Indian Economy: Monthly Macro Dashboard

24 Nov 2023 , 10:54 AM

Sep/Oct HFI data shows: 1) Industrial/ Infra activity trends mixed, but freight traffic sees a sharp pickup. 2) Consumption trends affected by a shift in festive season as retail PV/2W sales contract; but expect pickup in Nov. 3) Weak FDI but strong ECB flows, as FII outflow continues for the second consecutive month. 4) Trade deficit hits a record high of $31.5bn, as rise in crude prices and higher gold imports result in the import bill shooting up. 5) International indicators stay weak, as crude softens and other commodities remain stable but soft. 

• Industrial/ Infra activity trends mixed in Sep/Oct – Production of coal and steel continues to clock a healthy 16.1%/9.1% YoY growth in Sep, though cement production slowed to 4.7% YoY (vs 19.3% YoY in Aug). Electricity/ bitumen consumption was also strong at 20.9%/ 20.5% YoY in Oct. Sep IIP growth slowed to a 3-month low of 5.8% YoY (vs 10.3% YoY in Aug), as a meagre 2% YoY growth in Consumer Goods most impacted the IIP growth.
• Freight traffic sees a sharp pickup – Railway freight traffic in Oct showed a pickup to 8.5% YoY growth. Port cargo traffic accelerated to 13.4% YoY growth, as did container traffic at 18.7% YoY in October.
• Consumption trends affected by a shift in festive season – Retail sales saw deceleration due to a shift in festive season this year, as PVs/2Ws witnessed 1.4%/12.1% YoY contraction in October. Expect strong acceleration in November – best to look at the combined Oct+Nov data. Air traffic also decelerated to 10.8% YoY in Oct (vs 18.4% YoY in Sep); November is expected to see further slowdown. Fuel consumption growth, too, slowed to 3.7% in Oct vs 8.1% in Sep. GST collections saw a pickup at 13.4% YoY in Oct, as Eway bill generation crossed 10crores for the first time ever.
• Mixed trends in rural (especially agri) – Wholesale tractor volumes declined 4.3% in Oct, but retail up 7.2%. Fertiliser volumes up 5.7% in Aug, but flat YTD. MNREGA demand sees a sharp pickup to 17.6% YoY in Oct, as unemployment also rises to 10.8%. Agri credit continues to grow at a solid 16.8% YoY in Sep.
• Surveys remain buoyant – CMIE consumer sentiment rose to 102 in Oct (almost near the pre-Covid levels of 105-106), with advances in urban and rural. PMIs — both Mfg. & Services — stay in a strong expansion zone at 55.5 & 58.4, respectively.
• FDI dries up but strong ECB flows, FPI outflows continue – Net FDI into India has been weak YTD – only $4.5bn in FY24 vs $19.6bn in FY23. However, ECB flows have picked up – YTD $29bn vs $11bn in FY23. FPI equity flows continued to be negative (-$2.7bn) in Oct for the second month, as MF inflows remain steady. At $586bn, FX reserves remained steady in October.
• Trade deficit widens as imports pick up sharply – Trade deficit for October came in at a record high of $31.5bn — up sharply from $19.4bn in Sep — as imports rose by 21% MoM, while exports contracted by 2% MoM. Spike in global crude prices saw the import bill for petroleum products rise 26% MoM. Imports for gold & silver also witnessed 102% MoM rise. Services surplus continues to expand, coming in at $14.4bn in October.
• International indicators wobbly – M2/M3 growth in the US/EU is running negative, while for China it is at 10% YoY. Inflation in the US/EU is easing gradually, but it is still high vs the target. Exports and imports have been declining since the past many months for US, EU and China. Yields in US have come off after a major spike. Consumer confidence is struggling to pick up, as PMI for USA and China stays near the baseline of 50, while for EU it is in contraction zone (46.5 composite PMI for October) since the last few months.
• Demand weakness seen in Commodities – After a brief surge to $95/bbl in Oct, Brent has now cooled to $82/bbl currently. This is despite multiple supply cuts and new geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Other commodities i.e. Metals and Food have hardly budged from the recent lows. LME metals stay near the 3,700 level currently, while the CRB food index is slightly down to 520. Growth fears seem to have resurfaced.