India GDP declines by 6.6% in 2020-21, gross value added contracts by 4.8%: NSO's first revised estimates

1 Feb 2022 , 09:39 AM

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2020-21. Under the first revised estimates, India's GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the years 2020-21 and 2019-20 stands at Rs135.58 lakh cr and Rs145.16 lakh cr respectively, showing a contraction of 6.6 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 3.7 per cent during 2019-20.

Notably, nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for the year 2020-21 is estimated at Rs198.01 lakh crore as against Rs200.75 lakh crore for the year 2019-20, showing a contraction of 1.4 per cent during 2020-21 as compared to growth of 6.2 per cent during 2019-20.

At the aggregate level, nominal GVA at basic prices has declined by 1.6 per cent during 2020-21 against the growth of 6.9 per cent during 2019-20. In terms of real GVA, i.e., GVA at constant (2011-12) basic prices, there has been a contraction of 4.8 per cent in 2020-21, as against a growth of 3.8 per cent in 2019-20.

The growth rates of the Primary sector (comprising Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining & Quarrying), Secondary sector (comprising Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services, and Construction) and Tertiary sector (Services) have been estimated as 1.6 per cent, -2.8 per cent and -7.8 in 2020-21 as against a growth of 4.5 per cent, -1.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

The contraction in real GVA during 2020-21 is on account of contraction in ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’, ‘Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services’, ‘Construction’, ‘Trade, repair, Hotels and Restaurants’, ‘Transport’ and ‘Other services as may be seen from Statement 4.2. However, ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Communication & Services related to Broadcasting’, ‘Financial Services’, ‘Real Estate, Ownership of Dwelling & Professional Services’ and ‘Public Administration and Defence’ have witnessed modest growth during this period.

Nominal Net National Income (NNI) or NNI at current prices for the year 2020-21 stands at Rs171.94 lakh crore as against Rs177.17 lakh crore in 2019-20, showing a contraction of 2.9 per cent during 2020-21 as against a growth of 6.0 per cent in the previous year.

Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) at current prices is estimated at Rs200.86 lakh crore for the year 2020-21, while the estimate for the year 2019-20 stands at Rs204.22 lakh crore, showing a contraction of 1.6 per cent for the year 2020-21 as against a growth of 6.4 per cent in the year 2019-20.

Gross Saving during 2020-21 is estimated at Rs55.92 lakh crore against Rs59.96 lakh crore during 2019-20. The share of Non-financial corporations, Financial corporations, General Government and Household sectors in Gross Savings during 2020-21 stands at 35.6%, 10.0%, (-) 24.1% and 78.5% respectively. The rate of Gross Saving to GNDI for 2020-21 is estimated at 27.8 per cent as against 29.4 per cent for 2019-20.

Gross Capital Formation (GCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs54.03 lakh crore for the year 2020-21 as compared to Rs61.61 lakh crore during 2019-20. The rate of GCF to GDP is 27.3 per cent during 2020-21 as against 30.7 per cent in 2019-20. The rates of capital formation in the years 2011-12 to 2019-20 have been higher than the rate of saving because of positive net capital flow from RoW. The rate of GCF to GDP at constant (2011-12) prices was 34.1 per cent in 2019-20 and 31.5 per cent in 2020-21.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs120.33 lakh crore for the year 2020-21 as against Rs122.37 lakh crore in 2019-20. Concerning GDP, the rates of PFCE to GDP at current prices during 2019-20 and 2020-21 are 61.0 per cent and 60.8 per cent respectively. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs82.60 lakh crore and Rs77.64 lakh crore, respectively, for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21. The corresponding rates of PFCE to GDP for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21 are 56.9 per cent and 57.3 per cent respectively.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs23.93 lakh crore for the year 2020-21 as against Rs22.01 lakh crore during 2019-20. At constant (2011-12) prices the estimates of GFCE for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21 stand at Rs14.84 lakh crore and Rs15.38 lakh crore respectively.

Per Capita Income i.e. Per Capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at Rs1,32,115 and Rs1,26,855 respectively for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21. Per Capita PFCE at current prices for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21 is estimated at Rs91,254 and Rs88,775 respectively.