vishnu chemicals ltd share price Management discussions


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MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS

Global Economy

The global economy remains on track for a gradual recovery, after being affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. While advanced economies are expected to have a pronounced slowdown in growth, the resilience shown by Asia is a positive sign for global trade and logistics. With the supply chain disruptions subsequently easing and the inflationary trends in energy subsiding through the second half of 2022-23, it is expected to create a better equilibrium between demand and supply. This will have an overall positive impact on the global economy in the years to come.

Inflation has proven to be stickier than expected, with core inflation still peaking in many countries. Global inflation is set to decrease, although more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7% in 2022 to 7.0% in 2023 and 4.9% in 2024. This is aided by the fact that most of the central banks are implementing a massive and synchronised tightening of monetary policy, with the objective of slowing down the inflation to move back towards its targets. In addition, strong labour markets in most advanced economies suggest stronger-than-expected aggregate demand that may require monetary policy to tighten further or to stay tighter for longer than anticipated.

The rising interest rates globally were expected to spiral the world into a tip of recession but the global economy has shown tremendous resilience to avoid that scenario. Though, it meant that practically every country had to deal with weaker currencies, not necessarily boosting the exports. Quality and consistency has been the priorities of global trade in the post-Covid-19 pandemic era.

Global Economic Growth (% Change)

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth was estimated to slow down from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023. While the global economic outlook for advanced economies is expected to experience a significant decline in growth reducing from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023, the developing economies are expected to maintain their pace of robust growth. The sluggish economic forecast of advanced economies can be attributed to a higher base of GDP, the tight policy stances taken to combat inflation and the increasing fragmentation in geoeconomics. For emerging markets and developing economies, the economic prospects are generally stronger than those of advanced economies, although the growth prospects vary significantly across different regions. The average growth rate is expected to be 3.9% in 2023, with a projected increase to 4.2% in 2024.

Outlook

It is positive to see that energy prices have cooled with Brent crude trending at less than USD 100 a barrel. The inflation seems to have peaked and the trajectory of growth is expected to improve steadily. There is a widespread expectation of decrease in medium-term growth estimates due to the high- base effect. The natural convergence of previously fast-growing economies and advancing developing economies is expected to bridge the gap and bring economies closer to each other.

(Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2023: A Rocky Recovery (imf.org)

Indian economy

Indias consistent demonstration of growth and resilience has made it a powerhouse of an economy with a place of its own in the world post-Covid-19 pandemic. India has risen from the tenth to the fifth-largest economy in the world over the past decade. This economic success is largely attributed to key reforms including liberalisation, investment in infrastructure and improved access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises. Despite challenges posed by the global environment, India has been the fastest-growing major economy for the past three years.

The Indian economy has demonstrated complete recovery in 2021-22, ahead of many other nations, positioning it to return to its pre-Covid-19 pandemic growth trajectory in 2022-23. Despite the challenges posed by inflation, India has demonstrated resilience. Economists worldwide project that India will be the fastest-growing major economy with a growth rate of 6.9% in 2022-23, a testament to the strength of the Indian economy. Indias overall export in 2022-23 rose by 14% standing at USD 775.87 Bn and almost USD 100 Bn more than last year on an absolute basis. This has resulted in higher production activity and capacity utilisation across various sectors.

Outlook

The Economic Survey released by the Central Government, projects a baseline GDP growth for India in 2023-24. Indias growth prospects have an upside due to several factors. The recent surge of post-Covid-19 pandemic in certain developing economies has not caused significant health or economic disruptions in the rest of the world, resulting in the continued normalisation of supply chains. A stable domestic inflation rate below 6%, coupled with improved investor sentiment is expected to stimulate private sector investments and domestic consumption.

Industry Overview

Indian Chemical Industry Overview

Indias chemical industry demand has impressed the world in the past decade, making it a global outperformed As a result, India is expected to play a more dominant role in both consumption and manufacturing in the global arena. With changing geopolitical scenarios, many countries have shifted their focus to domestic self-sufficiency and localised supply chains. India has a strong starting point in terms of manufacturing competitiveness when compared to other major global chemical clusters, which could position India as the preferred destination for the procurement of chemicals.

