1. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
1.1 Global Economy Review
The global economy demonstrated resilience through CY2025 despite navigating an increasingly complex macroeconomic landscape marked by moderating inflation, evolving monetary policies, heightened geopolitical tensions and shifting global trade dynamics. According to IMF, global GDP expanded by 3.4% during the year, supported by resilient consumer spending, healthy labour markets and sustained public and private investments across major economies. However, growth remained below the historical average as policy uncertainty, rising trade barriers and geopolitical conflicts continued to weigh on investment, manufacturing activity and global trade. While the services sector remained a key driver of economic activity, industrial production and merchandise trade experienced relatively subdued growth amid weakening external demand and changing trade patterns. Global trade continued to undergo structural transformation. Heightened geopolitical tensions, changing tariff regimes and industrial policy interventions accelerated the diversification of global supply chains, encouraging companies to regionalise production networks and reduce dependence on single-country sourcing. At the same time, continued disruptions across the Red Sea shipping corridor and other strategic maritime routes increased freight costs, lengthened transit times and created logistical uncertainties for globally traded commodities. Although businesses adapted through alternative shipping routes and inventory management strategies, supply chain resilience remained a strategic priority for manufacturing sector.
Trade policy also assumed greater strategic significance during the year. Alongside increasing trade fragmentation and localisation of manufacturing, sustainability emerged as an important determinant of global competitiveness. The European Union continued advancing the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), reinforcing the transition towards carbon-accountable trade for emissions intensive sectors such as steel. The evolving regulatory landscape accelerated investments in cleaner production technologies, energy and emissions transparency while encouraging manufacturers to strengthen their decarbonisation roadmaps. These developments are expected to reshape global trade competitiveness and reinforce the importance of low-carbon manufacturing across industrial value chains.
Technology-led investments emerged as another defining feature of the global economy during CY2025.
Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing and advanced digital technologies triggered significant capital expenditure in hyperscale data centres, semiconductor manufacturing and digital infrastructure. The accelerating deployment of AI significantly increased demand for electricity, transmission networks and high-performance computing facilities, prompting substantial investments in power infrastructure across several economies. This technological transformation not only strengthened productivity prospects but also created new avenues of long-term demand for infrastructure, engineering and steel-intensive construction.
The global energy transition gathered further momentum during the year as countries accelerated investments in renewable energy, electricity transmission networks, battery storage, green hydrogen and critical mineral supply chains. Rising electricity demand from industrial electrification, electric mobility and AI-enabled digital infrastructure reinforced the need for large-scale investments in generation capacity and grid modernisation. Simultaneously, concerns around energy security and resource availability encouraged governments to strengthen domestic manufacturing capabilities and diversify critical mineral sourcing. Together, these structural investments continued to support industrial activity while creating long-term opportunities across infrastructure, manufacturing and engineering sectors.
Inflationary pressures eased considerably across most economies during CY2025 as supply-side disruptions moderated and the cumulative impact of earlier monetary tightening continued to take effect. According to the IMF, global headline inflation moderated to 4.1%, although price trends remained uneven across regions.
Inflation in advanced economies eased to 2.5%, while emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomiescontinued to experience relatively higher inflation of 5.2%, reflecting greater exposure to food and energy price volatility, exchange-rate movements and domestic demand conditions. Although services inflation remained relatively persistent in several advanced economies, improving inflation dynamics enabled many central banks to gradually shift towards a more balanced and data-dependent monetary policy approach.
Economic performance continued to vary across regions. The United States remained resilient, supported by strong consumer spending, technology investments and favourable financial conditions, while growth across the Euro Area recovered gradually as easing inflation and policy support improved domestic demand despite continued weakness in manufacturing. Chinas economy remained supported by exports and advanced manufacturing, although domestic consumption and the property sector continued to face structural challenges. Emerging market and developing economies remained the principal contributors to global growth, benefitting from infrastructure investments, manufacturing expansion and resilient domestic demand, even as commodity-importing economies faced pressures from higher energycostsandtighterexternalfinancingconditions.
Global labour markets remained broadly resilient despite moderating economic activity. Employment conditions remained relatively strong across major economies, supporting improvements in real wage growth and household purchasing power. While labour demand gradually normalised from post-pandemic highs, structural challenges — including demographic shifts, skill shortages and slowing productivity growth — continued to constrain labour availability in several advanced economies. At the same time, accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence and automation continued to reshape workforce requirements, encouraging greater investments in digital capabilities, advanced manufacturing and productivity-enhancing technologies.
Overall, CY2025 reinforced that the global economy is increasingly being shaped by structural transformations rather than cyclical recovery alone.
Geopolitical realignments, supply chain diversification, sustainability-led trade policies, rapid technological advancement and the global energy transition are fundamentally reshaping investment priorities and industrial competitiveness. For the steel industry, these trends are expected to drive sustained demand through infrastructure development, renewable energy expansion, power transmission, digital infrastructure and advanced manufacturing, while simultaneously accelerating the transition towards low-carbon production and more resilient global supply chains.
1.2 Global Economic Outlook
The global economy is expected to remain resilient yet navigate a more challenging and uncertain operating environment over the medium term. According to the IMF, global GDP growth is projected to moderate to 3.1% in CY2026 before improving marginally to 3.2% in CY2027, remaining below the historical average. While easing financial conditions and continued investments in infrastructure, technology and industrial capacity are expected to support economic activity, elevated geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation and pressures are likely to continue influencing the pace of global growth.
Regional growth prospects are expected to remain uneven. Advanced Economies are projected to grow by 1.8% in CY2026 and 1.7% in CY2027, reflecting modest domestic demand, demographic challenges and elevated fiscal pressures. In contrast, Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are expected to remain the primary drivers of global growth, with economic expansion projected at 3.9% in CY2026 and 4.2% in CY2027, supported by stronger domestic consumption, infrastructure investments and manufacturing activity. However, external financing conditions, commodity price volatility and geopolitical developmentsareexpected to continueinfluencing growth trajectories across several emerging economies.
Despite these near-term challenges, several structural factors continue to support the medium-term outlook. Continued investments in digitalisation, artificial intelligence, infrastructure and energy transition are expected to strengthen productivity and support long-term growth. At the same time, easing trade tensions, improved international policy coordination and credible macroeconomic frameworks could provide additional support to global economic activity. However, downside risks remain elevated, including a prolonged geopolitical conflicts, further trade fragmentation, persistently high public debt, tighter financial conditions and slower-than-expected productivity gains. Policymakers are therefore expected to focus on strengthening economic resilience, preserving financia l stability and implementing structural reforms to support sustainable long-term growth.
Global GDP Growth Trend (%)
Source: IMF WEO April 2026
*Emerging Market and Developing Economies
1.3 Advanced Economies (AE)
Growth across advanced economies remained modest during CY2025 as heightened geopolitical tensions, evolving trade policies, fiscal pressures and structural demographic challenges continued to weigh on economic activity. According to the IMF, advanced economies expanded by 1.9% in CY2025, supported by resilient labour markets, easing inflation and improving financial conditions, despite subdued industrial activity and softer external demand. Growth is projected to moderate slightly to 1.8% in CY2026 and 1.7% in CY2027, remaining below historical averages as policy uncertainty, weaker productivity growth and elevated public debt continue to constrain the pace of expansion.
The United States remained the strongest-performing major advanced economy, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust business investment and continued technology-led capital expenditure, particularly in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. However, growth is expected to moderate over the forecast period as higher trade barriers, fiscal consolidation and slowing domestic demand gradually temper economic activity.
The Euro Area experienced a gradual recovery during CY2025 as easing inflation supported household consumption and improving financial conditions aided investment. Nevertheless, manufacturing activity remained subdued amid weaker external demand, elevated energy costs and structural competitiveness challenges, particularly in Germany. Public investments in infrastructure, clean energy and industrial transformation are expected to provide moderate support to regional growth over the medium term. Across other advanced economies, economic conditions remained mixed. Japan benefitted from improving domestic demand and stronger wage growth, although external demand remained relatively subdued, while the United Kingdom continued to record moderate expansion supported by easing inflation and resilient services activity. Overall, monetary policy across advanced economies is expected to remain cautious and data dependent as central banks balance inflation management with supporting sustainable economic growth amid an increasingly uncertain global environment.
