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Kalyani Steels Ltd Management Discussions

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Mar 6, 2025|03:31:06 PM

Kalyani Steels Ltd Share Price Management Discussions

1.0

1.0 Economic Overview 1.1 Global Economy

Lost growth momentum on account of confiict, trade tensions & inlation

Economic activities regained the strong momentum towards the end of 2021 when global GDP recovered back to pre-pandemic levels as most of the major economies removed the stringent lockdown measures on account of COVID 19 except China. However, the momentum was short lived since global economy experienced several negative shocks in 2022, causing global GDP growth to slow to estimated 3.4% in 2022 from 6.2% in 2021.

These negative shocks include geopolitical confiict between Russia & Ukraine started in February 2022, trade tension between US & China, rising infiation levels across major economies, particularly, developed economies, slowdown in China economic activities due to disruptions from waves of COVID 19 infection, sanctions & reverse sanctions etc. Such consequential negative shocks pose a challenge to international relations and o" en lead to policy driven reversal of globalization by protecting the domestic interests.

The ill-e# ects of war in Ukraine did not just limit to lives and livelihoods, but it also had several appalling impacts leading to a severe energy crisis in Europe as gas supply was cut by Russia in retaliation of Western countries economic sanction and supply chain disruptions. More importantly, the confiict also pushed up the infiation levels globally, impacting developing countries. Further, infiation in developed counties remained quite persistent throughout the year. The rising global infiationary pressures led to rapid tightening of monetary policies across the Advanced, Emerging & developing economies.

Source : World Economic Outllook - April 2023, International Monetary Fund

Due to high level of supply chain disruptions, trade tensions and to reduce dependency on single source, major multinational corporations interests are rising in reshoring & friend-shoring with support of the local government. For example, in Europe, the French government has been urging the EU to accelerate production targets, weaken state aid rules and develop a "Made in Europe" strategy to counter domestic production subsidies provided by the US Infiation Reduction Act. Such protective measures are slowing the global demand and growth projections leading to the era of Slowbalization.

ADVANCED ECONOMIES

A" er strong growth of 6% in 2021, GDP growth in the U.S. slowed to 2.1% in 2022. Russia-Ukraine war had limited impact on GDP growth & economic activities as US is the net exporter of energy, the energy prices did not shoot up as high as Europe. However, strong consumer demand was the main driver of infiationary pressure in the U.S.

EU experienced the severe heat of Russia-Ukraine war a" er Russia (the EUs largest energy supplier in 2021) restricted energy supplies to Europe in retaliation for economic sanctions. Natural gas imports from Russia fell to around 25% of the average between 2016 to 2020 by the end of July 2022 and to approximately 15% by the end of 2022. As a result, natural gas prices in Europe spiked sharply leading to record high electricity and infiation. These factors led EU GDP growth to slow down to 3.5% in 2022 from 5.3% in 2021.

EMERGING MARKETS & DEVELOPING ECONOMIES

The China economic activities deteriorated sharply in 2022 owing to stricter lockdown measures especially in second and fourth quarters of CY 2022 because of its Zero COVID policy. This led to lower consumption, & production. Further, lockdown aggravated the downturn in real estate sector which contributes around 25% to GDP of China. As a result, GDP growth slowed to 3% in 2022 from 8.4% in 2021.

Indian economy has shown relatively resilient performance in 2022 over 2021 with an estimated growth rate of 6.8% in 2022 over 8.7% in 2021.

Following its invasion on Ukraine, western countries imposed heavy sanctions on Russia which severely damaged parts of Russias key industrial activities like Automobile which relies on imported parts. Though, many western * rms stopped selling their goods & services to Russia, companies in other parts of the world stepped up to * ll the gap helping Russia recover a" er the sharp drop in the months following the invasion. This led to an estimated contraction of 2.1% in 2022 as against a growth of 4.7% in 2021.

Outlook : A fragile recovery is underway

Global GDP growth is forecasted to come down further to 2.8% in 2023 from 3.4% in 2022. Most of the weakness in growth would be attributed to slower growth in major advanced economies like US & EU area at 1.6% and 0.8% respectively whereas emerging & developing economies in Asia would drive growth.

Some of the key economic indicators recent data suggests a fragile recovery. Global output PMI index for both Manufacturing & Services sector has risen above 50 in recent past months indicating reversal of economic activities.

