Q2FY24 Preview: UPL: Revenue seen at Rs. 105,572 million, PAT at Rs. 3,347 million

27 Oct 2023 , 10:55 AM

Result date: October 30, 2023

Recommendation: Add

Target price: Rs. 655

Analysts at IIFL Capital Services expect another weak quarter for UPL with ~15% revenue decline as compared to the year-ago quarter, owing to price corrections in generic portfolio and continued destocking. Volume offtake is expected to remain flattish. Markets like North America, Europe, Brazil and India to witness decline owing to higher inventory levels while LatAm (ex-Brazil) and RoW are likely to deliver relatively better performance.

UPL’s gross margins are expected to contract by 200 basis points while EBITDA margins will further contract by 300 basis points; owing to higher overheads. Finance cost (excluding FX impact) to remain elevated on the back of rising global interest rates. Debt is expected to rise sequentially as the company prepares for the peak season in North America (working capital gets locked).

Profit After Tax (PAT) could decline 60.9% over the year-ago quarter.

Important management insights to watch out for:

• Update on reduction of debt 
• Outlook on growth, margins

Rs. Million	September 2023 estimates	YoY change	QoQ change
Revenue	105,572	(15.6)%	17.8%
EBITDA	18,813	(32.0)%	18.2%
EBITDA margin (%)	17.8%	(431) bps	6 bps
Profit After Tax	3,347	(60.9)%	60.1%

Source: IIFL Research