Commodities Buzz: IGC Says Global Grains Consumption Set To Fall For First Time In Seven Years

26 Sept 2022 , 03:01 PM

According to International Grains Council (IGC), at 2,256 million (m) tonnes (t), the forecast for 2022/23 world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) output is lifted by 8m m/m (month-on-month), as increases for wheat and barley (mainly for Russia, Canada and Australia) more than compensate for a downgraded US maize number. With the global consumption outlook little-changed from before, larger than previously estimated carry-ins, paired with the upgraded production figure, result in a 10m t uplift to closing stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years), mostly relating to a revision for Russia. The trade (Jul/Jun) forecast is similar to last time, seen 3% lower y/y (year-on-year). However, the world 2022/23 total grains production is forecast 2% below the previous seasons record, with y/y declines for maize (-51m t) and sorghum (-2m) contrasting with increases for wheat (+10m) and barley (+3m). Global consumption is projected to decline for the first time since 2015/16, seen almost 1% lower than the season before, on reduced demand for feed maize, while growth in food and industrial uptake is also projected to be slower than average. Even so, because of a sharper drop in supply, cumulative ending stocks are set to tighten, pegged 3% lower y/y, at 587m t. Total trade (Jul/Jun) is also forecast to drop by 3% y/y, to a three season low.Powered by Commodity Insights