Following Russias war against Ukraine, energy prices had sharply risen in particularly EU area. However, starting of 2023, energy prices have come down, but they are still at a higher level. More than the prices, su+ cient availability of natural gas in EU is a prime concern which a# ects the viability of key business segments.

Globally, infiation has proven more persistent and rise in core infiation suggest that infiation may remain above pre-pandemic averages and central bank targets in many countries for an extended period. Headline Infiation is expected to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 7.0% in 2023 which is still above pre-pandemic average of 2.3%.

Infiation remaining above target could likely force central banks to raise interest rates more quickly than currently expected.

Tight monetary policy in US could result in a stronger USD and related spill overs considering its role as the primary currency for trade and * nance. A strong dollar can drive up prices in local currencies and cause infiation to persist.

Geopolitical tensions are at a high level. If Russia-Ukraine war is further intensi* ed or confiict arises elsewhere, it could have signi* cant economic repercussions through commodity markets, trade, uncertainty, con* dence and * financial stress in a# ected countries. Further, geopolitical tension could force some policy makers to take further steps to delink from global * financial & trade networks which could raise policy uncertainty.

Many countries are seeking to re-orient supply chains such that key inputs are produced either domestically or with a narrow set of friendly partners.

The world is experiencing frequent costly, record-breaking weather events due to climate change. In the near term, such climate-related disasters can infiict substantial human costs, damage infrastructure and disrupt activity. Disasters can also worsen government * scal positions through lower tax receipts and lower productivity alongside increased spending on reconstruction and public services.

1.2 Indian Economy

Resilient performance : A shining economy amid decelerating global demand

Global economy has experienced multiple negative shocks within last 3-4 years. It started with pandemic induced contraction followed by Russia-Ukraine war leading to surge in key commodity prices and hence infiation. Infiationary pressures triggered central banks across the world to tighten the monetary policies.

Indian economy, however, has shown a resilient performance ahead of many countries amid these global shocks. Indian economy is estimated to have grown by 6.8% in FY 2022 as against a growth of 8.2% in FY 2021 and emerged as one of the fastest growing major economies in the world. Yet, Indian economy faced numerous challenges in FY 2023 in terms of rising infiations, rise in commodity prices, depreciating rupee, widening of CAD etc.

Gross value added (GVA) at basic prices is estimated to increase by 6.7% in FY 2023 over FY 2022 as against 8.1% in FY 2022 over FY 2021. Indias economic growth in FY 2023 has been principally led by private consumption and capital formation. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a measure of investment in * xed capital, increased by 11.5%, Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) which has the highest contribution to GDP has increased by 7.7%.

Robust growth in exports, but trade balance widened

Indias export numbers have been continuously increasing. In FY 2022-23, India reached a signi* cant milestone with total exports (goods & service combined) estimated to be USD 770 Billion for the * first time in the history.

Indias merchandise exports in FY 2022-23 stood at USD 447 Billion exhibiting a growth of 6% over FY 2021-22 while services exports in FY 2022-23 stood at USD 322 Billion as against USD 254 Billion in FY 2021-22 registering a growth of record 26.8%. Total exports (merchandise & exports) grew by 13.8% in FY 2022-23 at USD 770 Billion as against USD 676 Billion in FY 2021-22.

Source : National Statistics O+ ce, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Press release dated January 6, 2023, RBIs survey of professional forecasters dated April 6, 2023.

At the same time, merchandise imports increased by 16.5% in FY 2022-23 at USD 714 Billion whereas services imports increased by 21% in FY 2022-23 at USD 178 Billion. Total imports in FY 2022-23 stood at USD 892 Billion as against USD 760 Billion in FY 2021-22 registering a growth of 17.4%.

Even a" er signi* cant growth in exports, primarily led by service sector, Indias trade balance widened to USD 122 Billion in FY 2022-23 as against USD 83 Billion in FY 2021-22.

Output of Eight Core Industries has grown by 8%

The Index of eight Core Industries (ICI) measures combined & individual performance of eight core industries viz. Coal, Crude Oil, Natural gas, Petroleum & re* nery products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement and Electricity.

For the period, Apr-Feb 2023, core sectors like Coal, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity have shown resilient performance as against a moderate growth in Re* nery products, very low growth in Natural Gas and a negative growth in Crude oil as compared with same period last year i.e., Apr-Feb 2022.