Advanced Economies Growth Forecast (%)
| CY2025 | CY2026 | CY2027 | |
Region |
(A) | (F) | (F) |
Advanced Economies |
1.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| United States | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Euro Area | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| • Germany fiscal | 0.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| • France | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| • Italy | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| • Spain | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Japan | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| United Kingdom | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Canada | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
Source: IMF WEO April 2026
1.4 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs)
Emerging market and developing economies continued to account for the largest share of global economic growth during CY2025, supported by resilient domestic demand, infrastructure investments and manufacturing expansion. According to the IMF, EMDEs grew by 4.4% in CY2025, outperforming advanced economies despite continued geopolitical uncertainty, trade fragmentation and tighter global financial conditions. Growth is projected at 3.9% in
CY2026 before improving to 4.2% in CY2027, supported by stronger domestic consumption, public investment and favourable demographic trends across several emerging markets.
Emerging and Developing Asia remained the key growth driver, underpinned by robust domestic demand, continued infrastructure spending and expanding manufacturing capacity. Investments in digital infrastructure, renewable energy, industrial modernisation and advanced manufacturing continued to support long-term economic expansion, even as evolving global trade policies created headwinds for export-oriented sectors.
Chinas economy continued to transition towards a more consumption- and technology-driven growth model. While weaknesses in the property sector and subdued domestic confidence continued to moderate economic activity, policy support for advanced manufacturing, high-technology industries and infrastructure investment helped sustain growth and strengthen industrial competitiveness.
India remained the fastest-growing major economy, supported by strong domestic demand, sustained public capital expenditure, rapid infrastructure development and continued progress in manufacturing, digitalisation and energy transition. Government-led investments, expanding private sector participation and favourable demographics are expected to continue supporting robust medium-term growth.
Growth across other emerging regions remained mixed. Economic activity in Emerging Europe continued to be influenced by geopolitical developments, while
Latin America and the Caribbean faced relatively moderategrowthamid constraints and external uncertainties. The Middle East and Central Asia are expected to benefit from continued investments in energy and economic diversification, while Sub-
Saharan Africa is projected to witness a gradual recovery supported by infrastructure development, improving commodity demand and structural reforms, although debt sustainability and climate-related risks remain important challenges.
EMDE Growth Forecast (%)
| CY2025 | CY2026 | CY2027 | |
Region |
(A) | (F) | (F) |
| Emerging Market & Developing Economies | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.2 |
| Emerging & Developing | 5.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Asia | |||
| China | 5.0 | 4.4 | 4.0 |
| India | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Emerging & Developing | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Europe | |||
| Russia | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Latin America & the | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Caribbean | |||
| Middle East & Central Asia | 3.6 | 1.9 | 4.6 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
Source: IMF WEO April 2026
1.5 Prices
1.5.1 Input Prices
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices remained relatively moderate through most of CY2025 before rising sharply during the early months of CY2026 following severe supply disruptions arising from the conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude averaged around US$69/bbl in CY2025, compared with US$81/bbl in CY2024, as slower global economic growth, weaker oil demand growth, elevated trade uncertainty and higher production from non-OPEC+ producers kept prices under pressure for much of the year. However, geopolitical tensions triggered significant volatility during early CY2026, with Brent crude averaging around US$120/bbl in April 2026 and US$108/bbl in May 2026, before easing further to around US$85/bbl in June 2026 as shipping disruptions began to ease and immediate supply concerns moderated. Global oil markets remained broadly balanced through most of CY2025, as moderate demand growth was accompanied by continued expansion in supply. Higher production from non-OPEC+ producers, together with adequate global inventories, helped maintain comfortable supply conditions and kept prices under pressure for much of the year. The sharp increase in prices during the early months of CY2026 was therefore primarily supply-driven rather than demand-led, highlighting the continued sensitivity of global energy markets to geopolitical developments and disruptions to key shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz. According to the World Bank, Brent crude oil is projected to average around US$94/bbl in CY2026, reflecting the impact of supply disruptions arising from the conflict in the Middle East and the temporary disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The outlook assumes that supply conditions gradually improve during the second half of the year as shipping resumes and market conditions stabilise. Nevertheless, oil prices remain subject to significant uncertainty, with geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production decisions, global economic growth and the pace of recovery in international trade expected to remain the key determinants of future price movements.
Source: World Bank
Thermal Coal
Global thermal coal markets remained broadly balanced through much of CY2025, supported by resilient electricity demand across emerging economies, higher domestic coal production in major consuming countries and adequate global supply. While demand growth moderated in some regions amid expanding renewable energy capacity, coal continued to play an important role in ensuring energy security and meeting baseload power requirements, particularly across Asia.
Against this backdrop, thermal coal prices remained relatively stable during CY2025, with Australian coal prices exhibiting a gradual upward trend during the early months of CY2026. Australian coal prices averaged US$131/MT in April 2026, rising to US$137/MT in May 2026 and US$139/MT in June 2026, supported by firmer global energy markets and higher natural gas prices. In comparison, South African coal prices remained broadly stable at around US$95–96/MT over the same period, reflecting relatively balanced regional market conditions.
Global coal demand remained broadly resilient during
CY2025. While coal-fired power generation continued to face increasing competition from renewable energy across several advanced economies, demand remained robust across many emerging markets where coal continued to play a critical role in ensuring energy security and meeting rising electricity requirements. China remained the worlds largest consumer of thermal coal, although record domestic coal production and expanding renewable energy capacity moderated import demand. India continued to register healthy growth in electricity consumption, supported by industrial activity and expanding power demand, while increased domestic coal production helped reduce dependence on imported thermal coal. On the supply side, global coal markets remained adequately supplied through much of the year. Higher domestic production in China and India, coupled with stable exports from major producing countries, contributed to balanced market conditions and improved supply availability across global markets. Nevertheless, geopolitical developments and movements in natural gas prices continued to influence thermal coal markets during the early months of CY2026.
Looking ahead, thermal coal prices are expected to remain sensitive to developments in global energy markets, geopolitical events and the pace of the energy transition. While increasing renewable energy deployment is expected to moderate coal demand over the medium term, thermal coal is likely to remain an important component of the energy mix across several emerging economies, particularly in Asia, where rising electricity demand and energy security considerations continue to support consumption.
Coal Price Trends (US$/MT)
(Quarterly and Monthly Averages)
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices remained largely range-bound during the year under review, despite continued headwinds from subdued steel demand in China. Persistent weakness in Chinas property sector and softer construction activity continued to weigh on steel consumption, while policy support and infrastructure investment helped partly offset the decline. At the same time, steady export volumes from Australia and Brazil ensured adequate seaborne supply, keeping the market broadly balanced and limiting significant price volatility. The World Bank expects iron ore prices to remain under pressure over the medium term, with ample global supply and weak demand growth from China outweighing support from other regions. Reflecting these market dynamics, Australia 61.5% Fe iron ore prices remained relatively stable through FY 2025-26, averaging US$96/MT in Q1, US$100/MT in Q2, US$104/MT in Q3 and US$105/MT in Q4. Prices remained above the US$100/MT mark during the opening months of FY 2026-27 , averaging US$108/MT in April 2026 and US$110/MT in May 2026, before easing to US$103/MT in
June 2026, reflecting cautious market sentiment amid evolving steel demand and ample global supply. In contrast to international benchmarks, domestic iron ore prices remained relatively resilient through most of FY 2025-26. The Odisha Index (Fe 62%) increased from an average of 5,108/MT in Q1 FY26 to 5,368/MT in Q2, 5,518/MT in Q3 and 5,878/MT in Q4, supported by robust domestic steel production, sustained government infrastructure spending and healthy demand from the construction and manufacturing sectors. However, domestic prices moderated during the first quarter ofFY 2025-26,declining from 5,663/MT inApril2026 to 5,300/MTinMay 2026 and 4,970/MTin June2026, softer domestic market conditions.
Looking ahead, international iron ore prices are expected to remain influenced by developments in
Chinas steel sector, infrastructure investment across major economies and production trends in Australia, Brazil and Africa. While ample seaborne supply is likely to limit significant upside in international prices, the outlook for domestic iron ore prices remains relatively firm. Robust growth in Indias steel production, supported by sustained infrastructure development and industrial expansion, is expected to drive continued demand for iron ore. However, with domestic iron ore production not expected to increase commensurately with steel production, the resulting demand-supply dynamics are likely to keep domestic iron ore prices well supported over the medium term.
