GLOBAL ECONOMY1
The global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries. After peaking at 9.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, the headline inflation will fall to 3.5 percent by the end of next year, slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic. In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks.
The global economy remained unusually resilient throughout the disinflationary process. Growth is steady at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, but some low-income and developing economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to intensifying conflicts.
The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement. The surge and subsequent decline in inflation reflects a unique combination of shocks: broad supply disruptions coupled with strong demand pressures in the wake of the pandemic, followed by sharp spikes in commodity prices caused by the war in Ukraine.
These shocks led to an upward shift and a steepening of the relationship between activity and inflation, the Phillips curve. As supply disruptions eased and tight monetary policy started to constrain demand, normalization in labor markets allowed inflation to decline rapidly without a major slowdown in activity.
Clearly, much of the disinflation can be attributed to the unwinding of the shocks themselves, together with improvements in labor supply, often linked to increased immigration. But monetary policy played a decisive role by keeping inflation expectations anchored, avoiding deleterious wage-price spirals, and a repeat of the disastrous inflation experience of the 1970s.
Despite the good news on inflation, downside risks are increasing and now dominate the outlook. An escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, could pose serious risks for commodity markets. Shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies can significantly lower output relative to our baseline forecast. Monetary policy could remain too tight for too long, and global finance.
INDIAN ECONOMY2
Indias real GDP growth for the fourth quarter (Q4) of financial year 2024-25 (FY25) stood at 7.4 per cent, according to data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO). For the full financial year 2024-25, real GDP growth stood at 6.5 per cent, beating forecasts and maintaining its status as the worlds fastest-growing economy.
Private consumption regained its primacy as the growth driver, with a 7.2% growth rate, while capital formation and government spending lost momentum. The agriculture sector showed resilience with a 4.6% growth rate, whereas manufacturing experienced a slowdown with a 4.5% growth rate.
The services sector, accounting for over half of the Gross Value Added (GVA), grew at 7.2% in 2024-25. Indias GDP is now estimated to be $3.9 trillion, and the country is expected to become the fourth-largest economy in the world with a GDP of $4.3 trillion in 2025-26. The fiscal deficit fell sharply from 5.6% in 2023-24 to 4.8% in 2024-25, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected a GDP growth of 6.5% for 2025-26 1
The challenges India is facing are unnanticipated global shocks, such as supply line disruptions to crude oil markets and weather shocks that impact agriculture output. Geopolitical uncertainties and global trade disruptions affecting exports and the broader economy.
GLOBAL TEXTILE
The global textile market size was estimated at USD 1.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.61 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2025 to 2033. The demand for textiles is rising due to fast fashion, growing urbanization, and increasing disposable incomes in emerging economies. Consumer preferences are shifting toward trendy, comfortable, and affordable clothing, fueling retail apparel demand. Asia Pacific dominated the textile market with the largest revenue share of 49.5% in 2024, due to its vast manufacturing base, low labor costs, and strong export infrastructure. Countries such as China, India, and Bangladesh dominate global production and exports. The rise of domestic consumption in Southeast Asia and India is creating a dual demand-driver. The U.S. textile industry is shifting toward domestic innovation, sustainability, and technical textiles.Vertical integration by large manufacturers is increasing, but localized and unorganized players continue to hold a notable share, especially in developing economiesThe threat of substitutes is moderate. While synthetic and natural fibers compete with each other, innovations in bio-based materials may challenge conventional cotton and polyester i(https://www.imf.org.as inflation recedes, global economy needs policy)
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(https://www.news18.com/business/economy/indias-gdp-grows and https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ india-economy-grew-6-5-in-fy25-beating-forecasts)COTTON OUTLOOK
Cotton dominated the market and accounted for the largest revenue share of 39.3% in 2024, due to its natural origin, breathability, softness, and widespread consumer preference, especially in apparel and home textiles. It is particularly favored in tropical and subtropical regions for its comfort in warm climates. Cottons versatility allows its use across diverse segments, from casual wear to medical and industrial applications. In addition, global efforts to promote sustainable and organic cotton farming are boosting its market appeal. Major producing countries such as India, China, and the U.S. support a steady supply chain. Despite competition from synthetic fibers, cotton maintains a strong market share due to its biodegradability and eco-friendly perception.
INDIAN TEXTILE
Indias textile industry has shown significant growth in FY 2024-25, with exports rising by 6.32% to $36.606 billion. Apparel exports increased by 10.03% to $15.989 billion, while textile exports grew by 3.61% to $20.617 billion. The market is largely MSME-based and primarily dependent on the domestic sector, which focuses heavily on high-street retail and local brands. However, with the rapid expansion of organised retail especially brands like Zudio and others across Tier 1, 2, and 3 cities competition has intensified. This has resulted in reduced footfall for high-street shops. On the other hand, many manufacturers are shifting to FOB (Free on Board) and private label business models, but these also operate on very thin margins. So overall, its a tough time for Indian garment manufacturers, both in the domestic and private label segments.
In domestic market, factors like labour shortages and inability to innovate and adapt are also one of the main obstacle in growth. As compared to domestic market, international market is still performing better. Export performance is showing signs of steady recovery, supported by a 7 per cent increase in textile and apparel shipments between April and October of FY 2024-25. The Indian garment industry stands at a promising juncture, with several opportunities ready to be tapped. Although the industry is balancing between uncertainty and possibility. By identifying and seizing the right opportunities, India can not only stay ahead in the global race but also redefine its role as a leader in the world of apparel.
INDIAN COTTON OUTLOOK
According to the report, total cotton supply up to the end of June 2025 is estimated at 356.76 lakh bales. This includes market arrivals (pressings) of 296.57 lakh bales, imports of 30 lakh bales, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, as estimated by CAI.