Overall, the output of 8 core industries have grown by 8% (provisional) for the period Apr-Feb 2023 as against an 11% growth in Apr-Feb 2022.

Y-o-Y Growth Rates

Core

2021-22 Apr-Feb Apr-Feb

Sectors

2021-22 2022-23
(P) (P)

Coal

8.5 9.8 15.2

Crude Oil

-2.6 -2.6 -1.6

Natural Gas

19.2 20.5 1.5

Re* nery

8.9 9.2 5.2

Products

Fertilizers

0.7 -0.4 11.5

Steel

16.9 18.4 7.5

Cement

20.8 22.3 9.7

Electricity

8.0 8.2 9.9

Total

10.4 11.1 7.8

Source : Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade

Higher infiation levels in FY 2022-23

Indian economy faced very high infiationary pressures throughout the year leading RBI to tighten the monetary policy by increasing the repo rates.

In FY 2022-23, infiation was mainly driven by higher food infiation ranging between 4.8% to 8.8% while the core infiation rate remained at a relatively steady level between 5.8% to 7.1%. Headline infiation remained in a range between 5.7% to 7.8% throughout the year.

In the * first half of FY 2022-23, infiation levels remained at a high level due to Russia-Ukraine crisis which were then subdued in the second half of the year.

Outlook : India to emerge as one of the fastest growing major economies in the world

Globally, there is an increased trend among nations and MNCs to secure their supply chains considering geopolitical complications. India, on the other hand, presents huge potential and opportunities to emerge as an export hub and investment destination in the manufacturing and services space.

The Indian economy has remained resilient amidst high tides of uncertainty. The performance indicates that the recovery from the pandemic was stronger led primarily by private consumption and strong rebound in government consumption. Similar resilient performance is also expected to in near future too.

IMF has projected a real GDP growth of 5.9% in FY 2023-24 and 6.3% in FY 2024-25. Among the forecast India has the highest rate of GDP growth for FY 2023-24. Various agencies have forecasted GDP growth of India between the range of 5.5% to 6.4% for FY 2023-24.

Although infiation levels have subdued in second half of FY 2023, it is not yet at a comfortable level for the central bank. Ongoing Russia-Ukraine war would keep the infiation level at relatively higher level in near future. IMF has projected the infiation level to remain at 4.9% and 4.4% in FY 2023-24 & FY 2024-25 respectively. Higher infiationary levels may force RBI to further tighten the monetary policy which might a# ect the private investments due to increased borrowing costs.

To summarize, India economy is well posed to absorb global exigencies and negative shocks better than major global economies in the world. The private consumption has rebounded, higher capital expenditure would give a requisite boost, government infrastructure spending would add signi* cant value for the economy to grow faster than its peers.

Steel Industry Overview 2.1 Global Steel Industry

Contraction in steel demand a" er recovery momentum post pandemic shock

Global steel industry had gained a good recovery momentum in CY 2021 a" er the pandemic shock. However, growth in CY 2022 was hampered by certain negative shocks in the form of higher infiation, increasing interest rates, the Russian-Ukraine war, and Chinas Zero COVID 19 policy leading to repeated lockdowns, rising commodity prices, supply side bottlenecks etc. The destruction of steel production facilities in Ukraine, soaring energy prices in Europe led to widespread plant idling and production stoppages, especially in Europe. Such negative shocks resulted in lower demand of steel products and led to contraction in steel demand.

In CY 2022, total crude steel production stood at 1,885 Million tons as against 1,962 Million tons in CY 2021 representing a contraction of 3.9%.

China, the worlds largest steel producer, recorded contraction for consecutive two years in its crude steel production. Chinas steel production recorded a contraction of 1.7% in CY 2022 a" er a contraction of 2.8% in CY 2021. Deceleration in Chinese economy primarily led by unexpected lockdowns extended across di# erent parts of the country on account of surge in COVID 19 infections. Further, Chinas construction sectors negative momentum started in 2021 continued & intensi* ed in 2022 adding to lower demand. A slight pick up in the real estate sector is likely in 2023 with the help of government support.

Steel demand in the developed economies su# ered a signi$ cant contraction in 2022 due to monetary tightening and high energy prices.

