Q3FY24 Preview: Mahindra and Mahindra: Revenue seen at ₹258,663 Million, PAT at ₹22,557 Million

12 Feb 2024 , 12:25 PM

Result date: February 14, 2024

Recommendation: Add

Target price: ₹1,760

Mahindra and Mahindra (M&M) registered 20% year-on-year growth in auto volumes during the quarter, even as sales remained flat sequentially. Tractor volumes fell 4% over the year-ago quarter (amid weak demand), but grew 13% sequentially (aided by the seasonality factor). Analysts at IIFL Capital Services expect the company’s revenue share of tractors to increase from 24% in the September 2023 quarter to 26% in December. Overall revenue could grow 20% over the year-ago quarter and 6% sequentially.

Key sequential margin tailwinds include fall in precious metals and higher revenue share of tractors. On the other hand, key sequential margin headwinds include higher discounts and higher marketing spend. EBIT margin of the auto segment could come in at 7.4%, while that of tractors is seen at 16.5%. Overall EBITDA margin is pegged at 12.4%, down 59 basis points over the year-ago quarter and 20 basis points sequentially.

M&M’s Profit After Tax or PAT could grow 5% over the year ago quarter, but fall 26% sequentially.

Important management insights to watch out for:

• Demand trends across segments, markets
• Updates on pricing action and margins

₹ Million	December 2023 estimates	YoY change	QoQ change
Auto volumes	211,443	20.1%	(0.3)%
Tractor volumes	101,672	(3.9)%	12.9%
Revenue	258,663	19.5%	6.4%
EBITDA	32,096	14.1%	4.7%
EBITDA margin	12.4%	(59) bps	(20) bps
Profit After Tax	22,557	4.6%	(25.8)%

Source: IIFL Research