Insights from Nokia MBiT Report

24 Feb 2023 , 10:06 AM

Analysts at IIFL Capital Services look at a few interesting data points from the recently released Nokia Mobile Broadband Index (MBiT) Report 2023.

 

As an equipment supplier to leading telcos and considering the interconnected nature of telecom networks, Nokia has access to fairly detailed stats on the smartphone base and data usage patterns in India. 

• At 465PB/day in December 2022, the overall data consumption grew by a decent 14% YoY, despite the high base. Class C circles (higher rural salience) saw 23% growth (the highest), which can be attributed to Bharti stepping up rural rollouts after acquiring low-frequency spectrum in 2021.

 

• Per-capita usage continues to rise steadily (19.5GB/month in December 2022), while subscriber adds have slowed down. Nokia expects this to climb to 46GB by 2027. With most apps selecting higher feed density, better resolution videos/images depending on the connection’s quality — we think Nokia’s estimate is reasonable once 5G gathers momentum.

 

• The installed base of 5G-capable devices stood at 85mn, as of December 2022. Nokia expects that shipments of 5G handsets will surpass those of 4G handsets, by the end of 2023 (as per IDC, the ratio of 5G-to-4G handset shipments was 35:65 in 2022).

 

• Nokia estimates 150mn 5G subs by 2024, and 120PB/day 5G usage in 2024. Assuming a suitable 5G user base ramp-up profile, the implied monthly per-capita data usage on 5G comes to ~35GB.

 

• Almost 40% of the overall 5G revenue in India could come from the Enterprise segment.

 

• Globally, private wireless networks are experiencing healthy traction. Nokia estimates total spend on private wireless networks in India to reach US$240mn by 2027.