Further, the industry body has estimated domestic cotton consumption up to the end of June 2025 at 233.50 lakh bales, while export shipments are pegged at 15.25 lakh bales. The stock at the end of June 2025 is estimated at 108.01 lakh bales, which includes 32 lakh bales held by textile mills and the remaining 76.01 lakh bales with the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, and others including multinational companies, traders, ginners, and exporters. Cotton that has been sold but not yet delivered is also included in this figure.
The closing stock at the end of the 2024-25 season, as of September 30, 2025, is projected at 55.59 lakh bales, significantly higher than the 30.19 lakh bales recorded at the end of the previous season.
FINANCIAL REVIEW
Particulars |
2024-25 | 2023-24 | Change | Reason |
Revenue from Operations | 13424.32 | 14138.87 | -5.05% | - |
Operating Profit (EBITDA) | 772.89 | 963.68 | -19.80% | - |
Finance Cost | 198.68 | 227.14 | -12.53% | - |
Depreciation Cost | 330.62 | 292.88 | 12.88% | - |
Profit Before tax | 243.59 | 443.65 | -45.09% | The surge in cotton prices, which doubled in 18 months, has significantly impacted the industrys profitability. Also Weak demand, both domestically and internationally, has led to a decline in finished goods prices. Continuous electricity outage . |
Profit After Tax | 179.60 | 331.35 | -45.80% | The surge in cotton prices, which doubled in 18 months, has significantly impacted the industrys profitability. Also Weak demand, both domestically and internationally, has led to a decline in finished goods prices. Continuous electricity outage . |
At Avi Ansh Textile, we foster a culture of meritocracy, where every individual has equal opportunities to grow and succeed. We believe in empowering women through employment, providing them with a safe and comfortable work environment that encourages their participation and contribution. We invest in our employees growth and development through regular skill and knowledge enhancement programs, equipping them with the tools and expertise needed to excel in their roles. Our industrial relations remained peaceful and harmonious throughout the year, reflecting our commitment to maintaining a positive and productive work environment.
INTERNAL CONTROL SYSTEM AND ADEQUACIES
To make sure that company is up-to-date with the industry standard, it regularly reviews and updates its internal controls and measures itself with industry standards. In order to stay compliant the dynamics of evolving business requirements , legal compliances and corporate governance are incorporated into current systems after a thorough evaluation with regard to the expectations of business partners , such as customers , institutions and compliance needs . Senior management keeps an eye on the internal audits suggestions for ongoing system updates. The infrastructure of IT system is upgraded frequently to facilitate improved controls and corporate decision making to make sure that the company is not lagging in technology and is at par with the industry.
Segment-wise and Product-wise performance
Particulars |
Yarn | Fabric | Garment |
Sale | 97.22cr | 29.91cr | 7.10cr |
Production | 5237435 kg | 1414133kg | 713546 pieces |
Opportunities and Threats
1. Indias cotton yarn segment is poised for a healthy 7-9% revenue growth in FY26. This rebound is fueled by renewed export demand, especially from China and Steady domestic consumption, particularly from Ready-Made Garments (RMG) and Home Textiles (HT).After a harsh 22% drop in FY24 revenue due to price declines, FY25 and FY26 are expected to see recovery, supported by increased volumes and slightly higher price realizations.
However, domestic cotton remains pricey. With Indian cotton costing ~83-84 US cents/lb against NY futures at ~67-69 cents, this cost gap squeezes margins.
To stabilize prices, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) is planning to procure 10 million bales a move that could prevent oversupply and support the market.
2. Indias polyester yarn sector faces a flat revenue outlook, but with a silver lining improving margins. Imports are down, helping domestic players. Policies like Minimum Import Price (MIP) and Quality Control Order (QCO) are working. Falling crude oil prices lower input costs, boosting profits.
Margins could rise to around 6.75% in FY26, compared to just over 5% in FY24. Thats a notable improvement, even if topline growth remains modest. But theres a formidable competitor in sight China. With a 62% global export share and massive integrated capacity, Chinas dominance in polyester yarn continues to limit Indias export opportunities unless large-scale investments are made.
3. In textile industry companies do face a lot of geographical challenges such as natural disaster, climate, resource availability, power supply issues depending upon the location of the manufacturing unit. Avi Ansh Textile is encountering geographical challenges due to the current government of Punjabs policies and excessive electricity load on the Dera-Bassi Industrial Area which is causing frequent electricity outages. This is disrupting heavy machine operations and leading to fixed labor costs being incurred despite the operational disruptions. Although the issue has been raised to the concerned authority by the companies and adequate action from the authorities is awaited.
4. The Indian government has introduced policies like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme and the PM MITRA scheme to boost investment, enhance infrastructure, and promote exports in the Textile. Indias rising middle class is expected to drive demand for clothing, home textiles, and other textile products, presenting opportunities for growth. Also, Indias textile industry can benefit from the growing global demand for textiles, particularly in the US and EU markets
5. Countries like India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam are now under serious consideration as alternative supply hubs. India also benefits from the upcoming India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
6. While US tariffs directly affect only 3-5% of Indias yarn exports, the indirect boost to downstream segments like garments and home textiles could uplift demand for yarn domestically.
7. Theres a subtle but powerful shift happening in global trade. As tensions rise between the US and China, global buyers are diversifying sourcing away from China.
Place: New Delhi |
On Behalf of the Board of Directors |
|
Date: August 18, 2025 |
Avi Ansh Textile Limited |
|
ANIL KUMAR JAIN |
GEETA JAIN |
|
Managing Director |
Director |
|
DIN : 00150070 |
DIN : 00153074 |
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