Story of 7 key macro signals for the week to January 03, 2026

6 Dec 2025 , 10:47 AM

NEW YEAR COULD AGAIN BE ABOUT METALS STORY

If the year 2025 belonged to the precious metals, the year 2026 may once again belong to the commodities. According to experts, the only difference is that this time around, it could be the industrial metals like copper, aluminium, zinc, etc taking on leadership role.

These industrial metals are already facing a sharp shortfall in supply globally, even as there are new applications like defence, alternate energy, aerospace, electrical vehicles, and data centres that will enhance the demand for these industrial metals. Copper has been rallying.

In terms of specific data points, the coming week will see the first estimate of full-year FY26 GDP growth rate announced; and should be hopefully an optimistic picture. The US BLS will also announce the unemployment figure, which will hold the key to a January Fed rate cut.

• US BOND YIELDS EDGE UP DURING THE WEEK

The table captures US 10-year benchmark bond yields over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
02-Jan-26	4.189	4.195	4.197	4.149
01-Jan-26	4.175	4.177	4.182	4.173
31-Dec-25	4.153	4.130	4.171	4.104
30-Dec-25	4.128	4.108	4.143	4.104
29-Dec-25	4.116	4.130	4.141	4.104
26-Dec-25	4.134	4.137	4.153	4.110

Data Source: Bloomberg

US bond yields bounced from 4.134% to 4.189%. The bounce came after unemployment rate expectations for December were lowered from 4.6% to 4.5%. The data is expected next week. Rise in bond yields can also be ascribed to bond selling pushing down prices. For the week, the US 10-year bond yields touched a high of 4.197% and low of 4.104%.

• US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY); LOOKS TAD BETTER

Here is the US dollar strength index (DXY) over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
02-Jan-26	98.42	98.24	98.49	98.14
01-Jan-26	98.32	98.25	98.50	98.18
31-Dec-25	98.32	98.25	98.50	98.18
30-Dec-25	98.24	98.01	98.27	97.94
29-Dec-25	98.04	98.05	98.18	97.92
26-Dec-25	98.02	97.92	98.13	97.86

Data Source: Bloomberg

While the 100 levels may still be elusive, the dollar index hardened 40 bps in the week. This can be largely attributed to the better-than-expected GDP growth rate of 4.3% for Q3-2025; with hopes of an uptick in Q4 GDP too. For the year, dollar was down over 10% yoy. The US dollar index (DXY) touched a high of 98.50 and a low of 97.92 this week.

• INDIA BENCHMARK YIELDS HARDEN MARGINALLY

The table below captures 10-year India bond yields for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (%)	Open (%)	High (%)	Low (%)
02-Jan-26	6.609	6.581	6.624	6.578
01-Jan-26	6.581	6.588	6.617	6.581
31-Dec-25	6.588	6.576	6.604	6.569
30-Dec-25	6.576	6.595	6.602	6.576
29-Dec-25	6.595	6.560	6.595	6.560
26-Dec-25	6.560	6.538	6.574	6.537

Data Source: RBI

For the week, the India bond yields edged up from 6.560% to 6.609%. While rate cut expectations are still there, markets reflected record NRI flows of $129 Billion. Also, the prospects of a higher-than-expected fiscal deficit pushed up the bond yields for the week Last week, India 10-year bond yields touched a high of 6.624% and a low of 6.560%.

• RUPEE AGAIN WEAKENS BEYOND 90 AFTER 2 WEEKS

The table captures the official USDINR exchange rate for last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price (₹/$)	Open (₹/$)	High (₹/$)	Low (₹/$)
02-Jan-26	90.014	89.942	90.255	89.864
01-Jan-26	89.968	89.955	89.993	89.865
31-Dec-25	89.871	89.780	90.001	89.727
30-Dec-25	89.770	89.974	90.020	89.687
29-Dec-25	89.900	89.837	89.993	89.830
26-Dec-25	89.796	89.753	89.962	89.697

Data Source: RBI

After a gap of over 2 weeks, the Indian rupee gave a close beyond ₹90/$, as RBI limited its support to the Indian rupee. During the week, the rupee closed on all days below ₹90/$, except on Friday. RBI is apparently testing waters beyond the 90/$ mark. USDINR touched a weekly high of ₹89.687/$ and a low of ₹90.255/$.

• BRENT CRUDE FALLS ON SUPPLY CONCERNS

The table captures the Brent Crude prices over last 5 trading sessions.

Date	Price ($/bbl)	Open ($/bbl)	High ($/bbl)	Low ($/bbl)
02-Jan-26	60.75	60.86	61.38	60.01
01-Jan-26	60.85	61.33	61.92	60.63
31-Dec-25	60.85	61.33	61.92	60.63
30-Dec-25	61.92	61.56	62.32	61.45
29-Dec-25	61.94	60.91	62.19	60.87
26-Dec-25	60.64	62.30	62.67	60.56

Data Source: Bloomberg

Brent prices opened the week higher at $62.07/bbl but closed almost flat at $60.64/bbl. The pressure was visible after discounts on Russian crude widened to $25-30/bbl. There is already pressure on crude prices due to expected oversupply from OPEC and US shale. Brent touched a high of $62.73/bbl and a low of $60.53/bbl during the week.

• SPOT GOLD WITNESSES YEAR-END CORRECTION

The table captures international spot prices of gold in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
02-Jan-26	4,330.50	4,333.00	4,402.53	4,310.01
01-Jan-26	4,348.35	4,329.42	4,351.65	4,324.42
31-Dec-25	4,315.09	4,346.47	4,373.89	4,274.51
30-Dec-25	4,346.51	4,332.09	4,404.51	4,323.33
29-Dec-25	4,332.08	4,540.70	4,550.10	4,303.75
26-Dec-25	4,532.63	4,479.64	4,550.11	4,475.10

Data Source: Bloomberg

The week saw Spot Gold falling -4.5% from $4,532.63/oz to $4,330.50/oz. In India, spot 24K gold rallied to ₹1,37,837 per 10 grams. However, the correction looks more like a year-end position adjustment as brokers like UBS still peg gold at above $5,000/oz in 2026 amid low Fed rates. The weekly high for gold was $4,550.10/oz and low was $4,303.75/oz.

• SPOT SILVER HALTS AFTER FRENETIC RALLY

The table captures international spot prices of Silver in dollars per troy ounce (oz).

Date	Price ($/oz)	Open ($/oz)	High ($/oz)	Low ($/oz)
02-Jan-26	72.6600	71.2950	74.5750	71.2950
01-Jan-26	72.6835	72.4210	72.9750	71.1360
31-Dec-25	71.2928	76.5065	76.5135	70.0604
30-Dec-25	76.5000	72.2496	78.0850	71.1517
29-Dec-25	72.2468	80.2250	83.6450	70.5250
26-Dec-25	79.1609	71.9650	79.3274	71.9650

Data Source: Bloomberg

After 4 weeks of defying gravity, spot silver corrected by -8.21% this week to $72.66/oz. In India, silver tapered to ₹2,38,000 per KG level. However, markets still expect upsides on silver due to demand from electronics, alternate energy, and defence applications. Silver and gold are likely to move higher as silver leads the Gold-Silver ratio battle!