The International Monetary Funds April 2026 World Economic Outlook, Global Economy in the Shadow of War, projects global growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. This marks a downward revision from the 3.3 percent projected for 2026 in the IMFs January 2026 Update, as the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East introduced a fresh shock to an economy that had, until that point, been absorbing elevated trade barriers with more resilience than expected. The reference forecast assumes the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, with disruptions fading by mid- 2026; a longer or broader conflict would weigh further on growth.
Global headline inflation is projected to tick up modestly in 2026, before resuming its decline in 2027, with pressure concentrated in emerging market and developing economies, particularly commodity importers with pre- existing vulnerabilities. This represents a reversal from the steadily moderating inflation path assumed at the start of the year, and reflects the pass- through of higher energy prices following the wars outbreak.
Even as the Middle East conflict has reintroduced downside pressure, several supportive forces continue to underpin global activity. Technology and artificial- intelligence- linked investment has remained a significant driver of momentum in economies with strong exposure to the sector, though the IMF flags a reassessment of AI- driven productivity expectations as a distinct risk to watch. Fiscal and monetary support, accommodative financial conditions in several major economies, and continued private- sector adaptability to a more volatile trade and policy environment have partly offset the drag from tariffs and geopolitical shocks.
In the United States, growth is supported by fiscal policy, including tax incentives for corporate investment under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025, and a lower policy rate, with the impact of higher trade barriers gradually waning through the year.
Ahead of the wars outbreak, the IMFs January 2026 Update had projected advanced- economy growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 1.7 percent in 2027, with the United States expanding by 2.4 percent in 2026 on the back of fiscal support and a lower policy rate, and the euro area growing by a comparatively subdued 1.3 percent in 2026 and 1.4 percent in 2027, restrained by structural headwinds and only a gradual build- up in defence spending. The April 2026 Outlooks downward revision to global growth is concentrated in the channels most exposed to the conflict - energy- importing emerging markets and economies most sensitive to shipping and commodity- market disruption - rather than a uniform pull- back across all regions.
Emerging market and developing economies, taken together, continue to account for the majority of global expansion. India remains the standout among major economies: the IMFs April 2026 World Economic Outlook lifted Indias FY2026- 27 growth projection to 6.5 percent, from 6.4 percent previously, citing strong domestic momentum and improved trade prospects, including carryover from a stronger FY 2025- 26. This compares with a South Asia regional growth path that the World Bank sees moderating to 6.3 percent in 2026, from 7 percent in 2025, before recovering to 6.9 percent in 2027, primarily on account of global energy- market disruption linked to the conflict.
The IMF is explicit that risks to the outlook are decisively on the downside. The dominant near- term risk is the Middle East conflict itself: a prolongation or broadening of the war could disrupt shipping routes and energy supply chains materially beyond the reference scenario, with the IMFs adverse scenario modelling an oil- price increase of as much as 80 percent (and gas prices up to 160 percent) relative to its January 2026 baseline. Beyond the conflict, increasing geopolitical fragmentation, a correction in highly valued technology equities, and renewed trade tensions could pose significant risks to global economic growth.
Separately, the IMFs April 2026 Outlook highlights a structural trend of rising defence spending across economies amid intensifying geopolitical tensions - in a typical spending boom, outlays increase by roughly 2.7 percentage points of GDP over two- and- a- half years, with about two- thirds financed through deficit - adding to already- elevated public debt and eroding the fiscal buffers many governments would otherwise rely on to respond to a shock.
Against this backdrop, the IMFs core policy recommendation is that governments and central banks should foster adaptability, enhance policy credibility, and reinforce international cooperation. Rebuilding fiscal buffers through credible medium- term consolidation, preserving price and financial stability in the face of a fresh energy- price shock, and reducing policy uncertainty are set out as immediate priorities, alongside the longer- standing structural reform agenda - labour markets, digitalisation and innovation - needed to lift medium- term potential growth, which the IMF still sees averaging a lacklustre 3.1 percent over 2028- 31, well below the pre- pandemic historical average of 3.7 percent.
The global economy enters the second half of FY 2025- 26 having absorbed one shock - elevated trade barriers - only to face another in the form of the Middle East conflict. Growth is still expected to hold up at a resilient, if unspectacular, 3.1 percent in 2026, but the balance of risk has shifted more firmly to the downside than it appeared as recently as January 2026. For businesses with meaningful export exposure and energy- price sensitivity, the environment underscores the importance of diversified markets, disciplined capital allocation, and the flexibility to adapt to a geopolitical backdrop that is evolving quickly.