European Union & UK witnessed a sharp decline of 7.9% in its crude steel production of 151.8 Million tons in 2022. Industrial activities su# ered signi* cantly due to high energy costs which led to contraction in steel demand.

Top 10 Steel producing countries.

(Million tons)

Country

CY CY % Growth
2021 2022

World

1,962.3 1,885.0 -3.9%

China

1,035.2 1,018.0 -1.7%

India

118.2 125.1 5.8%

Japan

96.3 89.2 -7.4%

United

85.8 80.5 -6.1%

States

Russia

77.0 71.5 -7.2%

South

70.4 65.9 -6.5%

Korea

Germany

40.2 36.8 -8.4%

Turkey

40.4 35.1 -12.9%

Brazil

36.1 34.0 -5.8%

Iran

28.3 30.6 8.0%

US steel production decreased by 6.1% as manufacturing sector has slowed a" er rebound from lockdown. Several key factors including rising car prices and interest rates put downward pressure on US auto sales leading to contraction in steel demand.

Indian steel industry remained the bright spot in global steel industry performance in 2022. Strong growth in infrastructure projects led by government, better infiation management and rising manufacturing activities helped steel output to grow by 5.8% in 2022 a" er a 17.9% growth in 2021. Indias total crude steel production stood at 125 Million tons in 2022 as against 118 Million tons in 2021.

2.1.1 Input Prices

Iron ore is the key raw material for steelmaking. During the year 2022, iron ore prices were seen fiuctuating from USD 130/MT in Jan 2022 then rising to USD 150/MT in Apr 2022. Prices then started a downward trend to reach a low of USD 93/MT in Oct 2022 post which it increased again to reach a level of USD 126/MT in Mar 2023. Key reason for such fifluctuation can be attributed to Chinas steel demand and supply disruption due to Russia-Ukraine war.

During the start of the year 2022, geopolitical tension between Russia-Ukraine created a worldwide supply chain disruption since Ukraine was the * " h largest iron ore exporter (in 2021) in the world prior to the war situation. The sudden drop in iron ore supply in the steel market created an upward rise in the iron ore prices during the initial few months of the year. During the later part of the year from Apr 2022 till Nov 2022, Chinese steel production was cut in response to low domestic real estate demand and rising inventory levels leading to decline in iron ore prices in this period.

In Mid of Dec 2022, China made a U turn in its Zero COVID 19 policy and reopened the economy although COVID 19 related infections in the country were rising. With economic activities gaining momentum, steel demand also increased enabling steel mills in China to restock the iron ore. This caused iron ore prices to again increase post Dec 2022 to a level of USD 126/MT in Mar 2023.

Coking coal prices observed a sudden dip in prices a" er May 2022 & reached to a level of USD 239/MT in Jul 2022. Prices then moved up to reach a level of USD 343/MT by the end of Mar 2023. Coke prices observed relatively similar trend of fifluctuation to that of iron ore. Importantly, it is worthwhile to note that the diference between coking coal & coke prices have narrowed and reached to a level of as low as USD 93/MT.

2.1.2 Outlook

In its short-range outlook Apr 2023, World Steel Association predicted that global steel demand will see a recovery with 2.3% growth to reach 1,822.3 MT in 2023 and 1,854.0 MT in 2024 at a growth rate of 1.7%.

Among others, manufacturing sector is expected to lead the recovery in steel demand, however, higher interest rates may put negative pressure. In 2023, growth in steel demand is expected across most of the regions except China.

Chinas weak manufacturing sector performance in 2022 is expected to show only a moderate recovery in 2023-2024. Although infrastructure investment in China showed a strong growth of 9.4% with government support, this growth was largely in the sectors with less-steel demand such as telecommunications and logistics etc. A" er declining by 3.5% in 2022, Chinas total steel demand is expected to grow by 2.0% in 2023 and to remain fiat in 2024. EU steel industry will continue to feel the heat of the war, supply chain-related issues, increase energy prices, infiationary pressure and continued monetary tightening. Much depends on the result of the Russia-Ukraine war and when does it end.

Hence, the outlook of the EU steel industry is subject to continuing uncertainty. Affter a fall of 7.9% in 2022, demand is expected to fall further by 0.4% in 2023 and to grow by 5.6% in 2024.

