.11 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2016-17 are estimated at 59.8% and 54.9%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.6% and 54.7%, respectively in Q2 of 2015-16. Growth rates of PFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 12.4% and 7.6% during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 9.5% and 6.3% respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure
Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs 5.15 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against Rs 4.27 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs 3.84 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against Rs 3.33 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2016-17 are estimated at 14.1% and 13.0%, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 13.1% and 12.1% each in Q2 of 2015-16. Growth rates of GFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 20.8% and 15.2%respectively during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 5.8% and 3.3% respectively during Q2 of 2015-16.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs 9.86 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against Rs 10.19 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 8.58 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17 as against Rs 9.09 lakh crore in Q2 of 2015-16. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2016-17 are estimated at 27.1% and 29.0%, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 31.4% and 32.9% respectively in Q2 of 2015-16. Growth rates of GFCF at current and constant prices are estimated at (-)3.2% and (-)5.6% during Q2 of 2016-17 as compared to 7.5% and 9.7% during Q2 of 2015-16.
 
The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2016 (Q3 of 2016-17) will be on February 28, 2017.

Click read: How industry reacts to GDP performance report
 

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