A. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENTS Global Growth:
The global economy demonstrated resilience during FY 2025 26 despite persistent geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, elevated borrowing costs and disruptions in commodity markets. According to the World Bank, global economic growth was estimated at 2.9% in 2025 and is projected to moderate to 2.5% in 2026.
Growth across economies remained uneven, with emerging market and developing economies continuing to record stronger growth than advanced economies. However, the outlook remains subject to significant external risks, including geopolitical developments, changing trade policies and volatility in energy and commodity prices.
The global economy continued to benefit from private-sector adaptability, technology-led investment and resilient domestic demand in several major economies. At the same time, changing trade patterns, supply-chain adjustments and policy uncertainty continued to influence international trade and investment flows.
South Asia remained one of the fastest-growing regions globally. The World Bank projects regional growth at 6.3% in 2026, although this represents a moderation from the estimated 7.0% growth in 2025
Inflation:
Global inflation remained a key area of concern during FY 2025 26. While inflationary pressures had moderated in several economies, renewed increases in energy and commodity prices during 2026 have contributed to a reversal in the disinflationary trend.
The World Bank estimates global inflation at approximately 3.3% in 2025 and expects it to rise to around 4.0% in 2026, primarily due to higher energy and commodity prices and disruptions in global supply chains.
Central banks across major economies continued to balance the objectives of maintaining price stability while supporting economic activity. The persistence of inflationary pressures is expected to influence monetary policy, borrowing costs and investment decisions globally.
Risks & Policy Backdrop:
The global economic outlook continues to be influenced by geopolitical conflicts, trade restrictions, energy-market disruptions, elevated commodity prices and financial-market volatility. These factors may affect global trade, investment flows, production costs and business confidence.
The outbreak and continuation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased uncertainty around energy supplies and commodity prices. The World Bank has highlighted that a prolonged disruption to energy supplies could further weaken global growth and intensify inflationary pressures.
Trade policy uncertainty and changing tariff structures continue to influence global supply chains and investment decisions. Businesses are increasingly focusing on supply-chain diversification, operational efficiency and greater resilience against external disruptions.
B. INDIAN ECONOMY OVERVIEW (FY 2025 26)
India continued to remain among the fastest-growing major economies in the world, supported by resilient domestic demand, strong investment activity and continued expansion across key sectors of the economy.
i. Real GDP growth for FY 2025 26 was estimated at 7.8%, according to the latest estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The growth reflects the continued resilience of the Indian economy amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
ii. Economic activity remained broad-based, with services, manufacturing, construction and domestic consumption continuing to contribute significantly to overall economic growth. The Economic Survey 2025 26 highlighted Indias strong growth momentum and continued expansion in productive capacity.
iii. Manufacturing activity strengthened during FY 2025 26, with manufacturing GVA recording robust growth during the first and second quarters of the year. The improvement reflects stronger industrial activity, domestic demand and investment-led expansion.
iv. The services sector continued to remain a key driver of economic activity, supported by information technology, financial services, professional services, trade, transport and other business services.
v. Indias exports of merchandise and services reached a record level of approximately US$863.11 billion during FY 2025 26, compared with US$825.26 billion in FY 2024 25, registering growth of approximately 4.59%. Merchandise exports were approximately US$441.78 billion, while services exports were approximately US$421.32 billion.
vi. Domestic consumption remained an important pillar of growth, supported by improving household demand, rural activity, infrastructure development and continued government expenditure.
vii. Inflation remained relatively contained for a significant part of FY 2025 26. The moderation in inflationary pressures supported household purchasing power and provided greater flexibility for monetary and economic policy. However, food prices, energy costs and global commodity-price movements continued to remain important factors requiring monitoring.
viii. Government expenditure on infrastructure, connectivity, manufacturing capacity and other capital-intensive projects continued to support economic activity and create a favourable environment for private-sector investment.
ix. India continued to strengthen its position in global trade through diversification of export markets, expansion of services exports and greater integration with international supply chains. The countrys recent trade agreements and increasing market access also supported export opportunities. x. Despite the positive growth outlook, the Indian economy remained exposed to external risks including geopolitical tensions, global trade uncertainties, commodity-price volatility, changes in tariff structures and fluctuations in global financial conditions.
xi. Going forward, Indias growth prospects are expected to remain supported by strong domestic demand, infrastructure investment, manufacturing expansion, digitalisation, technological advancement and the continued growth of the services sector.
C. EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT & RISKS (FY 2025 26)
The global economic environment during FY 2025 26 remained challenging, with geopolitical tensions, trade-policy uncertainty, elevated energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains affecting international trade, investment and business sentiment. Despite these headwinds, the global economy demonstrated resilience. The IMF estimated global economic growth at 3.5% in 2025, supported by resilient domestic demand and strong technology-related investment. However, global growth is projected to moderate to 3.0% in 2026, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs. India continued to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies, supported by strong domestic consumption, services activity, investment and improving economic fundamentals. The latest official Indian estimate places Indias real GDP growth at approximately 7.8% for FY 2025 26. The external environment remained exposed to significant downside risks, including prolonged geopolitical conflicts, volatility in crude oil and other commodity prices, changing tariff and trade policies, supply-chain disruptions and tightening global financial conditions. Rising energy prices remained a particular risk for energy-importing economies. Higher crude oil prices can increase transportation and production costs, exert pressure on inflation and widen external-sector vulnerabilities. Global inflationary pressures also remained a concern. According to the IMFs July 2026 update, global headline inflation was estimated at 4.1% in 2025 and is projected to increase to 4.7% in 2026, reflecting higher energy and food prices. Global trade growth is expected to moderate as the effects of tariffs, trade restrictions and adjustments in global supply chains become more pronounced. At the same time, investment in artificial intelligence, digitalisation and technology continued to provide an important source of economic resilience.
Statements in the Management Discussion and Analysis describing the Companys objectives, projections, estimates and expectations are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of applicable securities laws and regulations. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Important factors that could make a difference to the Companys operations include economic conditions affecting demand/supply and price conditions in the domestic and overseas markets in which the Company operates; changes in the Government regulations; tax laws and other statutes and incidental factors.
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