shiva global agro industries ltd share price Management discussions


• ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Global Economy - Inflation peaking amid low growth

In recent times, the global economy has experienced three major events:

• Pandemic leading to contraction of global output

• Geo-political development in Eastern Europe resulting in a worldwide surge of inflation

• Action by Central banks across economies to curb inflation through interest rate hikes

All these have impacted the global economy in the last three years and will continue in the near future as well. In its January 2023 report, IMF forecasted that against an estimated global growth of 3.4% for 2022, growth will fall to 2.9% in 2023 followed by 3.1% in 2024 - three consecutive years of growth lower than the historical average of 3.8%.

The macroeconomic environment of the world was strongly influenced by the ongoing geopolitical crisis. This caused the prices of critical commodities like crude oil, natural gas, and fertilisers to surge during first half of the financial year. However, declining energy and food prices in early 2023, though still at elevated levels compared to pre-war, is improving the purchasing power of households and organizations.

Global headline inflation appears to have peaked in the third quarter of 2022. Prices of fuel and non-fuel commodities have declined, lowering headline inflation. As the central banks are hinting at future rate hikes to further stabilise inflation, the downside risks to the global economic outlook appear elevated. Global forex exchanges were in a highly volatile environment in 2022.

As a result of the synchronized monetary tightening measures adopted by the countries, global inflation is expected to substantially reduce from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% and 4.3% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.

IMF predicts average annual inflation of 4.6% and 8.1% for advanced and emerging market economies respectively in 2023.

• Domestic Economy -

India will continue as the fastest growing major economy

India growth story has seen substantial rebound from the pandemic era and continues to exhibit immense confidence. As per World Bank estimates, GDP growth is expected to be 6.9% during FY2023 supported by an uptick in private consumption and government capital expenditure.

RBI in its Monetary Policy announcement during February 2023 projected 7% GDP growth for FY 2022-23. These optimistic growth forecasts stem in part from the resilience of the Indian economy seen in the rebound of private consumption seamlessly replacing the export stimuli as the leading driver of growth.

During the year, calibrated rate hikes by RBI (290 basis points) and moderating global commodity prices towards latter half of the financial year have successfully tamed the inflation within tolerance levels. Indias exports witnessed continued momentum and during the year have grown by 14% to USD 770 billion. However, the trade balance has widened due to currency depreciation and higher energy and commodity prices. Overall, Indias external sector indicators have improved significantly with foreign exchange reserves rebounding from USD 524 billion levels in October 2022 to close to USD 600 billion now. The RBI also projected the economic growth to slow down to 6.4% in FY 2023-24, citing risks from geo-political tension and tightening global financial conditions.

To boost manufacturing competitiveness, Government of India has introduced various schemes like PM GatiShakti and National Logistics Policy. In the last three years, Production- Linked Incentives (PLI) schemes have given the required impetus to sectors like Auto, Aviation, Chemicals, Electronics, Food-Processing, Medical & Pharma, Renewable Energy, Telecom and Textiles. PM-Kisan and PM-Garib Kalyan Yojana have been endorsed by United Nations Development Programme for their positive impact in ensuring Indias food security goals are met.

As part of its sustainability commitments, India pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2070 and reduce emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030. The country is expected to see renewed focus on climate finance, energy security and green hydrogen. As a positive stride in this direction, the latest budget has allocated Rs. 19,000 crores to incentivize the private sector under the National Green Hydrogen Mission. With resilient domestic demand, capital investment, strengthening corporate and banking balance sheets, World Bank projects Indias GDP to grow at 6.3% in FY2024, with nearly 17% of the global growth to be contributed by it (IMF)

? INDUSTRY STRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENTS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE

Agriculture and allied activities remain an important component of the global economy in spite of the fact that its share of the global gross domestic product has remained around 4% and the share of the global workforce employed in agriculture has come down to 27% (866 million) in the last two decades. This trend is a reflection of the transformation of economies, especially in developing countries. Agri value chain partners have been playing an important role in this transformation across the world facilitating the intensification of agriculture leveraging irrigation, inputs such as seeds, fertiliser and pesticides supported by farm mechanisation and other agriculture practices.