India continued to stand out as the worlds fastest- growing major economy through FY 2025- 26. The Reserve Bank of India raised its real GDP growth projection for FY 2025- 26 to 7.4 percent at its February 2026 policy review, an upgrade from the 7.3 percent estimated in December, reflecting the durability of domestic demand even as global trade uncertainty and, subsequently, the Middle East conflict clouded the external outlook. For FY 2026- 27, the RBIs early view is more optimistic than external agencies, at around 6.9 percent, while the IMFs April 2026 World Economic Outlook projects 6.5 percent and the World Banks June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report projects 6.6 percent - each an upward revision from earlier in the year, even as both agencies simultaneously flagged slowing global growth on account of the war.
This momentum through FY26 was supported by robust private consumption, sustained public capital expenditure, and a rebound in government spending, even as export growth remained modest relative to import growth given global trade headwinds.
Indias growth continues to be shaped by resilient domestic consumption, expanding financial inclusion, and sustained government capital expenditure on infrastructure. The proposed India- EU Free Trade Agreement, expected to take effect by 2027, is increasingly cited by policymakers and exporters alike as a significant medium- term driver for Indias manufacturing and export- oriented sectors, including marine exports, given the countrys established presence in premium European markets. Production- Linked Incentive schemes continue to support manufacturing competitiveness, while improved monsoon conditions have supported rural demand and agricultural output.
The most significant new risk to Indias outlook through FY 2025- 26 and into FY 2026- 27 is the Middle East conflicts impact on energy prices. India remains a large net oil importer, and a sustained rise in crude prices directly widens the import bill, pressures the rupee, and feeds through to domestic inflation; the RBIs own inflation projection for FY27 stands at around 4.6 percent (as per its April 2026 policy review), with the IMF projecting CPI inflation of 4.7 percent before a gradual return toward the RBIs 4 percent target by FY28. Indias accelerating shift toward solar power and a more diversified crude sourcing base are expected to partially cushion this exposure, but it remains the single largest swing factor in the near- term outlook. Separately, trade friction with the United States, including elevated tariffs on select export categories, continues to weigh on external demand for labour- intensive exporting sectors.
The Reserve Bank of India has maintained a broadly supportive policy stance through FY26, balancing continued growth momentum against the risk of imported inflation from higher energy prices. Fiscal policy continues to prioritise capital expenditure on infrastructure while working toward gradual fiscal consolidation. Looking ahead, Indias ability to convert the India- EU FTA and continued reform momentum into sustained high growth will depend on how effectively the economy manages the energy- price pass- through from the Middle East conflict, alongside the longer- standing agenda of deepening manufacturing capacity and global supply- chain integration.
Indias economic outlook for FY 2026- 27 remains one of resilient, above- 6- percent growth amid a more complicated global backdrop than existed a year earlier. Strong domestic demand and continued policy support underpin this resilience, while the Middle East conflicts effect on oil prices, and its knock- on impact on inflation and the currency, represents the key variable to monitor. Indias relative insulation from direct war exposure, combined with its scale of domestic consumption, continues to support its position as a comparatively bright spot among major economies.
The global shrimp market was valued at approximately USD 79.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 121.4 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.5 percent between 2026 and 2033, according to Grand View Research. L. Vannamei continued to dominate the species mix, accounting for a 44.3 percent revenue share in 2025, while aquaculture- sourced shrimp accounted for 60.1 percent of the market, reflecting the continued shift away from wild capture toward controlled, higher- yield farming systems.
Asia-Pacific: approximately 52% of global market share (2025) - scale in production, deep local demand, and continued technology upgrades sustain the regions leadership (India, Vietnam, China, Ecuador as key producers and exporters).- North America: approximately 23.7% of global market share (2025), driven by convenience products, foodservice recovery, and continued demand for traceable, sustainably sourced shrimp.- Europe: import- led demand continues to grow on premium, sustainable and organic positioning, alongside continued retail-chain expansion for value-added formats.
Protein and health positioning: continued consumer shift toward low-fat, high-protein seafood, with omega-3 and nutrition messaging expanding the addressable market.- Value-added convenience: sustained uptake of frozen, ready-to-cook and breaded formats aligned with modern retail and foodservice trends.- Aquaculture scale and technology: productivity gains from selective breeding, improved biosecurity and feed management continue to underpin supply reliability and cost control.- Cold chain and e-commerce: expanding frozen distribution and online grocery penetration continue to accelerate B2C growth, including into secondary cities.