Iron Ore Price Trends
(Monthly Averages)
Source: Bigmint
Note: Both series rebased to Apr-25 = 100
Coking Coal
As the principal raw material used in blast furnace steelmaking, coking coal markets remained closely aligned with global steel production trends during FY 2025-26. While the prolonged weakness in Chinas property sector continued to weigh on steel demand, resilient steel production in India and other emerging economies, coupled with intermittent supply disruptions from key exporting regions, provided support to seaborne coking coal prices. At the same time, weather-related disruptions in Australia and evolving trade and logistics conditions contributed to periodic price volatility.
Australian Premium Hard Coking Coal (PHCC) prices remained steady at an average of US$199/t during both Q1 and Q2 FY26 before strengthening to US$215/t in Q3 and US$252/t in Q4. The upward trend continued into the first quarter of FY 2025-26, with prices averaging
US$255/t in April 2026, US$264/t in May 2026 and US$268/t in June 2026, reflecting firmer seaborne market conditions and sustained demand from key importing countries.
Global demand for coking coal remained mixed during the year. Chinas steel sector continued to face headwinds from subdued construction activity and weak real estate investment, resulting in cautious raw material procurement by steel producers. In contrast, India remained the fastest-growing major steel market, supported by infrastructure investment, capacity expansion and robust manufacturing activity. Given the limited availability of high-quality domestic metallurgical coal, imports continued to account for a significant share of Indias coking coal requirements, underpinning demand for premium seaborne supplies. On the supply side, Australia continued to dominate global exports of premium hard coking coal, although production and export volumes remained susceptible to adverse weather events and logistical disruptions. While mining operations generally remained stable during the year, periodic supply interruptions and evolving geopolitical developments continued to influence market sentiment and contribute to price volatility.
Looking ahead, coking coal prices are expected to remain influenced by global steel production, mining output from Australia and other major coking coal mining regions, especially Mongolia, and demand from key importing countries, particularly India and China. Although additional supply from major exporting regions is expected to support market stability, weather-related disruptions, freight costs and geopolitical developments are likely to remain key drivers of price movements. Over the medium term, Indias expanding steelmaking capacity is expected to sustain demand for imported premium coking coal despite ongoing efforts to diversify sourcing and strengthen raw material security.
Coking Coal (US$/t) - Australia PHCC
(Quarterly and Monthly Averages)
Source: Bigmint
1.5.2 Output Prices
Global Steel Prices
Global steel prices displayed divergent trends across major markets during FY 2025-26, reflecting contrasting regional demand conditions, trade policy developments and varying supply-demand balances. While Chinese steel prices remained subdued amid continued weakness in the property sector and elevated export volumes, prices in the United States strengthened steadily on the back of tighter trade protection measures and resilient domestic demand.
In contrast, Indian steel prices softened during the first half of the year before recovering towards the year-end, supported by improving domestic demand and policy interventions. European steel prices also witnessed a gradual recovery during the latter part of the year after remaining under pressure. The divergence was evident across both Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) and TMT products. In China, HRC prices remained largely below their opening levels throughout the year, while TMT prices exhibited only modest movements, reflecting subdued domestic steel consumption and continued pressure from the real estate sector. India experienced a different trajectory. Both HRC and fi TMTpricesdeclinedduringthe threequartersof
FY 2025-26 as lower-priced imports, particularly from East Asian countries, exerted pressure on domestic markets. However, improving domestic steel demand, driven by continued investments in infrastructure, construction and manufacturing, together with the 12% safeguard duty imposed on select flat steel imports from 21st April 2025, helped improve market sentiment and supported a recovery in prices during the quarter.
European steel markets remained comparatively subdued for much of FY 2025-26 amid weak industrial production and sluggish construction activity. However, selective inventory replenishment, trade defence measures and gradual improvement in downstream demand supported a recovery during the latter part of the financial year, with both HRC and TMT prices broadly returning to their opening levels by March 2026.
Looking ahead, global steel prices are expected to be impacted by developments in Chinas steel sector, infrastructure investment, trade policy measures and movements in raw material and energy prices. While sustained infrastructure spending and manufacturing growth across emerging economies are expected to support steel demand, geopolitical uncertainties, evolving tariff regimes and persistent global overcapacity are likely to keep regional price movements dynamic in the near term.
Global TMT Prices
Global TMT prices exhibited divergent trends, reflecting differences in construction activity, infrastructure spending, trade policies and regional supply-demand dynamics. While persistent weakness in Chinas property sector continued to weigh on long steel demand, infrastructure-led investments and trade policy interventions supported relatively stronger pricing across India and the United States. European markets, meanwhile, remained subdued amid weaker construction and industrial activity, although pricing improved gradually towards the end of the period. Chinas TMT market remained constrained by subdued residential construction, slower property investment and cautious steel consumption. Although policy measures aimed at supporting economic activity and infrastructure spending provided intermittent support, elevated steel production and exports continued to exert pressure on regional pricing by increasing competition in international markets.
In India, TMT prices came under pressure during the middle of CY2025, primarily owing to increased imports of lower-priced steel and cautious buying by market participants. However, healthy domestic demand from infrastructure, housing and industrial construction, together with continued government capital expenditure, supported a gradual recovery in prices during the latter part of the period. In addition, improving domestic demand conditions and disciplined market dynamics supported domestic market sentiment during the year, helping moderate the impact of low-priced imports.
The United States recorded the strongest performance among the major markets, with TMT prices supported by resilient construction activity, disciplined domestic supply and strengthened trade protection measures, including higher Section 232 tariffs on imported steel. In contrast, the European Union continued to face weaker demand from the construction and manufacturing sectors for much of the period. Nevertheless, selective inventory replenishment, trade defence measures and improving downstream demand contributed to a gradual firming of prices from January 2026. Overall, TMT price movements continued to reflect regional demand fundamentals rather than a uniform global trend. Markets supported by infrastructure investment, domestic construction activity and trade policy measures demonstrated greater resilience, while regions affected by weaker construction demand and excess export supply continued to experience pricing pressure.
Trends in Global TMT Prices
(Monthly Averages)
Global HRC Prices
Flat steel markets remained influenced by uneven industrial activity, evolving trade measures and regional supply-demand dynamics. HRC price movements varied significantly across major markets, with continued pressure in China due to subdued domestic steel consumption and higher export availability, while markets such as the United States and India witnessed comparatively stronger support from domestic demand drivers and trade interventions. European markets experienced weakness during the initial part of the period before gradually recovering as tighter domestic supply, trade protection measures and an improvement in steel demand supported prices.
China continued to be a key factor influencing global
HRC market conditions. Domestic steel demand recovery remained gradual, with slower activity across construction, manufacturing and other steel-consuming sectors limiting consumption growth. At the same time, sustained production availability encouraged higher export volumes from Chinese mills, increasing competition in international markets and weighing on global HRC prices. While policy measures aimed at supporting economic activity and infrastructure investment provided some relief, they were insufficient to fully offset broader supply-demand imbalances in the steel sector.
In India, HRC prices softened during the middle of 2025,
financial
impacted by increased availability of competitively priced imports and cautious buying behaviour among downstream consumers. However, domestic demand remained supported by infrastructure development, government capital expenditure, manufacturing activity and growth across engineering and automotive sectors. The implementation of the 12% safeguard duty on select flat steel imports in April 2025 helped moderate import pressures and improved market sentiment, contributing to a recovery in domestic HRC prices from January 2026.
The United States recorded stronger HRC pricing during the period, supported by resilient manufacturing activity, infrastructure demand, disciplined domestic supply conditions and enhanced trade protection measures. Higher import tariffs on steel products further strengthened domestic producers pricing environment by limiting competitive pressure from overseas markets. European HRC markets remained under pressure through much of 2025 amid weak industrial activity, cautious purchasing decisions and subdued downstream demand. However, market conditions improved from August 2025, supported by trade defence measures, selective inventory replenishment and gradual improvement in end-user demand.