The thriving chemical industry is expected to grow at 1112% during 2021-27 and 7-10% during 2027-40 tripling its global market share by 2040 creating an additional USD 700 Bn market value, over and above the current contribution of USD 170-180 Bn as of 2021. Indias impressive standing in the global chemical industry serves as a testament to its strong fundamentals. Currently, it ranks 12th in the world for chemical exports and 5th for chemical imports.

Source - India: The next chemicals manufacturing hub by McKinsey & Company, March 2023

Indias exports of chemicals was USD 36.6 Bn in 2020, whereas its imports stood at USD 53.1 Bn in 2020.

The countrys share in the world exports and imports of chemicals hovered at 2.4% and 3.4%, respectively, in 2020.

Source - Care Edge Research: India-Inorganic Chemical Industry, March 2023

Global Chemical Industry Overview

The global chemicals sales recorded USD 4,307 Bn in 2021 from USD 3,739 Bn in 2020 , with a CAGR of 4.1% and is estimated to grow by 5% to 6% through 2027. This growth will be largely driven by developing markets like the Asia-Pacific region (APAC), which are likely to achieve a higher CAGR of around 7%-8%. In comparison, the growth in more matured markets, such as the US and Europe is expected to be around 2%-4%.

Sales from 10 countries accounted for a significant share of 86.6%, representing USD 3,434 Bn of sales during 2021. Sales from rest of the world contributed to 13.4% of the Total sales in CY21. China stands out as the world leader in chemical sales, with a commanding 40.2% share of the market, amounting to a staggering USD 1,850 Bn.

It is followed by Europe (comprising 27 nations), the US, Japan, and South Korea. India, on the other hand, secured the sixth position with a notable contribution of USD 111 Bn, accounting for 2.4% of the global chemical sales.

Indian Speciality Chemical Industry Overview

The Indian specialty chemicals industry has experienced remarkable growth in the recent past. This expansion can be attributed to the increased demand from many end- user sectors, favourable Government policies, a growing domestic customer base, and premiumisation in consumer lifestyles, among other factors.

In terms of trade, speciality chemicals hold substantial weight, accounting for over 50% of chemical exports from India. Moreover, it is one of the fastest-growing segments in the countrys manufacturing sector.

Indian Speciality Chemicals Industry Size (usd Bn)

indian inorganic Chemical industry Overview

Inorganic chemicals are the third-largest segment of the chemical industry in India. According to the Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals, this segment constituted about 8.7% of the Total chemicals output during FY21. In FY22, the situation improved as the production of inorganic chemicals on an aggregate basis grew to 340,000 metric tonnes during the four months (April-July) of FY22. It further increased by 4.4% during April-July of FY23 to 355,000 metric tonnes, primarily due to low-base effect and a pick-up in demand of inorganic chemicals.

Outlook

India is emerging as a preferred manufacturing destination for global businesses due to its strategic location, strong manufacturing capabilities, effective process engineering expertise, and highly skilled workforce. Indias chemical manufacturing capabilities are diverse. It is thriving with a focus on producing high-value-added products, such as speciality chemicals, that caters to specific applications, including pharmaceuticals, clean energy and personal care products. India has already established itself as a major producer and exporter of various niche speciality chemicals.

The Indian chemical industry has experienced steady growth over the past decade, and there exists a strong potential for future growth. Within the chemical industry, the consumption and imports of inorganic chemicals have registered a CAGR of 12.5% and 4.1%, respectively, over the five-year period between 2016-17 and 2020-21. The demand for inorganic chemicals is expected to sustain its healthy upward momentum in the coming years. This is backed by low per capita consumption, rising demand for speciality chemicals, and expected growth in downstream sectors like paints, pigments, coatings, pharmaceuticals, textiles, personal care, clean energy along with the growth in diversified manufacturing base. In addition to this, several factors, such as growing population and urbanisation are fuelling the growth. Furthermore, the improvement in disposable income, which has increased at a CAGR of 10.7% in the last 10 years, is also expected to aid the growth momentum in India.

