JIO strong; Bharti healthy; Vi continues to lose: IIFL Capital Services

2 Aug 2023 , 10:33 AM

As per TRAI’s May’23 subscriber data: 1) JIO saw the highest reported VLR (active) and mobile broadband net adds. 2) Bharti’s subscriber adds (reported and active) were healthy. 3) Bharti’s 4G cumulative adds of 4.43mn in April and May are tracking in line with analysts of IIFL Capital Services est. of 7mn adds for Q1.4) Vi continued to lose subs. On fixed broadband sub adds, JIO sustained its pace, which is 2x of Bharti Based on TRAI subscriber data, analysts of IIFL Capital Services maintain their est. of 3.3% QoQ mobile revenue growth for Bharti. 

JIO led on reported sub adds: 

On a reported basis, JIO added 3.04mn mobile subs in May — the same as in April. Bharti’s 1.33mn adds in May marked a reversion to its usual monthly run-rate after an exceptionally muted April (+0.08mn net adds). At 2.82mn, Vi’s sub loss remained elevated for the second consecutive month. 

JIO led on active subs; Bharti above recent monthly average: 

On active subs, JIO added 4.9mn in May vs 4.68mn in April. Bharti added 2.37mn in May, above its recent monthly average. Vi’s 1.79mn loss was the highest since Dec’22. As of May-end, JIO/Bharti/Vi had active sub base of 412mn/373mn/205mn. 

Bharti’s & JIO’s mobile broadband subs healthy: 

On mobile broadband subs (4G+5G), Bharti saw 2.1mn adds in May — below the recent monthly average and JIO’s 3.04mn adds. Vi’s mobile broadband subs remained flat in May vs 1.25mn sub loss in April. Bharti’s 4.43mn mobile broadband subs in April+May are tracking in line with analysts of IIFL Capital Services est. of 7mn adds for Q1. 

Fixed BB adds similar to recent months for JIO and Bharti: 

On fixed broadband subs, JIO’s 0.27mn adds in May were similar to the recent months. Bharti’s 0.15mn adds were also steady. BSNL reported a small loss. As of May-end, JIO/Bharti/BSNL had 8.92mn/6.4mn/3.61mn fixed BB sub base.