Going forward, HRC prices are expected to remain influenced by global manufacturing activity, infrastructure investments, trade policy developments and movements in raw material and energy costs. While demand from automotive, engineering and capital goods sectors is expected to provide support, persistent global steel overcapacity, evolving trade measures and uncertainties surrounding major steel-producing economies are likely to continue shaping regional pricing trends.
Trends in Global HRC Prices
(Monthly Averages)
Source: Bigmint, Fastmarkets
Note: All the prices are in local currency rebased to 100 at the beginning ofthe year
1.6 Indian Economic Overview
Despite a challenging global environment, evolving trade policies, geopolitical tensions and heightened policy uncertainty, the Indian economy remained relatively well positioned during FY 2025-26. Strong domestic demand, sustained public investment, continued policy reforms and sound macroeconomic management helped cushion the impact of external headwinds, enabling India to remain among the fastest-growing major economies. Stable financial sector conditions, easing inflation and improving investment sentiment further reinforced the economys resilience during the year.
According to NSO estimates, Indias real GDP grew by 7.7% in FY 2025-26, compared with 7.1% in the previous year. Growth gained momentum during the second half of the fiscal, with real GDP expanding by 7.8% in the fourth quarter, reflecting broad-based improvements across manufacturing, services and investment activity. At current prices, nominal GDP reached
346.36 lakh crore, registering an annual growth of 8.9%, underscoring the continued expansion of economic activity despite a volatile global environment.
The economys growth was underpinned by resilient manufacturing, infrastructure and services. Continued private consumption, supported by improving rural emphasis on structural reforms, digitalisation, ease demand, healthy urban spending and stable labour of doing business and domestic manufacturing market conditions. Investment activity also remained strengthened Indias long-term growth prospects while robust, driven by sustained public capital expenditure enhancing its ability to navigate an evolving global and increasing private sector participation across economic landscape.
1.6.1 Growth Drivers of FY 2025-26
Indias economic expansion was supported by broad-based domestic demand, sustained investment and structural reforms.
Resilient Consumption
? Private FinalConsumptionExpenditure (PFCE)grew by 7.7%,supported byeasinginflation, improving rural demand, resilient urban consumption and healthy labour market conditions.
Strong Investment Cycle
? Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) expanded by 8.2%, reflecting sustained public capital expenditure and increasing private investments across manufacturing, infrastructure and logistics.
Broad-based Economic Expansion
? Manufacturing and services remained the principal contributors to growth, supported by improving domestic demand, capacity utilisation and business activity.
Infrastructure & Industrial Development
? Continued public investment under initiatives such as PM Gati Shakti, the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) and logistics modernisation strengthened economic capacity and enhanced connectivity.
Structural Reforms & Policy Support
? Continued implementation of Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, Make in India, digital public infrastructure and ease-of-doing-business reforms strengthened Indias long-term investment and manufacturing ecosystem.
1.6.2 High Frequency Indicators
High-frequency economic indicators continued to reflect the resilience of the Indian economy during
FY 2025-26, signalling sustained momentum across domestic demand, manufacturing activity and infrastructure development despite an uncertain global environment. Strong tax collections, expansionary business activity and healthy industrial production underscored the strength of Indias domestic growth drivers. These indicators highlight the economys ability to sustain investment-led growth, supported by continued public capital expenditure, resilient private consumption and improving business confidence.
GST Collections
Gross GST collections maintained a healthy growth trajectory during FY 2025-26, reflecting resilient domestic demand, improved tax compliance and continued formalisation of the economy. Collections remained robust throughout the year, with revenues crossing the 2 lakh crore mark in April 2025 and again in March 2026. For the full year, gross GST collections increased to over 22 lakh crore, representing an 8.3% year-on-year growth over FY 2024-25. This sustained improvement strengthened the
Governmentsfiscal position and provided continued support for public infrastructure investments and economic development.
Source: GST Portal
Gross GST Collections ( lakh crore)
Source: CBIC
Inflation Dynamics
Inflationary pressures remained broadly contained during FY 2025-26, supported by easing food price pressures, stable core inflation and improving supply-side conditions. Moderation in inflation, together with favourable agricultural output, improved availability of essential commodities and effective supply management measures, supported household purchasing power and provided a conducive environment for consumption and investment activity.
Retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), moderated significantly during the first half of
FY 2025-26, reaching a low of 1.6% in July 2025, before rising gradually during the subsequent months due to changes in food price dynamics. Inflationary pressures eased again in early 2026,withCPIinflation moderating to 2.7% in January 2026, 3.2% in February 2026 and 3.4% in March 2026 under the revised CPI series. Food inflation remained the key driver of monthly volatility during the year, while core inflation stayed relatively stable, reflecting contained input cost pressures and balanced domestic demand conditions. The moderation in price pressures supported real income growth and provided greater visibility for consumption-led economic activity.
The Reserve Bank of India continued to maintain a balanced monetary policy approach, focusing on price stability while supporting economic growth. The improved inflation outlook, along with stable financial conditions and easing cost pressures, created a favourable environment for consumption, private investment and credit expansion.
All India Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Inflation (%)
Source: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
*FromJanuary 2026onwards, CPIinflation isbasedonthe revised CPI series with base year 2024 = 100.
Manufacturing and Services Activity
Business activity remained resilient across both manufacturing and services during FY 2025-26, reflecting the strength of Indias domestic economy despite a challenging global backdrop. The India
Manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory throughout the year, averaging around 57, well above the neutral mark of 50. Healthy domestic demand sustained new order inflows and improving production levels continued to support manufacturing activity. Although export demand moderated during certain months amid evolving global trade conditions, manufacturers maintained positive business sentiment, supported by robust domestic markets, improving capacity utilisation and continued investment activity.
The services sector continued to be a key pillar of economic growth during the year. The India Services PMI averaged approximately 59 in FY 2025-26, indicating sustained expansion in business activity acrossfinancial services,transport, communication and other consumer-facing sectors. Strong domestic demand, healthy order pipelines and continued employment generation contributed to sustained business confidence, while easing inflation and improving macroeconomic stability further supported consumption-led growth.
Together, the sustained expansion in manufacturing and services underscores the resilience of Indias domestic growth drivers and highlights the broad-based nature of economic activity during FY 2025-26.
PMI Manufacturing
Infrastructure and Industrial Activity
Infrastructure and industrial activity remained resilient during FY 2025-26, supported by sustained public capital expenditure, strong domestic demand and continued investments across key sectors. The performance of the Eight Core Industries reflected continued momentum in infrastructure and manufacturing activity, with steel and cement emerging as the key contributors to growth during the year.
The Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI) recorded a growth of 2.7% during FY 2025-26, supported by strong expansion in steel production (9.5%) and cement production (8.7%). Electricity generation recorded modest growth of 1.0%, reflecting continued demand from industrial and commercial activities. Meanwhile, production in sectors such as coal, crude oil and natural gas remained relatively subdued due to sector-specific supply and demand dynamics.
Steel production registered one of the strongest performances among the core sectors, supported by sustained infrastructure development, healthy domestic steel consumption and continued activity across construction, manufacturing and capital-intensive industries. Cement production also maintained strong momentum, reflecting continued execution of infrastructure projects, housing activity and urban development initiatives.
Industrial logistics activity remained supportive during finished the year, with transportation networks continuing to facilitate movement of key commodities, including coal, iron ore, steel and other bulk materials. This reflected the continued expansion of infrastructure-linked economic activity and the increasing integration of domestic supply chains.
Going forward, infrastructure spending, manufacturing investments and growth in construction activity are expected to remain important drivers of industrial momentum. However, global uncertainties, commodity price movements and evolving external demand conditions will continue to influence the pace of industrial growth.
Source: Press Information Bureau (PIB)
Core Industry Growth in FY 2025-26
Overall Growth 2.7% Source: PIB
Infrastructure and Logistics
Indias infrastructure and logistics ecosystem continued to strengthen during FY 2025-26, supported by sustained public capital expenditure, expanding multimodal connectivity and ongoing investments in transport infrastructure. Continued implementation of programmes such as PM Gati Shakti, Dedicated Freight Corridors and port modernisation enhanced logistics efficiency and improved the movement of rawmaterialsand goods across the country.
The resulting improvement in connectivity supported industrial production, infrastructure execution and domestic trade, reinforcing the countrys long-term investment cycle.