United States manufacturing activities are expected to recover in 2023. Particularly, light vehicle sales are expected to rise by 8% in 2023 and further increase by 7% in 2024 which would help boost the steel demand. Further, expanding energy production would also help bene* t the Steel demand from the energy sector. A" er a decline of 2.6% in 2022, steel demand is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2023 and by 2.5% in 2024.

India has time and again shown the resiliency in its economic growth and steel demand. Infrastructure projects primarily led by government, increase in housing demand, rising private investments would help boost the steel demand in the country. Automotive and consumer durables are expected to maintain healthy growth in 2023 which would further add to the steel demand. A" er growth of 8.2% in 2022, steel demand is expected to show a healthy growth of 7.3% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024.

Particulars

Demand (Million tons) Growth (%)
2022 2023 (F) 2024 (F) 2022 2023 (F) 2024 (F)

World

1,781.5 1,822.3 1,854.0 -3.2 2.3 1.7

China

920.9 939.3 939.3 -3.5 2.0

EU and UK

151.8 151.3 159.8 -7.9 -0.4 5.6

India

114.9 123.3 130.9 8.2 7.3 6.2

US

94.5 95.8 98.2 -2.6 1.3 2.5

Japan

55.0 57.2 57.9 -4.2 4.0 1.2

South Korea

51.2 52.7 53.8 -8.6 2.9 2.0

Source : World Steel Association, Short Range Outlook, Apr 2023

2.2 Indian Steel Industry Overview

Strong growth in steel production amid global uncertainty

Indian steel industry plays a pivotal role in the economic growth of the country. Infrastructure projects led by government, increase in housing demand, auto sector coming back to pre-covid levels etc. is helping domestic steel demand to grow. Steel sector contributes around ~2% to the GDP with current level of production and capacities. National Steel Policy of 2017 envisages Indias steel production to reach at 300 Million tons by 2030 and thereby steel industrys contribution to the GDP is expected to rise further.

Indian steel industry faced numerous challenges in FY 2022-23 due to global negative shocks. The year started with global uncertainty amid Russia-Ukraine war causing supply chain disruptions across the world. For a country like India, where steel industry is completely dependent on imports for its basic raw material Coking coal & coke, supply chain related complications pose a signi* cant challenge.

Rise in commodity prices of key raw materials, increased the steel prices escalating the cost of majority of the ongoing projects in the country.

To cool of the rising prices, certain measures were taken by the Government. In May 2022, import duty on Anthracite / Pulverized Coal Injection (PCI) coal, Coke and Semi-coke and Ferronickel were reduced to zero while Export duty on Iron ores / concentrates and iron ore pellets was raised to 50% and 45% respectively. In addition, 15% export duty was imposed on pig iron and several steel products. Although it helped to reduce the steel prices, exports from the country hurt signi* cantly. A" er a decline in prices by around 15-25%, government rolled back the export duty in Nov 2022.

Total crude steel production for FY 2023 is estimated at 126 Million tons as against 118 Million tons in FY 2022. Finished steel export during FY 2023 stood at 6.7 Million tons as against 13.5 Million tons in FY 2022 showing a massive 50% reduction. Finished steel import during FY 2023 stood at 6.0 Million tons as against 4.6 Million tons in FY 2022, representing a growth of 30%.

2.2.1 Major Drivers of Growth

Automotive industry

In FY 2023, Passenger Vehicles (PV) sales stood at 4.5 Million vehicles as against 3.5 Million vehicles sales in FY 2022 registering a phenomenal growth of 29%. Similarly, Commercial vehicles (CV) sales rose to 1 Million vehicles registering similar growth level to that of PV at 29 % over FY 2022. Two wheelers (2W) sales registered a relatively low growth of 9% in FY 2023 at 19.5 Million vehicles as against 17.9 Million vehicles in FY 2022. Three wheelers (3W) sale stood at 0.85 Million as against a 0.75 Million in FY 2022 registering a growth of 12%. Only PV sales has crossed the pre-covid level however, CV, 2W & 3W are yet to catch up to the pre-covid level.

The robust performance & demand of Automotive industry against severe challenges such as of increased cost of ownership, high infiation & supply chain issues is a major growth driver of Indian Steel industry.

Construction & Infrastructure

Government of India, in its budget for FY 2023-24 announced total capital expenditure outlay of 10 Lac Crore; 33% higher than the previous year.