Disease outbreaks and biosecurity: viral diseases (WSSV, AHPND/EMS, YHV, IHHNV) remain a persistent risk to production continuity across the industry.- Environmental and social impacts: continued scrutiny of pond expansion, mangrove loss and biodiversity impacts is driving stricter regulation and certification requirements in key producing geographies.
Supply chain and logistics disruption: the Middle East conflict has introduced renewed risk to shipping routes and freight costs on lanes connecting Asian producers to European and Mediterranean markets, adding to the industrys existing exposure to feed, freight and energy-cost volatility.
Trade and market access: evolving tariff and non-tariff barriers, and shifting retailer sourcing standards, continue to have the potential to redirect trade flows and compress exporter margins.
The global shrimp industry remains led by a mix of integrated processors and branded seafood majors, including Thai Union Group, Charoen Pokphand Foods (CP Foods), Maruha Nichiro Corporation, Nippon Suisan Kaisha (Nissui), and Minh Phu Seafood Corporation, which together account for a significant share of global revenue, alongside a long tail of regional and format- focused players competing on traceability, certification and product innovation.
The mix shift toward value- added and retail B2C formats is expected to continue, supported by foodservice recovery in developed markets. Species mix is expected to remain L. vannamei- heavy, with selective breeding and hatchery capacity remaining pivotal to defending yields against disease pressure. Sustainability credentials are expected to command a growing premium, particularly in Europe, while AsiaPacific is expected to retain its production and export leadership through the remainder of the decade.
The Indian shrimp market was valued at approximately USD 10.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 23.2 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.7 percent, reflecting Indias position as one of the worlds leading shrimp producing and exporting nations, underpinned by favourable coastal geography, advancing aquaculture technology, and continued government support for the sector.
Consumer demand for shrimp continues to be supported by its positioning as a low- fat, high- protein, nutrient- rich food, with rising health consciousness continuing to draw consumers toward seafood as an alternative to meat and poultry.
India remains among the largest global producers and exporters of shrimp, with Penaeus vannamei accounting for the bulk of export volumes to key destinations including the United States, the European Union and Japan. The sector continues to benefit from favourable trade relationships and rising global demand for high- quality, traceable seafood, though exporters remain exposed to tariff policy shifts in key destination markets.
Continued investment in breeding, feed quality, water management and disease control across the industry has supported improvements in yield per hectare, lower mortality rates and better overall product quality, trends that are expected to continue as farms scale and adopt more intensive, technology- enabled systems.
Coastal shrimp farming continues to face scrutiny over mangrove loss, salinisation and habitat impact, with international buyers increasingly favouring sustainably sourced and certified supply.
Inconsistent biosecurity standards across smaller farms continue to leave parts of the industry exposed to disease- driven production shocks, particularly in the absence of uniform industry- wide protocols.
Fragmented, small- scale farming operations, particularly in rural and coastal areas, continue to face gaps in processing and cold- chain infrastructure, creating quality and consistency challenges for export- oriented supply chains.
Continued shift toward sustainable and eco- friendly farming practices, driven by both regulatory pressure and international buyer requirements.
Growing demand for value- added shrimp products - cocktails, skewers, tempura and ready- to- cook formats - as urban consumers seek convenience.
Increasing emphasis on traceability and food safety, with blockchain, barcoding and QR- based systems continuing to gain adoption across export- oriented supply chains.
Estimates of the global seafood markets size vary meaningfully across research providers depending on scope and methodology; Fortune Business Insights placed the broader global seafood market at approximately USD 386.99 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 406.10 billion in 2026 and USD 724.29 billion by 2034, a CAGR of 7.50 percent, with AsiaPacific holding the largest regional share at 44.17 percent in 2025. Within this, the more narrowly defined global fish processing segment was estimated at approximately USD 218- 226 billion in 2025- 26 by other providers, growing at a mid- single- digit CAGR through the early 2030s. Demand continues to be supported by the nutritional profile of seafood - including vitamin B12, phosphorus, magnesium and potassium - and by rising consumer preference for processed and ready- to- cook formats over unprocessed catch.
Continued growth in global fisheries and aquaculture production remains the primary structural support for the processed seafood industry, alongside sustained regulatory emphasis on product quality and safety, particularly in the European Union, which continues to maintain harmonised import standards across member states that shape quality practices industry- wide.