Indian Railways registered another record year in freight transportation, carrying 1,670 million tonnes of cargo during FY 2025-26, representing a 3.3% increase over the previous year. Growth was led by higher movementoffertilisers,pigironandfinished steel,iron ore and cement, reflecting sustained demand from agriculture, manufacturing and infrastructure sectors. Freight earnings also increased to approximately
1.78 lakh crore, underscoring the continued importance of railways as the backbone of Indias bulk logistics network. Major ports also delivered a record performance during the year, handling 915 million tonnes of cargo, surpassing the Governments annual target of 904 million tonnes and recording a 7.1% year-on-year growth. The increase was driven by higher volumes of crude oil and petroleum products, container cargo and dry bulk commodities, reflecting resilient trade activity and continued improvements in port infrastructure, operational efficiency and cargo handling capacity.
Together, these indicators highlight the continued strengthening of Indias logistics ecosystem, providing greater supply chain efficiency, reducing transportation bottlenecks and suppor ting the countr ys manufacturing- and infrastructure-led growth agenda.
Indian Railways Freight Performance
Indicator |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 | Growth |
| Freight Loading (MT) | 1,670 | 1,617 | 3.25% |
| Freight Earnings ( crore) | 1,77,754 | 1,75,302 | 1.44% |
Source: Ministry of Railways
Commodity-wise Rail Freight Growth
Source: Indian Transport & Logistics
1.6.3 Outlook
Despite an increasingly uncertain global environment characterised by geopolitical tensions, evolving trade policies and volatile commodity markets, Indias growth outlook remains among the strongest across major economies. Strong domestic demand sustained public capital expenditure, healthy corporate and banking sector balance sheets, and continued emphasis on manufacturing and infrastructure development are expected to support economic activity in the coming year. Continued implementation of structural reforms, including PM Gati Shakti, the National Infrastructure Pipeline, Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and logistics improvements, is expected to further strengthen the countrys long-term growth potential.
Reflecting these strengths, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected real GDP growth of 6.6% for FY 2025-26. While the growth forecast has been revised marginally to account for external uncertainties, India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major economy for thefifth year in a row.The RBIhashighlighted global geopolitical developments, elevated energy prices, supply chain disruptions and weather-related risks as key factors that could influence the growth and inflation outlook. At the same time, resilient domestic consumption, rising investment activity and continued infrastructure spending are expected to provide stability to economic growth.
The RBI has alsoreviseditsCPIinflation forecast to 5.1% reflecting forFY2025-26, potential challenges arising from higher crude oil prices, supply chain disruptions and weather-related uncertainties. Nevertheless, prudent monetary policy, fiscal discipline and resilient macroeconomic fundamentals are expected to help maintain overall economic stability. Supported by sustained capital formation, expanding manufacturing capabilities and continued infrastructure development, India remains well positioned to navigate near-term global headwinds while sustaining long-term economic growth. These structural drivers are expected to continue supporting investment-led demand across infrastructure and industrial sectors, reinforcing the countrys long-term development trajectory.
India Growth Trend (%)
2.1 Global Steel Industry
The global steel industry continued to operate in a challenging environment during CY2025, shaped by uneven economic recovery, regional variations in steel demand, persistent global overcapacity and evolving trade dynamics. While investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, energy transition and strategic sectors provided support across several markets, supply-side pressures, elevated export availability from China and changing trade policies continued to influence global steel markets and producer profitability.
Global crude steel production stood at 1,849 million tonnes in CY2025, as compared to 1,885 million tonnes in CY2024, registering a decline of 1.9%. China remained the worlds largest crude steel producer with production of 960.8 million tonnes, although output declined by 4.4% during the year as china continued to adjust to lower domestic steel consumption and ongoing efforts to address excess capacity. Despite lower production, higher exports from China continued to influence international markets and contributed to pressures across regions.
India strengthened its position as the worlds second-largest crude steel producer, with production reaching 164.9 million tonnes in CY2025, registering a growth of over 10% compared with the previous year. Sustained infrastructure development, expanding manufacturing activity and resilient domestic steel consumption supported Indias steel sector, making it one of the fastest-growing major steel-producing economies globally. The United States emerged as the third-largest crude steel producer globally, surpassing Japan, while production declined across several mature steel-producing economies, including Japan, Russia, South Korea and Germany.
The global steel industry continued to witness significant shifts in trade flows during the year, with several economies strengthening trade defence mechanisms to support domestic producers amid concerns around excess capacity and imports from china. These measures, along with changing demand patterns across regions, contributed to evolving dynamics in international steel markets.
Over the medium term, steel demand is expected to be supported by structural growth drivers, including infrastructure development, renewable energy investments, transportation networks, industrial expansion, urbanisation and digital infrastructure. However, global overcapacity, geopolitical uncertainties and evolving trade policies are expected to remain key factors influencing market conditions.
Top 10 Crude Steel Producing Nations
Country |
CY2025 (MT) | CY2024 (MT) | % Change |
| China | 960.8 | 1,001.1 | (4.4) |
| India | 164.9 | 149.4 | 10.4 |
| USA | 82.0 | 79.5 | 3.1 |
| Japan | 80.7 | 84.0 | (4.0) |
| Russia | 67.8 | 71.0 | (4.5) |
| South Korea | 61.9 | 63.6 | (2.8) |
| Germany | 34.1 | 37.3 | (8.6) |
| Turkey | 38.1 | 36.9 | 3.3 |
| Brazil | 33.3 | 33.9 | (1.6) |
| Iran | 31.8 | 31.4 | 1.4 |
Source: WSA
Top 10 Steel Consuming Nations
SRO April 2026, Finished Steel Products
| million tonnes | y-o-y growth rates, % | |||||
Countries |
CY2025 | CY2026 (F) | CY2027 (F) | CY2025 | CY2026 (F) | CY2027 (F) |
| China | 796.0 | 784.1 | 784.1 | (7.1) | (1.5) | 0.0 |
| India | 159.8 | 171.6 | 187.4 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| United States | 90.9 | 92.4 | 94.3 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 48.0 | 47.9 | 48.7 | (3.4) | (0.1) | 1.7 |
| South Korea | 43.6 | 43.7 | 44.2 | (8.8) | 0.3 | 1.1 |
| T?rkiye | 39.3 | 41.2 | 41.2 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Russia | 37.6 | 37.2 | 37.6 | (14.0) | (1.0) | 1.0 |
| Germany | 29.2 | 30.7 | 32.5 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 6.0 |
| Vietnam | 28.8 | 29.4 | 29.9 | 12.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Brazil | 26.8 | 27.0 | 27.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 2.5 |
F - Forecast
Source: WSA SRO April 2026
Regional Finished Steel Demand Table 1. Steel Demand Forecasts
SRO April 2026, Finished Steel Products
| million tonnes | y-o-y growth rates, % | |||||
Regions |
CY2025 | CY2026 (F) | CY2027 (F) | CY2025 | CY2026 (F) | CY2027 (F) |
| European Union (27) & United Kingdom | 144.9 | 146.7 | 151.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Other Europe | 46.8 | 48.8 | 49.1 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 0.5 |
| Russia & other CIS + Ukraine | 53.6 | 53.5 | 54.5 | (9.5) | (0.1) | 1.7 |
| USMCA | 128.4 | 131.1 | 134.1 | (1.0) | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Central and South America | 50.5 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 7.8 | (1.3) | 2.0 |
| Africa | 45.0 | 46.7 | 48.8 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 4.6 |
| Middle East | 61.8 | 57.3 | 62.2 | 3.8 | (7.4) | 8.6 |
| Asia and Oceania | 1,187.2 | 1,190.1 | 1,211.4 | (3.5) | 0.2 | 1.8 |
World |
1,718.2 | 1,724.1 | 1,762.0 | (1.9) | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| World excl. China | 922.2 | 940.1 | 977.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 4.0 |
| Developed Economies | 348.8 | 352.5 | 360.5 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.3 |
| China | 796.0 | 784.1 | 784.1 | (7.1) | (1.5) | 0.0 |
| India | 159.8 | 171.6 | 187.4 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 9.2 |
| EMDE ex-China & India | 413.6 | 415.9 | 430.0 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 3.4 |
| ASEAN (5) | 86.5 | 87.7 | 89.8 | 10.2 | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| MENA | 80.2 | 76.6 | 82.4 | 5.2 | (4.5) | 7.7 |
F = Forecast
ASEAN (5): Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam Source: WSA SRO April 2026
2.1.1 Outlook
According to the WSAs April 2026 Short Range Outlook, global steel demand is expected to witness a gradual recovery, following a period of subdued growth.