Increasing spending clearly signals governments impetus on using infrastructure development in the country as catalyst of economic growth.

Several key projects like PM GatiShakti for multi-modal connectivity, National Infrastructure Pipeline (NIP) aimed at providing best in class infrastructure to citizens, PM Awas Yojna to provide a# ordable housing to both rural & urban families, improving railway infrastructure, water infrastructure, UDAAN Scheme etc. would signi* cantly increase the steel demand in the country in near future.

2.2.2 Decarbonization of Steel Industry - Need of the Hour!

Globally, steel industry contributes nearly 7% of total global CO2 emissions making it the withh largest CO2 emitting industry on our planet. But we cant live without steel since its a basic commodity required in many industries such as Automotive, Infrastructure, Oil & Gas, Consumer durables, Energy, Railway etc.

Globally, on an average 1.91 tCO2 is emitted per MT of crude steel, however, in India, ~2.5 tCO2 is emitted per MT of crude steel. India is worlds second largest steel producer and as per National Steel Policy 2017 envisages to reach 300 Million tons capacity by 2030. With increased production in the country, CO2 emissions from the steel industry would go multifold if accelerated e# orts are not taken to decarbonize steelmaking operations in the country.

Developed countries are constantly updating their regulations to manage their carbon emissions. Take for example, EUs Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) wherein it would levy tax on all the materials imported in EU equivalent to the embedded CO2 emission. Unless we decarbonize our operations, entire steel export (along with export of the end use products, such as auto components etc.) would be at risk.

India has unique position when it comes to decarbonization because of its composition of di# erent steelmaking routes. 45% of total steel is produced via BF-BOF route, 27% by EAF route while 28% by Induction Furnace route. Decarbonizing EAF / IF route is a low hanging fruit which can quickly help India to emerge as global leader of green steel manufacturing.

Decarbonizing the EAF / IF route : It is a low hanging fruit since Rs70% of total emission in this route is due to usage of fossil fuel-based electricity. If we switch over from fossil fuel-based power to renewable energy, electrify various furnaces used, shi" to eco-friendly furls such as Bio-Diesel and make focused e orts to increase the energy effciency then Indian steel industry can quickly reduce emissions by a whopping Rs 22%

Decarbonizing BF-BOF route: A commercial large scale & viable solution for decarbonization of BF-BOF route is under development wherein Iron ore pellets are reduced using Green H2 as reductant. The entire process can be broken into 4 parts, 1. RE power 2. Green H2 production 3. Green DRI production 4. EAF / SAF steelmaking. Out of these 4 parts, large scale green H2 production & storage is under development, further green DRI manufacturing using green H2 as reductant is yet to be established as commercial large scale viable solution. Globally, few steel players have announced their plans to set up Green H2 based steelmaking plants to be commissioned by 2026 onwards. However, commercial viability of such plants is yet to be understood and known.

Working on the same principles of decarbonizing EAF / IF route to decarbonize the steelmaking operations, in India, Saarloha Advanced Materials Private Limited, a Kalyani group Company, launched Indias First Green Steel brand - KALYANI FeRRESTATM in the month of Dec 2022 by the hands of Hon. Minister of Steel & Civil Aviation, Shri. Jyotiraditya Scindia.

2.2.3 Outlook

Indian Steel industrys growth story has just begun!

Indian steel industry has shown resilient performance amid global uncertainty. With 76 Kg of per capita steel consumption as against a global average of 232 Kg, Indias growth story of steel production & consumption has just begun.

India is the bright spot in global map of steel industry when it comes to steel production. Indias steel production is continuously increasing and the country is witnessing newer capacities being added every year. Indias crude steel production is expected to grow at 7.2% CAGR through FY 2031.

As per World Steel Associations short-range outlook published in Apr 2023, it is estimated that Indias steel demand would grow at 7.3% & 6.2% in 2023 & 2024 respectively.

Although exports in FY 2023 su# ered due to export duty of 15% on steel products levied by government in the month of May 2022 till Nov 2022, a robust export growth in FY 2024 is likely because EUs energy crisis would continue amid the uncertain near-term results of Russia-Ukraine war and spillover e# ect of the war on steel consumption growth in these countries.