The commodity flow across the global markets was impacted due to unprecedented disruptions in the global supply chain. This led to sharp rise in food prices, however the robust and well-integrated global agrifood system, global trade in food and agricultural products proved to be remarkably resilient to the disruptions. The Food Price Index, which tracks the movement of key agricultural commodities, recorded twelfth consecutive monthly decline since reaching its peak in March 2022, dropping by 21% over this period, with sharp falls across vegetable oil and cereals.

The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in its Agricultural Outlook 2022-2031 has projected global agricultural production to increase by 1.1% p.a., over next decade with the additional output to be predominantly produced in middle- and low-income countries. This would be driven by wider access to inputs as well as increased productivity-enhancing investments in technology, infrastructure, and training.

DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE

The Indian agri ecosystem is rich with 15 prominent Agro Climatic Zones, 20 Agro-Ecological Regions and 46 out of 60 soil types that exist on the earth. The success we achieved in the last 75 years is the testimony of the hard work of farmers, the proficiency of scientists and farmers friendly policies supported by the whole agri value chain partners. Currently, India is the leading producer of rice, wheat, cotton, pulses, jute, sugarcane, spices, plantation crops, fruits and vegetables apart from the achievements in poultry, dairy, marine and aqua sector.

Agriculture having an 18% share of GDP engaging 42% labour force plays a critical role in providing national food security and stimulus to the Indian rural economy. Growth of other economic sectors in the last two decades reduced the GDP share of agriculture from 28% and employment share from 60% to its current level. The vision of a technology-driven and knowledge-based economy, as we march towards the 100th year of Indias Independence, is expected to fuel the rapid transformation of agriculture.

During the year, favourable agro-climatic conditions, timely availability of agri-inputs and improved crop realizations led to higher kharif and rabi crop sowings. The country recorded annual rainfall equaling to 108% of its Long-Period Average during calendar year 2022 (IMD) with major part of the country experiencing above normal southwest monsoon. As per 2nd Advance Estimates for 2022-23, total food grain production in the country is estimated at record 323 million MT, higher by 2.5% over last year. The sector is projected to grow at 3.5% during 2022-23, with USD 50 billion worth of agri and livestock produce export.

Direct Income Support schemes from Centre and various state governments continued to improve liquidity at the farm level. National Agriculture Market (e-NAM), pan-India electronic trading platform, has supported farmers in providing much needed access to trade, better price discovery and thereby, obtaining good returns for their produce.

There has been an increased focus on application technologies like drone-based spraying, improving resource utilisation and driving farm efficiencies. In the Union Budget 2023-24, an Agriculture Accelerator Fund has been set up which aims at building a start-up ecosystem to boost entrepreneurship among the rural farming community.

India as the nation accounts for nearly 20% of the global millet production. Considering Indias proposal, the United Nations has declared 2023 as the International Year of Millets, emphasizing the potential role of millets in strengthening small farmers, mitigating food security challenges and attaining sustainable development goals

FERTILISER BUSINESS Global Fertiliser Scenario:

In the Post Covid-19 Pandemic period, the early recovery of Fertiliser industry was impacted by the geopolitical uncertainty in the Baltic region. Sudden export sanctions on Russia and Belarus, which together account for 41% of globally traded potash and 25% of nitrogenous fertilisers, resulted in significant volatility in global markets. Further, natural gas and ammonia markets contributed to record high raw material costs for processed phosphate producers. The sector, which was experiencing lower channel inventory, witnessed export restrictions from China, exacerbating already reduced global availability. The reduced global supplies due to protectionist measures and market disruptions and higher global demand in competing markets led to increase in fertiliser prices, peaking to a record level in mid-2022.

However, in the second half of 2022, fertiliser prices started to decline. Market loosening factors, record output in Russia exceeding initial expectation, shift in trade flows and delayed and reduced buying interest for fertiliser application due to affordability, led to softening of key fertiliser products. With falling fertiliser prices and easing energy situation in Europe due to healthy stocking and less than expected winter, affordability has been continuously improving.

Fertiliser demand is expected to improve in FY-2024 to cover up for the application shortfall in the previous year. Supply is set to improve with overall increase in manufacturing capabilities in major producing hubs along with possible easing of export restrictions in China and improving potash supplies.