Global finished steel demand is projected to increase to 1,724 million tonnes in CY2026, compared with 1,718 million tonnes in CY2025, representing a growth of 0.3%. Growth is expected to strengthen further in CY2027, with global demand forecast to reach 1,762 million tonnes, supported by improving economic activity and stronger demand across several regions.
China is expected to continue undergoing structural adjustment, with steel demand projected to decline by 1.5% in CY2026 as the economy transitions towards a more balanced growth model. While manufacturing activity, infrastructure investments and policy support are expected to provide some offset, changes in investment patterns and slower growth in traditional steel-consuming sectors are likely to weigh on near-term demand. Continued efforts towards production discipline and capacity optimisation could gradually support market balance.
India is expected to remain the fastest-growing major steel market,withfinishedsteeldemandprojected to increase by 7.4% in CY2026 and 9.2% in CY2027. Growth is expected to be supported by sustained government-led infrastructure expenditure, urbanisation, manufacturing expansion, automotive demand and investments in sectors such as renewable energy, railways, logistics and defence. Indias growing domestic steel consumption and capacity expansion are expected to remain key contributors to global steel demand growth. financial
Steel demand in developed markets is expected to recover gradually. Finished steel demand in the European Union and the United Kingdom is forecast to increase by 1.3% in CY2026, supported by improving industrial activity, infrastructure investments and higher spending in strategic sectors. In the USMCA region, steel demand is expected to grow by 2.1% in CY2026, supported by infrastructure investments, domestic manufacturing activity and policy measures aimed at strengthening local supply chains.
Despite improving demand prospects, global overcapacity remains a structural challenge for the steel industry. The continued addition of steelmaking capacity in certain regions, coupled with uneven demand recovery, is expected to sustain competitive pressures and encourage further trade interventions. The industrys ability to align capacity growth with demand, accelerate decarbonisation efforts and improve operational efficiency will remain critical for achieving sustainable long-term growth.
Investments in low-carbon steel technologies, renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, data centres and industrial decarbonisation are expected to create new avenues for steel consumption over the coming decade, reinforcing steels role as a critical enabler of global economic development.
2.2 Indian Steel Industry
Indias steel industry delivered another year of robust growth during FY 2025-26, reinforcing its position as the worlds second-largest steel producer and one of the fastest-growing steel markets globally. Supported by sustained investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, housing, railways, renewable energy and capital goods, domestic steel demand remained resilient despite a challenging global environment marked by subdued global demand, excess capacity in china and heightened trade uncertainties.
In FY 2025-26, crude steel production increased by
11.2% to a record 169.2 million tonnes, while finished steel production grew by over 10% to nearly 162 million tonnes.
Domestic finished steel consumption reached an all-time high of slightly over 164 million tonnes, registering
8.0% growth over the previous year, reflecting broad-based demand across user industries.
2.2.1 Indian Trade Scenario
Indias steel trade dynamics improved significantly during FY 2025-26, supported by a combination of stronger export performance, moderation in imports and timely policy intervention to protect the domestic industry. After remaining a net importer over the previoustwo years,India returned tobeing a net exporter of finished steel, reflecting improved competitiveness of domestic producers and a more balanced trade environment.
Finished steel exports increased by nearly 36% to 6.6 million tonnes, driven by higher shipments to Europe, the Middle East and neighbouring Asian markets. Improved global demand in select regions, together with competitive Indian steel prices and easing logistics constraints, supported export growth during the year. At the same time, finished steel imports declined sharply by nearly 32% to 6.5 million tonnes. The reduction was aided by improved domestic availability, and the Governments decision to impose a 12% safeguard duty on specified non-alloy and alloy flat steel products with effect from 21 April 2025. The measure was introduced to address the surge in low-priced imports that had affected domestic steel prices during the previous year. Despite the improvement in trade balance, global trade conditions remained challenging. Excess steelmaking capacity, particularly in China, continued to influence international trade flows, while increasing trade protection measures across major economies reshaped export opportunities. Indian producers therefore continued to focus on expanding value-added product exports, improving product quality and enhancing operational competitiveness to strengthen their presence in overseas markets.
Indian Steel Industry Performance
Particulars |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 | YoY (%) |
| Crude Steel Production | 169.2 | 152.2 | 11.2 |
| Hot Metal Production | 96.5 | 91.4 | 5.6 |
| Pig Iron Production | 8.4 | 8.3 | 0.5 |
| Sponge Iron | 60.3 | 55.8 | 8.1 |
| Production | |||
| Finished Steel | 161.7 | 146.7 | 10.3 |
| Production | |||
| Finished Steel | 164.2 | 152.1 | 8.0 |
| Consumption | |||
| Finished Steel Imports | 6.5 | 9.6 | (31.7) |
| Finished Steel Exports | 6.6 | 4.9 | 35.9 |
Source: Joint Plant Committee (JPC)
2.2.2 Outlook
India is expected to remain one of the key growth markets for global steel demand over the medium term, supported by robust economic growth, favourable demographics, rapid urbanisation and sustained investments in infrastructure and manufacturing. According to the World Steel Associations Short Range Outlook (April 2026), Indias apparent steel demand is projected to growby7.4%inCY2026,significantly outperforming global steel demand growth of 0.3%, reinforcing its position as the fastest-growing major steel market globally.
The Governments continued focus on infrastructure development through programmes such as the National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP), PM Gati Shakti, Bharatmala, Dedicated Freight Corridors, affordable housing initiatives, renewable energy expansion and railway modernisation is expected to sustain steel-intensive investments across key sectors. In parallel, manufacturing-led initiatives, including Make in India, Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes and rising investments in defence, engineering, capital goods and industrial infrastructure, are expected to support long-term domestic steel consumption.
Policy measures introduced to strengthen the domestic steel ecosystem are expected to provide additional support to the industry. Trade interventions, including the imposition of a 12% safeguard duty on select steel imports, are expected to help address concerns around competitively priced imports, support fair market conditions and provide greater stability to domestic producers.
India continues to possess significant structural growth potential, supported by rising steel intensity across infrastructure, construction, manufacturing and emerging sectors. Per capita steel consumption remains below global levels and developed economy benchmarks, providing substantial headroom for future demand growth as urbanisation, industrialisation and income levels expand. The National Steel Policy 2017 continues to provide a long-term framework for the sector, targeting 300 million tonnes of crude steel capacity, 255 million tonnes of steel production and 160 kg per capita steel consumption by 2030.
While global uncertainties, geopolitical developments, raw material price volatility and evolving trade policies remain key risks, Indias strong domestic demand fundamentals, expanding manufacturing ecosystem and supportive policy environment are expected to position the steel sector for sustained long-term growth.
3. COMPANY OVERVIEW
Jindal Steel Limited is one of Indias leading integrated steel manufacturers, with operations spanning mining, iron making, steelmaking, rolling and downstream processing. Our business is built on a strong foundation of backward and forward integration, supported by captive raw material resources, strategically located manufacturing facilities and an integrated logistics ecosystem.
This integrated model enables us to deliver high-quality, cost effective sustainable steel products across a diverse range of sectors including infrastructure, construction, railways, automotive, engineering, energy and defence. With a continued focus on innovation, operational excellence and value-added product development, we remain committed to strengthening ourcompetitivepositionwhilecontributingmeaningfully to Indias industrial growth and nation-building agenda, including the "Make in India" vision.
Our manufacturing footprint is strategically located across Raigarh and Raipur (Chhattisgarh), Angul and Barbil (Odisha), and Patratu (Jharkhand). Over the years, we have developed a deeply integrated value chain that enhances operational resilience, improves cost competitiveness and supports scalable growth.