India is emerging as a manufacturing hub for high-value goods, as well as a consumer-driven economy in the years to come. The chemical industry is likely to benefit from improvements in the investment climate, speedy approval of projects, and proposed reform measures that would translate into higher industrial activity to meet the rising demand for a more urban and performance-driven generation.

Opportunities

Rise in the Demand of Speciality Chemicalsin Different End-user industries

The speciality chemicals market is experiencing rapid growth due to increased demand from existing and emerging end-user sectors. These include textiles, construction, clean energy, personal care, home care, automobiles and consumer durables. The rise in per capita income has driven the development of premium consumption categories. Additionally, increased urbanisation has led to demand for products that make consumers life easier. Moreover, Government initiatives, such as smart cities and several infrastructure projects are expected to boost demand for construction sector.

An increased Government funding in rural markets has also resulted in greater demand for consumer and industrial products that require performance additives.

Competitive Electricity Cost

India fares well in terms of electricity costs for industrial usagecomparedtohighelectricity costsof6-11% as a percentage of sales, in other major economies, with an average cost of USD 0.07/kWh in March 2022. Most developed countries have a higher average electricity cost, ranging from USD 0.17-0.44/kWh, while Chinas cost is marginally higher, the Middle East countries have access to significantly lower electricity costs, ranging from USD 0.005-0.05/kWh.

Indias electricity Cost for Industrial users Fares Well Due to High Coal Usage (USD/kWh, Mar22)

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Competitive Advantage of indian Companies

Over thepastfewyears,India has takenthe opportunity to increase its share of global chemical exports. It is evident from the fact that speciality chemical producers in the country have witnessed increased demand from end-user sectors across the world, accounting for 20.25% of the entire chemical industry. In addition, Indian companies have reported good returns on capital employed since FY 2017. Furthermore, the relatively lower hourly wages in India as compared to China have positioned Indian companies to produce speciality chemicals at a lower cost. This cost advantage has enabled them to export their products to the two largest international markets - the US and the European Union. Labour Costs Benefit from Manufacturing in India (per hour USD)

Government initiatives

The Government has taken several initiatives, such as Production Linked Incentives (PLI) Scheme, Aatmanirbhar Bharat, Petroleum, Chemicals, and Petrochemicals Investment Regions (PCPIRs), and National Logistics Policy, to boost domestic production.

PCPiR Scheme

The Government aims to redraft PCPIR guidelines, which may raise investments and provide the basic raw materials for the chemical industry in India.

Operational

On consolidated basis, Total income for FY 2022-23 grew by 31% to Rs.1,40,620.57 Lakhs compared to Rs. 1,07,475.93 Lakhs in previous year. PAT is Rs.13,656.64 Lakhs, registering a growth of 68% over the previous years PAT of Rs. 8,139.28 Lakhs. On standalone basis, Total income for FY 2022-23 grew by 35% to Rs.1,23,736.21 Lakhs compared to Rs. 91,328.66 Lakhs, generated previous year. PAT stands at Rs. 12,934.47 Lakhs, an increase of 98% over the previous years PAT of Rs. 6,523.90 Lakhs.

Risk Management

Vishnu Chemicals diligently evaluates risks on a routine basis, and proactively devises novel strategies to navigate shifting market conditions. The Company believes in nipping risks in the bud to ensure the seamless continuation of operations. The Audit Committee and Management work hand-in-hand to identify and mitigate potential risks. Below are some of the Companys risks and their corresponding mitigation methods.

Risk

Impact

Mitigation

Sluggish Financial Climate

A deceleration in the Indian economy has the potential to adversely impact the organisations revenue, leading to a decline in its profitability.

Vishnu Chemicals offers its diverse range of products to both domestic and international markets, thereby reducing its market risk and expanding its global reach.

