Lithium constraints might make salt the star of the EV move

According to BloombergNEF, automakers who had to deal with soaring prices for lithium and other battery metals last year may use sodium-based cells more frequently going forward, reducing the strain on raw materials as demand for EVs rises.

According to a recent examination of the technology, BloombergNEF predicts that by 2035, sodium may displace around 272,000 tonnes of the need for lithium from China’s low-cost, entry-level automotive industry. That is anticipated to represent around 7% of the total market in that year. The changeover might be even more forceful if prolonged lithium shortages materialize, according to BNEF in its analysis released on Thursday.

Although sodium is widely found in rock salts and brines around the world, its performance was inferior to that of other battery metals. The introduction of low-cost EVs in China that use sodium-based cells could be a turning point for the technology.

The promise of sodium-based batteries has spurred considerable debate about whether they could become well-known enough to help reduce lithium shortages as demand for mainstream and high-end EVs continues to soar, even though mass commercialization may still be a few years away.

In a worst-case scenario, sodium replacement in the mainstream automobile market might lower global lithium demand by 37%, the equivalent of 1.4 million tonnes, if lithium miners are unable to keep up with consumption spikes caused by the next generation of high-end batteries.

Forecasting the future growth of the business has proven to be a difficult and contentious endeavour because both supply and demand for battery metals are expanding at an exponential rate.

Within the next few years, technological advancements in extraction methods and battery chemistries could have a significant impact on the market, prompting some analysts to predict significant rallies while others, like Goldman Sachs Group Inc., claim there is no end in sight to the current price slump.

For consumers who must choose who is correct, the potential success of sodium-ion batteries is already becoming too great to ignore.

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