3.1 Capacity Expansion and Integrated Platform Strength
FY 2025-26 represented a defining phase in Jindal
Steels growth journey, marked by the successful commissioning of critical assets under its integrated expansion programme. Our expansion has been complemented by corresponding investments across the value chain, strengthening our capabilities in raw material security, iron making, steel melting, downstream processing and supporting infrastructure. This integrated approach enables greater operational flexibility, improves resource efficiency and supports sustainable long-term growth.
3.1.1 Raw Material Capacities
Securing long-term access to critical raw materials remains a strategic priority for us. Our integrated mining portfolio provides greater supply visibility and strengthens our ability to manage market volatility while supporting our expanding steelmaking operations.
As on 31 March 2026, our raw material capacities comprised:
3.1.2 Iron and Steel Making Capacities
Our diversified iron-making configuration provides operational flexibility and enables optimisation of production processes and resource utilisation. The commissioning of the new blast furnace and BOF units during the year has significantly enhanced our steelmaking capabilities and strengthened our ability to meet growing demand across domestic and international markets.
3.2 Raw Material Security and Mine Integration
Strengthening raw material security remains a core pillar of our long-term strategy, enabling cost-efficient and uninterrupted operations across the value chain.
3.2.1 Iron Ore Operations
Our captive iron ore operations at Kasia, Tensa and Roida-I continued to provide critical support to our integrated steel operations during FY 2025-26.
Particulars (MT) |
Kasia | Tensa | Roida-I |
| Reserves | 257 | 9 | 125 |
| Capacity (EC) | 7.5 | 3.11 | 3.0 |
| Production | 4.78 | 0.38 | 0.72 |
During the year, we further strengthened our long-term iron ore security by being declared the preferred bidder for the Thakurani-A1 iron ore block in Odisha. This addition will support our future growth plans and enhance raw material availability.
We also progressed the Barbil–Angul slurry pipeline project, which is nearing completion. Once operational, the pipeline will improve logistics reduce transportation dependency and contribute towards lower operating costs and emissions.
3.2.2 Thermal Coal Operations – India
Our captive thermal coal assets continue to support energy security for our integrated operations and reduce exposure to external fuel market fluctuations.
Particulars (MT) |
GP IV/6 | Utkal C | Utkal B1 | Utkal B2 |
| Mineable Reserves | 80.56 | 112.56 | 148.63 | 70.17 |
| Capacity (EC) | 4.0 | 3.37 | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| Production | 4.0 | 3.37 | Refer note | Refer note |
Note:
Utkal B1 commenced operations with dispatches starting from April 2026, while extraction from Utkal B2 is yet to commence.
In March 2025, the Company was declared the preferred bidder for the Saradhapur Jalatap East coal block, an unexplored asset with estimated geological resources of 3.25 billion tonnes. The Company is currently progressing with the requisite regulatory approvals and development activities.
The addition of this resource will further strengthen our energy security, enhance raw material self-sufficiency, and support the long-term competitiveness of our steel operations.
3.2.3 Overseas Coal Assets
Our overseas coal portfolio comprises assets in Australia, Mozambique and South Africa.
In Australia, the mine was previously under care and maintenance. During FY 2025-26, we undertook a comprehensive reassessment of the asset and, given that the mining shaft has been sealed, we recognised a non-cash impairment of 1,433 crore (standalone) and 834 crore (consolidated). The residual value of the asset is approximately US$31 million. This represents a prudent reassessment of recoverable value in line with current operational realities.
Operations in Mozambique and South Africa remained stable during the year, with no material changes in operational structure.
3.3 Integrated Value Chain and Logistics Strengthening
Our integrated operating model is supported by strategic infrastructure investments that enhance efficiency, reduce logistics dependency and strengthen supply chain resilience. During FY 2025-26, we achieved key milestones across our infrastructure ecosystem:
? Operationalised both modules of the Shree Bhoomi Power Plant (2 ? 525 MW), strengthening captive power availability.
? Commissioned the coal pipe conveyor system connecting Utkal mines with the Angul steel plant, improving material movement efficiency and reducing reliance on road transportation.
? Progressed the Barbil–Angul slurry pipeline, which is nearing completion.
? Continued development of the Paradip Port berth, with commissioning and ramp-up planned in a phased manner from FY 2026-27 onwards. These initiatives will further enhance operational integration, improve cost efficiency and support sustainable growth.
3.4 Value-added Products and Market
Diversification
We continue to focus on strengthening our product portfolio through a higher share of value-added and specialised steel products. During FY 2025-26, value-added products accounted for 68% of total sales, reflecting our strategic focus on improving product mix and enhancing realisations.
Our strategy remains anchored around serving the strong and growing domestic steel demand. Leveraging our integrated manufacturing capabilities, extensive product portfolio and proximity to key consumption centres, we continue to strengthen our presence across infrastructure, construction, manufacturing and industrial segments.
At the same time, we continue to service selective export opportunities. This approach allows us to remain aligned with domestic demand growth while leveraging favourable opportunities in international markets.
68%
Share of sales from value-added products
3.5 Capital Expenditure and Capacity Creation
FY 2025-26 marked a significant phase in our capital deployment programme, with continued investments across our integrated expansion projects.
As of March 31, 2026, we have incurred cumulative capital expenditure of 35,498 crore out of the total planned investment of 47,043 crore. The remaining capital expenditure is expected to support the completion, integration and ramp-up of ongoing expansion projects.
K35,498 crore
Cumulative capital expenditure
The commissioning of key assets during FY 2025-26 marked a significant milestone in strengthening our integrated steelmaking platform. During the year, we commissioned the 4.6 MTPA Blast Furnace – Bhagavati Subhadrika, 3.0 MTPA BOF-2 and 3.0 MTPA BOF-3, contributing to an increase in our crude steel capacity to 15.6 MTPA. We also operationalised both modules of the Shree Bhoomi Power Plant (2 ? 525 MW), commissioned the 1.2 MTPA Cold Rolling Mill complex and completed the pipe conveyor system connecting Utkal mines with the Angul steel plant.
These investments have strengthened our integrated value chain by enhancing raw material movement, steelmaking flexibility, downstream capabilities and energy security. Together, these assets are expected to improve operational efficiency, optimise logistics costs and enhance our long-term competitiveness across the steel value chain.
3.6 Business Performance
During FY 2025-26, we further strengthened our integrated operations with the ramp-up of newly commissioned capacities, taking our crude steel capacity to 15.6 MTPA. The year marked a transformation phase, characterised by stabilisation of new assets, optimisation of product mix and progressive enhancement of operational capabilities. Performance during the year was supported by improved internal integration, a higher share of value-added products and the commissioning of key upstream, steelmaking and downstream facilities.
On a consolidated basis, production increased to 9.25 MT compared with 8.12 MT in the previous year, supported by improved operational performance across businesses. Consolidated sales grew to 8.68 MT from 7.97 MT in FY 2024-25. EBITDA stood at 9,660 crore, while consolidated Profit After Tax increased to 3,361 crore compared with 2,846 crore in the previous year.
Our sales strategy continued to remain focused on serving domestic demand, with 93% of total sales volume in the domestic market during FY 2025-26. We continued to leverage selective export opportunities, with exports contributing 7% of total sales volume, providing additional market flexibility and supporting geographical diversification
93%
Domestic sales volume share
7%
Export sales volume share
3.7 AI and Digital Transformation
Digital transformation and Artificial Intelligence (AI) are emerging as key enablers of Jindal Steels journey towards operational excellence, customer-centricity and sustainable value creation. During the year, the Company accelerated its digital agenda by embedding advanced analytics, AI-driven decision support, automation and real-time data visibility across manufacturing, supply chain, commercial and corporate functions. These initiatives are strengthening decision-making, improving responsiveness and enhancing productivity across the value chain.
The Company is progressively building an integrated digital enterprise by leveraging data from its manufacturing, logistics, marketing and finance functions through centralised dashboards and advanced analytics. AI-enabled insights are being deployed to improve production planning, demand forecasting, inventory optimisation, logistics planning, quality management and working capital management. The use of predictive analytics is enabling early identification of operational bottlenecks, improving equipment reliability, enhancing process stability and supporting higher throughput with optimised resource utilisation. On the commercial front, digital platforms are enhancing customer engagement, order visibility, delivery performance and service responsiveness, while data-driven pricing and market intelligence are supporting faster and better-informed business decisions. Across the organisation, intelligent automation is reducing manual interventions, improving process governance and enabling employees to focus on higher-value activities.