Supply Chain Disruption

The chemical industry faces a significant challenge in the form of global price volatility for raw materials. A shortage of raw materials or sudden price fluctuations can impede the manufacturing process and potentially harm the financial performance of the industry.

With its prominent position in the industry, Vishnu Chemicals takes proactive measures to ensure that it is not affected by raw material shortages. The Company maintains adequate inventory of essential raw materials to alleviate any potential risks. This enables seamless operations of Vishnu Chemicals, both domestically and internationally, ensuring uninterrupted production of high-quality chemicals.

Green Responsibility

Vishnu Chemicals environmental impact is a direct result of the industry it operates in. Chemical accidents pose a threat to the environment, health and safety of society, and the viability of businesses. Chemical companies are responsible for not only complying with environmental standards but also for adding value to society.

Vishnu Chemicals complies with all environmental rules and regulations laid by the Government. Individual facilities have robust safety procedures and practices in place to counteract this threat. Furthermore, in accordance with rules, the Company handles risky materials in a safe manner. It has also made significant expenditures on environmentally friendly projects that will help the Company to improve its sustainability aspect consistently.

Competitive Landscape

The chemical industry is marked by intense competition among its numerous players. Failing to swiftly seize opportunities can negatively impact Vishnu Chemicals profitability.

Vishnu Chemicals continuously explores the dynamic landscape of the chemical industry. The Company prioritises agility and proactive measures to stay ahead of the curve in this fiercely competitive landscape. It is quick to seize new opportunities and augment its portfolio with innovative products.

Internal Financial Control

The internal financial control systems of Vishnu Chemicals are commensurate with its size and the nature of its operations. These have been designed to provide reasonable assurance regarding several aspects.

These include recording and providing reliable financial and operational information, complying with applicable accounting standards and relevant statutes, safeguarding assets from unauthorised use, executing transactions with proper authorisation, and ensuring compliance with corporate policies. The Company has a well-defined delegation of authority with specified limits for approval of expenditures, both capital and revenue. It uses an established ERP system to record day-to-day transactions for accounting and financial reporting. The Audit Committee had deliberations with the Management team to consider the internal financial control systems. Additionally, the Committee consulted with both the internal and statutory auditors and sought their views on the effectiveness of these systems. The objective was to ensure that the systems in place were operating optimally. The Audit Committee confirmed the sufficiency and efficiency of the internal financial control system as established and kept the Board of Directors informed about its findings. However, Vishnu Chemicals recognises that no matter how robust the internal control framework is, it has inherent limitations. Accordingly, the Company conducts periodical audits and reviews to ensure that such systems are updated at regular intervals.

Human Resources

Vishnu Chemicals places high value on its human capital, which it regards as its most critical asset, and ensures that its employees are treated with respect and dignity at all times. The Companys has successfully ingrained a balance mix of experience and youth in its team, which allows a holistic approach to varied situations. Enriching employee knowledge is a fundamental value of the Company, and to fulfil the same, the Company has prioritised the training and development of its human capital. In addition, it organises team-building exercises through sports & recreation, while encouraging work-life balance, which leads to improved productivity and longevity. The enhancement of the Companys human resources skill sets has led to better execution, communication, and best-in-class customer service for its global clientele.

Outlook

The outlook of Vishnu Chemicals appears positive and is driven by a combination of micro and macro factors.

The Companys market share is expanding due to its multi-site capabilities, manufacturing focus, procurement strategies and balanced approach to improve its profitability. The Company is setting the bar high with its remarkable achievement of crossing ^ 100 Cr of PAT in 2022-23. In recognition of its outstanding performance, Vishnu Chemicals has been honoured with the esteemed ‘Company of the Year award at the Dare to Dream Awards, 2022. Vishnu Chemicals has experienced a tremendously successful year, marked by impressive output, sound financial health, and recognition, both at the national and global level, for its chemical expertise. With a strong market position, diverse product range, extensive end-user industries, and a dynamic distribution network with top- tier clients, Vishnu Chemicals is well positioned to deliver profitable growth in the future.