International Fertilizer Association has anticipated a 3% recovery in global fertiliser consumption is in 2023 to 194 million MT of nutrients (+5.9 million MT), returning the consumption levels on par with 2019.

Indian Fertiliser Scenario :

Being the critical part of the agricultural value chain, fertilisers have played a key role in ensuring the improvement

in farm output in India. India is the second largest consumer of fertiliser globally after China, servicing over 190 million hectares of gross cropped area and reaching 140 million farmlands and, it is the third largest producer and meets 7075% of its nutrient requirements domestically.

The government of Indias initiative Atma Nirbhar Bharat has a renewed focus towards building domestic capacities and backward integration capabilities in fertiliser sector. In Phosphatics (DAP and NPKs), the focus is towards strengthening the backward supply linkages for key raw material and finished products like DAP through establishing partnerships and long-term contracts with resource rich nations.

There has been an increased thrust on reviving the Single Super Phosphate (SSP) industry, the cheapest source of Phosphate providing multiple nutrients like Sulphur and Calcium. In the current elevated commodity cycle, SSP has emerged as a good substitute especially for oilseeds and pulses for semi-arid & rain-fed regions.

To ensure the availability of fertilisers at affordable prices to the farmer community in India, the Government stepped up its support in the form of higher subsidies under the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme. This has helped the farming community to carry out the agricultural activities without any disruption by absorbing the price shocks. In FY 2023, against the budgetary allocation of INR 1.05 lakh crore for Urea and NPK fertilisers, Government released INR 2.5 lakh crores funds towards the fertiliser subsidy. This ensured stable consumption of fertilisers at the farm gate level.

? BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

Business Performance

Being the one of the major manufacturer and supplier of Single Super Phosphate (SSP) & Mix Fertilisers (N.P.K.) in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra, the company has achieved the total production volume of 1,13,168 MT of Single Super Phosphate, NPK Mix & other fertilizers combined together. The company has an installed capacity of close to 1,20,000 MT for SSP and 72,000 MT for NPK Mix Fertilisers. Manufacturing units located at MIDC, Nanded and Dhakni, Nanded have the flexibility to produce multiple grades. The Company enjoys a considerable market presence in the south-central parts of Maharashtra, Vidharba and adjacent parts of Telangana.

During the financial year 2023, the primary sales volume of SSP was recorded at 81,370 MT and that of NPK Mix fertilizers was recorded at 21,927 MT. The year saw introduction of two new products namely, P.D.M. Granules (Potash Derived from Molasses) and the secondary fertiliser Ca:M:S-Virat i.e. Granules having Calcium, Magnesium and Sulphur as primary nutrients. Though the scarcity of raw materials resulted in lower volumes of these fertilisers, the company is focused to enhance these figures in the coming years.

On the sourcing side, the company operated with desired agility to ensure availability of key raw materials in a disrupted supply chain scenario. In addition to diversifying its sources, it has ensured timely availability of inputs and raw materials. The company has placed optimal buying strategy to overcome prevailing pricing pressures in the market. Contracts with key suppliers ensured that raw material availability challenges were mitigated.

The company has also improved its infrastructure facilities across all its plants along with Quality Control labs to ensure quality products are being supplied to the farming community. During the year, the company has also worked on process & product improvement. The fertilizer units operated at optimum capacity and have also ensured safe operations with improved productivity. The plants continued to strengthen their operational efficiencies and operated flexibly using multiple sources of essential raw materials like rock phosphate and acid.

As a part of infrastructure enhancements, the storage capacity of the Dhakni plant was enhanced further by establishing new storage facility. New storage tank for acid was also set up. These additions will aid in smooth functioning of business during the peak seasons.

On the marketing side, the company continued its focus on brand building. The Company has a strong farmer connection and strives for a customer-centric approach by providing them with necessary advisory services for enhancing farm prosperity. Farm extension activities including soil testing at farm, product and crop awareness programs at fields, dealers conferences, farmer meetings, etc. have helped the business to achieve a strong consumption-based market share. The companys SSP grades viz. SSP fortified with Zinc and SSP fortified with Zinc plus Boron, continue to dominate the total sales volume. It is estimated that, the contribution from these SSP grades will continue to grow in the coming days too.

