JIO strong; Bharti and Vi healthy in Telecom Sector: IIFL Securities

30 Jan 2024 , 12:43 PM

As per TRAI’s Nov-23 subscriber data, 1) JIO’s reported VLR (active) and mobile broadband net adds were healthy; 2) Bharti’s mobile broadband subscriber adds were healthy but it lost VLR subs; 3) Bharti’s 4G cumulative adds of 4.5mn in October and November are tracking in-line with analysts of IIFL Securities est. of 5.9mn adds for Q3; and 4) Vi continued to lose reported subs but added VLR and mobile broadband subs. On fixed broadband sub adds, both JIO and Bharti have surprisingly seen a slowdown in recent months. Based on TRAI subscriber data, analysts of IIFL Securities maintain their est. of 2% QoQ mobile revenue growth for Bharti. 

JIO led on reported sub adds: 

On a reported basis, JIO added 3.45mn mobile subs in November, higher than October. Bharti’s 1.75mn adds in November was highest in recent months and after a muted October (+0.35mn net adds). Vi’s sub loss narrowed down to 1.07mn from October’s elevated subscriber loss of 2.04mn. 

JIO led on active subs; Vi gained subs but Bharti lost: 

On active subs, JIO added 1.19mn in November vs. 1.84mn in October. Bharti’s active subs loss narrowed down to 0.42mn in November after losing 1.19mn in October. Vi added 0.14mn subs in November after losing 1.41mn active subs in October. As of end-November, JIO/Bharti/Vi had active sub base of 423mn/375mn/199mn. 

Bharti & JIO’s mobile broadband adds healthy: 

On mobile broadband subs (4G+5G), Bharti saw 3.98mn adds in November, above recent monthly average and JIO’s 3.45mn adds. Vi’s mobile broadband subs improved in November vs. 0.83mn sub loss in October. Bharti’s 4.5mn mobile broadband subs in October+November are tracking in-line with analysts of IIFL Securities est. of 5.9mn adds for Q3. 

Fixed BB: JIO’s and Bharti’s adds below recent monthly average: 

On fixed broadband subs, JIO’s 0.18mn and Bharti’s 0.11mn adds in November were below recent monthly average. BSNL reported 0.05mn adds, continuing its positive trend. JIO/Bharti/BSNL had 10.2mn/7.3mn/3.8mn fixed BB sub base as of end-November.