Some of the key growth drivers

Automotive : Growth momentum in FY 2023 is expected to continue even in FY 2024 as PV & CV driving the growth of Auto sales, while 2W & 3W catching to pre-pandemic levels. As per various rating agencies, Automotive industry is expected to grow by 7-9% in FY 2024 although steep price hikes are expected from Apr 2023 on account of stricter emission norms i.e., Real Driving Emissions (RDE) norms.

Renewable Energy : Every year ~12-15 GW of RE capacity is added in the country. As per Indias Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), India to reach 500 GW of RE power capacity by 2030 from a current ~170 GW capacity. This gives a signi* cant opportunity for steel demand growth in the country.

Infrastructure led by Government : Government has announced a huge capital outlay of Rs 10 lac crores (FY 2024) for large scale infrastructure projects to be implemented over 5 years timeframe. Such infrastructure led economic growth would provide signi* cant boost to the steel demand in the country.

Business Review

Operational Performance

FY 2022-23 was * lled with challenging environment, supply chain concerns, steep rise in few commodities, increase in input raw material cost etc. However, better management of volatile prices, cost reduction initiatives & quality improvement helped the Company to continue its pro* table journey.

Total Revenue from Operations for FY 2022-23 stood at Rs 18,994 Million as against Rs 17,060 Million in FY 2021-22 registering a growth of 11.34%. Revenue from Operations includes Manufacturing Revenue of Rs 18,568 Million, Trading Revenue of Rs 174 Million and other Operating Revenue of Rs 252 Million.

Pro* t before taxation for FY 2022-23 stood at Rs 2,251 Million as against Rs 3,258 Million in FY 2021-22.

Manufacturing Revenue consists of sale of Rolled Products, As Cast Blooms and Pig Iron. The Company sold 234,261 tons of Rolled Products aggregating Rs 17,429 Million, 11,103 tons of As Cast Blooms aggregating Rs 888 Million and 6,126 tons of Pig Iron aggregating to Rs 251 Million.

Key Financial Ratios

The Key Financial Ratios for FY 2022-23 and FY 2021-22 alongwith explanation for significant changes (change of 25% or more, if any) are as follows :

Particulars

2022-23 2021-22 Change (%)

Debtors Turnover

4.56 4.41 3.60

Inventory Turnover

4.37 5.71 (23.50)

Interest Coverage

10.75 29.14 (63.11)*

Ratio

Current Ratio

2.41 2.16 11.65

Debt Equity Ratio

0.34 0.32 6.08

Operating Pro* t

13.33 19.87 (32.93)**

Margin (%)

Net Pro* t Margin (%)

8.91 14.50 (38.55)**

Net Worth

14,894.78 13,674.62 8.92

( Rs in Million)

Return on Net

11.21 17.76 (36.87)**

Worth (%)

* Increase in utilization of bill discounting facility and short-term borrowing.

** Decrease in profits due to higher cost of consumption, finance charges and increase in foreign exchange fifluctuation losses.

Backward Integration

The Company is committed to increase the shareholders value through its cost-effective business structure, improvement in quality, continuously enhancing energy effciency etc. Initiatives in these areas have always helped the Company to stand out among its peers.

Continuing its journey towards excellence, the Company had undertaken to construct state of the art Non-recovery / Heat recovery, stamp charged Coke Oven with Modi* ed wet Quenching of hot coke and 17-18 MW Captive Power Plant to be operated utilizing waste heat energy of fiue gas generated from Coke Oven as a move towards backward integration, to have better control on the quality and to secure the supply chain.

It is a pleasure to inform you that the Company has commissioned the Coke oven plant adjacent to its steel plant situated at Village Ginigera, Hospet Road, Koppal District, Karnataka, with all its auxiliaries and utility systems and started its commercial production from March 31, 2023. The production has already attained the designed capacity and the product quality is amongst the best in the industry. The power plant with the turbine - generator with all the balance of plant (BOPs) with one of the two boilers has also been commissioned, while the second boiler to be added to the steam circuit is going to be commissioned shortly.

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IIFL Securities Limited - Stock Broker SEBI Regn. No: INZ000164132, PMS SEBI Regn. No: INP000002213,IA SEBI Regn. No: INA000000623, SEBI RA Regn. No: INH000000248

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We are ISO 27001:2013 Certified.

This Certificate Demonstrates That IIFL As An Organization Has Defined And Put In Place Best-Practice Information Security Processes.