Bajaj Auto Q4FY18E result expectation

Response to launches of refreshed versions of “Avenger” and “Pulsar” will be keenly watched.

May 17, 2018 01:05 IST India Infoline News Service

Bajaj Auto Limited (BJAUT) Expectations for Q4FY18E* (standalone numbers):
  • Revenue: Rs6,650cr; up 36% yoy led by 33% yoy volume growth and 3% yoy realization growth. Better realization on the back of greater proportion of high displacement motorcycles to the overall mix.
  • EBITDA: Rs1,297cr; up 43% yoy;
  • EBITDA margin: 19.5%; contraction of 344bps yoy; a better product mix (greater proportion of high displacement motorcycles) will be offset by input cost pressures and lower proportion of exports to the overall volume mix (43bps yoy lower).
  • PAT: Rs1,047cr; up 31% yoy
*Numbers based on consensus estimates

Q3FY18 performance highlights:
  • Revenue: Rs6,369cr; up 26% yoy led by 18% yoy volume growth and 7% yoy realization growth.
  • EBITDA: Rs1,231cr; up 18% yoy
  • EBITDA margin: 19.3%; contraction of 127bps yoy; due to higher input costs and operating expenses.
  • PAT: Rs952cr; up 3% yoy due to lower other income (29% yoy) and higher tax rate (306bps yoy). Other income was lower due to lower mark-to-market gains on investible surplus due to adverse movement in bond yields during the quarter. Tax rate was optically higher (at 31% vs. 28%) due to mark-to-market losses of Rs80cr in Q3FY18.
  • Export volumes have shown strong growth over past 3-4 quarters since crude dependent economies have seen a resurgence. Sustenance of export growth will be key to volume growth going ahead since exports contribute 41% to volumes (FY18).
  • Response to launches of refreshed versions of “Avenger” and “Pulsar” will be keenly watched.

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