North America remains a mature, steady- growth market underpinned by strong consumer preference for frozen and easy- to- prepare seafood formats. Asia- Pacific is expected to retain a prominent, and likely growing, share of the global market, supported by rising health- conscious consumption in India and China and continued expansion of organised retail into fish and seafood categories.
The global processed seafood market remains led by Maruha Nichiro Corp., Mowi ASA, Nippon Suisan Kaisha (Nissui Corp.), Trident Seafoods, High Liner Foods, Seaboard Corp. and Thai Union Group, with continued consolidation activity and product innovation as key players compete for shelf and foodservice share.
The Indian seafood market was valued at approximately USD 12.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 25.2 billion by 2033, a CAGR of 9.7 percent, according to IMARC Group, with growth underpinned by rising health- conscious consumption, an expanding middle class, and continued investment in aquaculture and cold- chain infrastructure. India also became the worlds second- largest fish producer by volume in FY 2024- 25, accounting for roughly 8 percent of global fish production.
Per- capita seafood consumption in India continues on a rising trend, supported by changing dietary habits and continued promotional efforts by bodies such as the Marine Products Export Development Authority (MPEDA) to highlight the nutritional benefits of seafood.
The Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana continues to underpin sector- wide investment in aquaculture infrastructure and modernisation, complemented by continued Union Budget allocations toward the fisheries sector, together creating a supportive policy backdrop for organised, export- oriented seafood enterprises.
Export demand for Indian seafood, particularly to the United States, the European Union and Japan, remains a significant growth driver, supported by rising international quality- standard adoption among Indian producers, even as tariff policy in key destination markets continues to warrant close monitoring.
The Indian seafood market remains fragmented, with a mix of established exporters and processors competing on sourcing capability, traceability and distribution reach. Companies that combine supply assurance with certification and branded retail presence continue to be best positioned to capture the shift toward organised, value- added consumption, both domestically and in export markets.
Kings Infra Ventures Limited (Kings Infra, the Company) is an integrated aquaculture and seafood enterprise with operations spanning sustainable land- based shrimp farming, seafood processing and exports. Incorporated in 1987, the Company pioneered Indias first integrated semi- intensive aquaculture project and laid the foundation for what would later be known as the countrys Blue Revolution, evolving over nearly four decades into a technology- enabled, professionally managed aquaculture and seafood solutions provider anchored by its proprietary SISTA360 farming protocol.
FY26 was a year of leadership transition for the Company, following the demise of founding Chairman and Managing Director Mr. Shaji Baby John on December 14, 2025. The Board moved swiftly to ensure continuity: Mr. Baby John Shaji, then Joint Managing Director, assumed interim charge and was subsequently appointed him as a Managing Director for a five- year term effective February 6, 2026, an appointment ratified by shareholders via postal ballot on March 11, 2026. Through this transition, the Company sharpened its focus on its core competencies of aquaculture and exports, which underpinned a strong farm- level performance for the year.
Aquaculture Operations - the Companys principal revenue contributor, built on sustainable land- based shrimp farming using modified RAS and biofloc systems under the proprietary SISTA360 protocol, which continued to deliver productivity and survival outcomes ahead of conventional industry benchmarks.
The Company delivered a strong financial performance for FY26, with growth across all key metrics despite a challenging operating environment marked by global trade uncertainty and a significant internal leadership transition.
| Particulars ( Crore) | FY25 | FY26 | YoY Change |
| Revenue from Operations | 124.63 | 162.15 | +30.13% |
| EBITDA | 24.35 | 30.98 | +27.22% |
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 19.54% | 19.11% | -43 bps |
| Profit Before Tax (PBT) | 17.73 | 22.30 | +25.78% |
| Profit After Tax (PAT) | 13.15 | 16.36 | +24.41% |
| PAT Margin (%) | 10.55% | 10.09% | -46 bps |
| Earnings Per Share ( ) | 5.37 | 6.68 | +24.39% |
| Q4 Revenue (Standalone) | 32.36 | 46.85 | +44.77% |
| Q4 EBITDA | 6.12 | 9.39 | +53.43% |
Revenue growth of 30.13% 30.13% was supported by robust farm- level performance and export execution. EBITDA margin moderated marginally to 19.11% 19.11% from 19.54% 19.54% , while PAT margin eased slightly to 10.09% 10.09% from 10.55% 10.55% , reflecting costs associated with the leadership transition and continued investment in strategic initiatives during the year. Management has indicated that the India- EU FTA, combined with the SCDMO execution framework introduced for FY27, is expected to support both topline acceleration and margin improvement going forward.