Cybersecurity, data governance and information security remain integral to the Companys digital strategy. Jindal Steel continues to strengthen its digital infrastructure through robust access controls, application security, perimeter security, network security, backup and disaster recovery frameworks, while continuously enhancing employee awareness on cyber resilience.
Looking ahead, the Company intends to deepen the adoption of AI across its operations by expanding predictive maintenance, intelligent process control, digital twins, computer vision, generative AI and autonomous decision-support systems. Jindal Steel is also developing JARVIS (Jindal AI for Real-time Visibility, Intelligence & Systems), its enterprise AI platform, and deploying agentic AI solutions to empower employees with intelligent digital assistants capable of automating routine tasks, accelerating decision-making, enabling natural language access to enterprise knowledge and data, and significantly enhancing productivity across manufacturing, commercial and corporate functions. These capabilities are expected to further improve operational efficiency, asset productivity, cost competitiveness, quality consistency, safety and sustainability. As digital technologies become increasingly central to industrial competitiveness, Jindal Steel remains committed to building a data-driven, AI-enabled enterprise that delivers superior value for customers, shareholders and all stakeholders.
3.8 Global Operations
Mozambique
Our Mozambique operations continued to strengthen their contribution to our integrated raw material portfolio during FY 2025-26. The operations delivered improved performance during the year, supported by higher production levels, better operational efficiency and focused cost management. The business remained aligned with our long-term objective of strengthening raw material security.
Metric |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 |
| Coking Coal Production (kt) | 867 | 761 |
| Coking Coal Sales (kt) | 734 | 767 |
| Thermal Coal Production (kt) | 672 | 617 |
| Thermal Coal Sales (kt) | 662 | 583 |
| EBITDA (US$ million) | 6.7 | 0.9 |
| PAT (US$ million) | 11.0 | (6.8) |
South Africa
Our South Africa operations faced challenges due to subdued market conditions, operational constraints and a high cost environment. We remain focused on evaluating operational improvements and cost optimisation measures to enhance the long-term sustainability of the asset.
Metric |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 |
| Anthracite Coal | 70 | 219 |
| Production (kt) | ||
| EBITDA (US$ million) | (4.8) | (0.5) |
| PAT (US$ million) | (2.4) | (0.8) |
Australia
During FY 2025-26, we undertook a comprehensive reassessment of our Australian coking coal asset. The mine remained non-operational and under care and maintenance during the year. Accordingly, the
Company recognised an impairment charge, reflecting the reassessment of the recoverable value of the asset in line with current operational realities.
3.9 Business Outlook
We successfully expanded our crude steel capacity to 15.6 MTPA during FY 2025-26, marking a key milestone in our long-term growth journey. Going ahead, the focus will shift towards stabilisation, utilisation improvement and margin enhancement across the integrated value chain.
Key priorities for the year include:
? Improving utilisation of newly commissioned steelmaking and downstream assets
? Increasing share of value-added and specialty steel products
3.10 Key Financial Ratios (Standalone)
Particulars |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 | % Variance | Reason for Variance |
| Debtors Turnover Ratio (days) | 39.8 | 28.0 | 42.1% | Due to increase in sales and decrease in average trade receivables during the year ended 31st March 2026. |
| Inventory Turnover Ratio (days) | 7.3 | 6.4 | 14.1% | Due to increase in cost of material consumed and decrease in average inventory. |
| Interest Coverage Ratio (x) | 11.2 | 14.3 | (21.7%) | Due to decrease in EBITDA and increase in net finance charges during the year ended 31st March 2026. |
| Current Ratio (x) | 1.1 | 1.0 | 10.0% | Due to increase in current assets and decrease in current liabilities as at 31st March 2026. |
| Debt Equity Ratio (x) | 0.1 | 0.1 | - | "NA" |
| Net Debt/EBITDA (x) | 0.5 | 0.3 | 66.7% | Due to increase in net debt and decrease in EBITDA during the year ended 31st March 2026. |
| Operating Margin (%) | 15.7 | 18.2 | (13.7%) | Due to decrease in EBITDA and increase in sales turnover during the year ended 31st March 2026. |
? Strengthening raw material security through captive mines and long-term mineral resource development
? Completing logistics integration projects including slurry pipeline and port connectivity Demand outlook remains supported by continued infrastructure development, construction activity and industrial expansion in India. Our integrated model positions us well to capture these opportunities while maintaining cost competitiveness and operational resilience.
4. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
4.1 Standalone
Particulars |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 | Change |
| Revenue from | 54,023 | 48,818 | 5,205 |
| Operations | |||
| EBITDA | 8,468 | 8,939 | (471) |
| Depreciation | 2,383 | 2,272 | 111 |
| Finance Cost | 773 | 620 | 153 |
| PBT | 4,140 | 4,847 | (707) |
| PAT | 3,074 | 3,621 | (547) |
4.2 Consolidated
Particulars |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 | YoY |
| Revenue from | 53,225 | 49,765 | 3,460 |
| Operations | |||
| EBITDA | 9,660 | 9,494 | 166 |
| Depreciation | 3,171 | 2,768 | 403 |
| Finance Cost | 1,517 | 1,312 | 205 |
| PBT | 4,413 | 4,344 | 69 |
| PAT | 3,361 | 2,846 | 515 |
Particulars |
FY 2025-26 | FY 2024-25 | % Variance | Reason for Variance |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 5.7 | 7.4 | (23.0%) | Due to decrease in Profit After Tax (PAT) and increase in sales turnover during the year ended 31st March 2026. |
| RoNW (%) | 5.8 | 7.3 | (20.5%) | Due to decrease in PAT and increase in capital employed during the year ended 31st March 2026. |
5. HUMAN RESOURCES
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6. CSR
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7. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
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8. TECHNOLOGY
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9. AWARDS
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10. RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY
As a Company with global operations spread across multiple geographies, we proactively identify and assess risks that may potentially affect our business. Our risk management policy, supported by a robust governance framework, enables us to evaluate, report and address risks to ensure smooth business operations. The Risk Management Committee supports the Board by regularly reviewing risk exposure, evaluating existing controls and recommending corrective actions. Risk management is deeply integrated into our decision-making and day-to-day operations. It plays a key role in ensuring business continuity and helping us achieve our long-term goals. Each department head is responsible for identifying and assessing risks within their respective functions, which are regularly reviewed by senior management and the Board. The Board holds the ultimate responsibility for risk oversight and ensures compliance with all relevant laws and regulations, fostering a culture of accountability and preparedness across the organisation.
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11. INTERNAL CONTROLS
The Company has a well-structured internal control system designed to match the nature and scale of its operations. The Audit Committee plays a key role in overseeing financial risks and internal controls, while both the Board of Directors and the Audit Committee regularly review the adequacy and effectiveness of these systems.
To strengthen financial oversight, the Audit Committee conducts regular meetings with the statutory auditors and the management team. These controls help ensure efficient use of resources and full compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
12. INTERNAL AUDIT
The internal audit function enables the Company to maintain strong governance through regular checks and reviews. The team monitors internal processes closely and recommends improvements wherever deviations from established practices are identified.
With strong oversight and structured review mechanisms, the Company maintains high standards of compliance with internal policies and regulatory requirements. The audit team, equipped with the required skills and experience, reports directly to the Chairman of the Audit Committee and the Managing Director.
Each year, with the approval of the Audit Committee, the team prepares a Risk-Based Audit Plan (RBAP) to assess the effectiveness of internal controls. Audits are conducted as per the approved plan, and any gaps identified are communicated to process owners and management for timely corrective action. Key findings are also placed before the Audit Committee for detailed review.
13. CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
This report contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations and projections. However, actual results may differ from those expressed or implied due to various influencing factors. These include changes in economic conditions, fluctuations in demand and supply, pricing trends in domestic and global markets, shifts in government regulations, tax policies and other relevant developments.
The Company is not obligated to update or revise these statements based on future events or new information. As a result, actual performance may vary from what is anticipated in this report.
IIFL Customer Care Number
(Gold/NCD/NBFC/Insurance/NPS)
1860-267-3000 / 7039-050-000
IIFL Capital Services Support WhatsApp Number
+91 9892691696
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