Q3 GDP at 4.7%

India Infoline News Service | Mumbai |

Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2013-14 is estimated at Rs14.8 lakh crore,

Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q3 of 2013-14 is estimated at Rs14.8 lakh crore, as against  Rs14.1 lakh crore in Q3 of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.7% over the corresponding quarter of previous year. 

As per the revision policy*, quarterly estimates and growth rates of 2011-12 and 2012-13 have undergone revision on account of revision in annual estimates of 2011-12 and 2012-13.However, the growth rates  of Q1 and Q2 estimates of 2013-14 have not been revised and would undergo revision only at the time of the release of fourth quarter estimates and Provisional estimates for the year 2013-14 to be released on 31st May 2014. Therefore,  Q1 and Q2 GDP estimates given in this release are based on Provisional estimates of 2012-13  released in May 2013,  while the Q3 estimates  are based on the First Revised estimates  of 2013-14 released in January 2014.

The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q3 of 2013-14 over Q3 of 2012-13 are, ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 12.5 per cent, ‘community, social & personal services’ at 7.0 per cent, ‘electricity, gas & water supply’ at 5.0 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 4.3 per cent and ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ at 3.6 per cent. The growth rate in ‘construction’, ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘manufacturing’ is estimated at 0.6 percent, (-) 1.6 per cent and (-)1.9 per cent, respectively in this period. 
 
According to the second advance estimates of production of crops released on 14.02.2013 by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in Q3 of 2013-14, the production of foodgrains  during the Kharif season of 2013-14 is estimated to grow by 0.2 per cent over the corresponding season in the previous agriculture year.  Among the commercial crops, the production of oilseeds is estimated to grow by 6.0 per cent during the Kharif season of 2013-14, while the production of sugarcane and cotton is estimated to have grown by 1.4 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively, during the agriculture year 2013-14. Among the horticulture crops production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 4.1 percent during the year 2013-14 over the previous agriculture year.
 
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 0.3 per cent, (-) 2.0 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2013-14, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 3.0 per cent, 2.5 per cent and 4.4 per cent in these sectors in Q3 of 2012-13.  In the mining sector, production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of (-)0.7 per cent and 0.6 per cent in Q3 of 2013-14, as against the growth rates of 3.0 per cent and 0.4 per cent in Q3 of 2012-13. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement production and finished steel consumption  registered growth rates of 2.0 per cent and (-)0.1 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2013-14.
 

Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of (-)0.3 per cent and (-)1.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2013-14, as against the growth rates of 0.1 per cent and 3.1 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of (-) 24.6 per cent, 0.9 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 7.8 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2013-14 over Q3 of 2012-13.  The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 15.9 per cent and 14.5 per cent, respectively during April-December, 2013-14 over the corresponding period in 2012-13. 
 

At current prices
GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q3 of 2013-14, is estimated at  `27.7 lakh crore, as against  `24.6 lakh crore in Q3, 2012-13, showing an increase of 12.8 per cent. 
 
The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups food articles, non-food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 17.2 per cent, 6.9 per cent, 17.0 per cent, 3.0 per cent, 2.8 per cent, 23.4 per cent  and 7.0 per cent, respectively during Q3 of 2013-14 over Q3 of 2012-13. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 10.6 per cent during Q3 of 2013-14 over Q3 of 2012-13.
 

ESTIMATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES, 2013-14

GDP at current market price is estimated at `30.0 lakh crore in Q3,2013-14 as against `26.6 lakh crore in Q3,2012-13 showing an increase of 12.6 per cent. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GDP at market price is estimated at `16.0 lakh crore in Q3,2013-14 as against `15.3 lakh crore in Q3,2012-13 showing an increase of 4.6 percent over the previous year. The estimates of GDP at market prices are derived at by adding net indirect taxes( indirect taxes – subsidies) to GDP at factor cost. The indirect taxes and subsidies have been compiled using the Government accounts data available upto December 2013. Major subsidies registered growth of 22.1 percent  and indirect tax revenue of the Central Government including Customs, excise and service tax have shown a growth of 1.6 per cent, (-) 4.9 percent and 25.1  percent  respectively during Q3 of 2013-14. 
 

ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices.  The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure11. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `17.4 lakh crore in Q3 of 2013-14 as against  `15.6 lakh crore in Q3 of 2012-13.  At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at  `9.8 lakh crore in Q3 of 2013-14 as against  `9.6 lakh crore in Q3 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2013-14 are estimated at 58.2 per cent and 61.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 58.9 per cent and 62.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13.
 
Government Final Consumption Expenditure12.  Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at  `3.8 lakh  crore  in  Q3 of  2013-14 as against  `3.3 lakh crore in Q3 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at  `1.9 lakh  crore in Q3 of 2013-14 as against  `1.8 lakh crore in Q3 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2013-14 are estimated at 12.7 per cent and 12.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 12.6 per cent and 12.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13.
 
Gross Fixed Capital Formation13.       Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at  `8.1 lakh   crore in Q3 of 2013-14 as against  `7.8 lakh crore in Q3 of 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at  `5.0 lakh crore in Q3 of 2013-14  as against the last year’s estimate which is also  `5.0 lakh  crore in Q3 of 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q3 of 2013-14 are estimated at 27.0  per cent and 31.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.2 per cent and 33.0 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2012-13.
 
Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP at market prices for Q3 and April-December, 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

 

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