Leadership transition: following the passing of founding Chairman and Managing Director Mr. Shaji Baby John on December 14, 2025, Mr. Baby John Shaji was appointed Managing Director for a five- year term effective February 6, 2026, ratified by shareholders on March 11, 2026.
Strategic reassessment - In FY25, the Company had announced a proposed acquisition of Siraqua Seafoods, Visakhapatnam, intended to strengthen its presence in Andhra Pradesh. Following detailed evaluation by independent consultants and domain experts during FY26, the Board concluded that proceeding with this acquisition would not be in the best interests of the Company and its stakeholders, and the transaction was discontinued. This reflects the Companys discipline in capital allocation and its willingness to reassess previously announced initiatives where circumstances warrant.
The management outlines its clear strategies for the financial year 2026- 27 and introduced the five- pillar execution framework - SYNERGISE, CONSOLIDATE, DIGITISE, MONETISE AND OPTIMISE (SCDMO) - intended for sustained growth. The framework is designed to deepen focus on the Companys core aquaculture and export operations, accelerate technology and digital traceability adoption, unlock capital through monetisation of non- core land assets, and institutionalise stronger performance accountability across business units.
Sector and demand risk: The Company operates in a export sector exposed to global demand volatility, tariff and trade-policy shifts, and amidst geopolitical tension.
Biosecurity and disease: inherent to aquaculture despite robust protocols; the Company relies on multi-layer water treatment, its SISTA360 protocol and disciplined pond management to manage this exposure.
Currency exposure: partly hedged through USD-denominated export earnings, though currency fluctuations can still affect margins.
Sustainability and ESG
Sustainability and ESGKings Infra is transitioning its farming operations toward Best Aquaculture Practices (BAP) certification, supported by zero- discharge water systems and packaging designed for domestic market entry. Traceability is built in through blockchain technology, and the Maritech Eco Park has been designed as a climate- resilient, fully indoor facility.
FY26s most significant human- capital milestone was the leadership transition itself. The Board acted swiftly to appoint Mr. Baby John Shaji as Managing Director, and the Companys financial and operating performance held steady through the changeover - a strong signal of the depth and maturity of Kings Infras professional management bench below the founder level.
The Company continues to build out its leadership team with seasoned professionals across key functions, reinforcing a culture of expertise and innovation. Collectively, the leadership brings multi- decade experience in aquaculture and processing. Going forward, managements priorities are technology integration, operational excellence, and expansion in the domestic market.
Kings Infra continues to strengthen its control environment in line with expansion- across biosecurity SOPs, quality assurance in processing/export, inventory controls, and traceability from pond to plate. The focus remains on systematising processes as scale increases (factories/leased farms/retail nodes) and aligning with international buyer specifications and audits.
The Strategic vision outlines for the growth of the company, the positive development of the India- EU free trade agreement and the company expanding food prints in the global market, kings Infra look forward to export led growth and sustainability.
Statements in this Management Discussion and Analysis regarding future plans, targets, project timelines and investment figures constitute forward- looking statements based on managements current assessment of market conditions, regulatory approvals and operating plans. Actual outcomes may differ materially from these statements due to changes in market conditions, execution timelines, regulatory approvals, and other factors beyond the Companys control. The Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.
IIFL Customer Care Number
(Gold/NCD/NBFC/Insurance/NPS)
1860-267-3000 / 7039-050-000
IIFL Capital Services Support WhatsApp Number
+91 9892691696
Download The App Now
Follow us on
2026, IIFL Capital Services Ltd. All Rights Reserved
IIFL Capital Services Limited - Stock Broker SEBI Regn. No: INZ000164132 (Member ID - NSE: 10975 BSE: 179 MCX: 55995 NCDEX: 01249), DP SEBI Reg. No. IN-DP-185-2016, PMS SEBI Regn. No: INP000002213, IA SEBI Regn. No: INA000000623, Merchant Banker SEBI Regn. No. INM000010940, RA SEBI Regn. No: INH000000248, BSE Enlistment Number (RA): 5016, AMFI-Registered Mutual Fund Distributor & SIF Distributor
ARN NO : 47791 (Date of initial registration – 17/02/2007; Current validity of ARN – 08/02/2027), PFRDA Reg. No. PoP 20092018, IRDAI Corporate Agent (Composite) : CA1099
This Certificate Demonstrates That IIFL As An Organization Has Defined And Put In Place Best-Practice Information Security Processes.
