Fertilizer imports from Russia rising

28 Nov 2022 , 11:12 AM

In their latest report, analysts at IIFL Securities analyze imports of key Bulk Chemicals during H1FY23 and highlight trends. Some of them are listed below.

Imports of DAP and NPK rise in H1FY23

Imports of DAP and other phosphatic fertilizers rose ~8% and ~39% YoY in H1FY23, driven by improved availability – especially from Russia – which seems to have made fertilisers available at attractive discount to Indian buyers. The increase in imports from Russia has offset the decline in imports from China. DAP, imported from Russia, constituted ~17% of total H1FY23 imports (versus nil last year).

Mixed trend in imports from China

While imports of PVC and Soda Ash from China gained traction, phenol imported from China and Taiwan declined ~37% YoY in H1FY23. However, the intensity of PVC imports at ~93K Mt was much lower in September 2022 versus average of 1.45lac Mt (since March 2022). TAN supply disruptions, on Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to ~21% drop in imports and ~176% spike in realizations in H1FY23 (versus H1FY22).

India continues to be net exporter of Caustic Soda

Lower production in Europe has seen India emerging as an exporter of caustic soda lye to the region this fiscal, despite the high logistical cost. Chlorine is an important raw material for several Upstream Chemicals – the production of which – has been curtailed due to high energy costs and weak demand conditions. Analysts at IIFL Securities therefore, expect this trend to continue, given that European chlorine demand is under pressure that will keep caustic soda production in check.