Market Speaks: Spot Price Of Brent Crude To Average $105 Per Barrel In 2022 Says EIA

10 Aug 2022 , 03:22 PM

The US EIA noted in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that the near term price outlook is subject to heightened uncertainty resulting from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas production rises, and other contributing factors. Less robust economic activity in our forecast could result in lower-than-forecast energy consumption. EIA forecast the spot price of Brent crude oil will average $105 per barrel (b) in 2022 and $95/b in 2023. U.S. crude oil production in forecast averages 11.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2022 and 12.7 million b/d in 2023, which would set a record for most U.S. crude oil production in a year. The current record is 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019. EIA estimates that 98.8 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in July 2022, an increase of 0.9 million b/d from July 2021. It expects that the global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 99.4 million b/d for all of 2022, which is a 2.1 million b/d increase from 2021. The global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by another 2.1 million b/d in 2023 to average 101.5 million b/d. The US retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $4.56 per gallon (gal) in July, and the average retail diesel price was $5.49/gal. We expect retail gasoline prices to average $4.29/gal in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22) and fall to an average of $3.78/gal in 4Q22. Retail diesel prices in our forecast average $5.02/gal in 3Q22 and $4.39/gal in 4Q22.Powered by Commodity Insights