Financial performance:

The standalone revenue of the Company stood at Rs.17,955.77 Lacs as against Rs.20,497.62 Lacs in the preceding financial year. The profit before Interest, Depreciation and Tax was Rs.1,226.22 Lacs as compared to Rs.2,059.82 Lacs in the previous financial year and the profit before tax for the year stood at Rs.679.92 Lacs as against Rs.1,210.76 Lacs in the previous financial year. During the financial year 2022-23, Profit after tax stood at Rs.503.34 Lacs as against Rs.1,210.76 Lacs in previous financial year.

As far as consolidated financial results are concerned, the consolidated revenue from Operations were recorded at Rs.54,020.49 Lacs as against Rs.63,831.58 Lacs in previous financial year. The Net Profit Before Tax was Rs.2,118.77 Lacs for the year under review as against the previous years consolidated Net Profit Before Tax of Rs.3,593.35 Lacs. The

Profit after Tax was Rs.570.16 Lacs as against Rs.1954.22 Lacs in the previous year.

Key Financial Ratios:

Key Financial Ratios analyses and its elements are given under note no. 45 to the Accounts of Standalone Financial Statements

? INTERNAL CONTROL SYSTEMS AND THEIR ADEQUACY:

The Company has adequate internal controls commensurate with the nature of its Business and size of its operations to effectively provide for the safety of its assets, reliability of financial transactions with adequate checks and balances, adherence to applicable statutes, accounting policies, approval procedures, and to ensure optimum use of available resources.

The company has laid down well defined scope of internal controls and audit checks. To maintain the effectiveness of the Internal control systems, they are reviewed regularly and updated on continuous basis.

The Company also has its own internal audit function, supplemented by external firms to monitor and assess the adequacy and effectiveness of the Internal Controls and System across all key processes covering various locations. Deviations are reviewed periodically, and due compliance is ensured. Summary of Significant Audit Observations along with recommendations and their implementations are reviewed by the Audit Committee, and concerns, if any, are reported to the Board.

? OPPORTUNITIES, STRENGTHS & THREATS Opportunities

1. India is emerging as a low-cost manufacturing destination with all the government measures and private investments. This is applicable to Fertiliser industry wherein Shiva has established itself and is currently focusing on growth in market share. Expanded capacities could serve as a major sourcing avenue for global players and thereby tap the exports potential.

2. Agriculture is the critical sector to the country. As the Indian economy grows, there are significant opportunities for company in the agriculture sector.

3. Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative in the fertiliser industry can support capacity expansion.

4. Acceleration of Agri technologies to improve crop yield, diagnostics and application capabilities.

5. Growing area under micro irrigation and demand for nutrient based fertilisers in India.

6. PM Program for Restoration, Awareness, Nourishment and Amelioration of Mother Earth (PM PRANAM) aims to promote usage of alternative fertilisers through incentivization of States and Union Territories. Shiva, with its good presence in Organic fertilisers segment, is capable of tapping this potential.

7. Central and State Governments income support schemes for farmers ensure disposable income in the hands of farmers which can support their agri-inputs purchase.

8. Governments continued support in promoting farm mechanisation through Custom Hiring Centres can further improve adoption and enhance farm productivity

9. Improved awareness about soil health and sustainable practices to promote balanced nutrient usage, including Bio-pesticides and organic fertiliser usage

10. Governments initiatives to improve agricultural productivity by improving soil nutrient balance, encouraging NPK sector.

Strengths

1. The strong presence of the company in farmer centric area of the Maharashtra, gives the company an advantage over the rivals.

2. The company has a strong distribution and dealer network through which the products reach the farmers.

3. Shiva has strong captive manufacturing infrastructure of Single super Phosphate and Mix fertilisers production.

4. Strong systems and process backed with I T systems/tools

5. Strong management and experienced team with indepth industry knowledge.

6. Strong fundamentals backed by robust knowledge and rich extensive experience in manufacturing and financial prudence.

7. Efficient integrated manufacturing operations in fertiliser enabling supply security and low-cost production.

8. Financially sound Balance Sheet with a surplus reserve.

9. Strong credit rating: BWR BBB-/Stable Reaffirmation for long term and BWR A3 Reaffirmation for short term Tenure by Brickwork Ratings.

10. Experienced marketing division with extensive reach.

Threats, Risks and Concerns:

1. Geo-political development in Eastern Europe resulting in a worldwide surge of inflation and disruption in supply chain.

2. Aggressive interest hike by central bank to curb rising inflation.

3. Dependence on imported raw materials like Phosphatic Rock.

4. Working capital intensive business with dependence on Government subsidy.

5. Trapped working capital due to inverted rate of duty structure under GST Laws leading to higher finance cost.

6. Abrupt regulatory interventions/policy change impacting our business.

7. Volatility in forex i.e. deprecating Rupee value against US Dollar.

8. Price fluctuation in Raw materials especially in Acid & Rock.

9. Potential threat of new entrants which could adversely impact our market share

? RISK MANAGEMENT:

Shiva has well-established Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework that enabled it to assess the risks and impacts of the various events on its business and stakeholders and respond appropriately, all the while ensuring that it continues to create sustainable value.

The company has put in place a robust Risk Management Policy framework to traverse the dynamic business environment comprising regulatory changes, technological disruptions and advancements and financial markets. Our sustainable model is built with an objective to absorb market vitality and other uncertainties.

ERM Framework & Policy Overview: The Enterprise Risk Management framework includes Risk Management Policy dealing with identification, analysis, evaluation & treatment of risks at Entity Level, Business Level and Operational level. Company has adopted the best risk management best practices & standards.

The robust governance structure has also helped in the integration of the Enterprise Risk Management process with the Companys strategy and planning processes where emerging risks are used as inputs in the strategy and planning process.

The effectiveness of existing controls, implementation of risk mitigation plans for the key risks and new or emerging risks associated with the businesses of the Company are periodically reviewed by the board members. The Board also regularly discusses the significant business risks identified by the management and the mitigation process being taken up. The identified key risks at the Entity Level are evaluated & prioritized based on quantitative and qualitative aspects of impact & likelihood.

Illustrated below are the categorised risks associated with the Companys businesses:

Environmental Risk

Due to the adverse impact of its effluents on the eco-system, the Company may face litigation and penalty.

Economic Risk

Due to downturn or adverse political situations which may negatively impact the Companys organisational objectives. Regulatory Risk

Due to inadequate compliance to regulations, contractual obligations, any other statutory violations and amendments thereto, which may lead to litigations and loss of reputation. Operational Risk

Inherent to business operations including manufacturing and distribution operations, monsoon failures, tangible or intangible property and any other business activity disruptions.

Financial Risk

Due to major fluctuations in the currency market, rise in

interest rates and possible non recovery of debts, which could impact the organization.

HR & Legal Risk

Due to attrition of any Key Managerial Person or disruption of operations due to any other human resources issue. Risk due to non-compliances of laws and regulations applicable. IT/Cyber security Risk

Cyber-attacks could lead to disruption in operations. These are addressed through adequate back-up mechanisms and Disaster recovery process. A dedicated team is set up to constantly keep upgrading the IT Assets and implement the latest technologies to keep the environment safe and secure.

Pandemic Risk

Pandemic like Coronavirus, would be having a significant impact across sectors, affecting the way business is being carried out and to be carried out in the future.

The assets of the Company, including its plant and machinery, inventory are adequately insured against loss or destruction by fire and allied perils. The Company also has appropriate insurance coverage.

The evaluation of risk is based on managements perception. Risk Management being continues process, the key risks associated with the Companys business, its likely impact are continuously analysed and the appropriate mitigation mechanism are implemented by top Management throughout the organization.

? HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

The organization constantly invests in the capability development of its talent and the process of learning & development enables its employees in realizing their true potential. As a key contributor to the successful attainment of organizational goals, holistic development and well-being of employees remain at the forefront of its business approach.

Human Resource policies are made contextual and contemporary from time to time. The Human Resource Development in the organization emphasis on following practices:

1. Talent Development

2. Leadership Development Programs.

3. Driving Employee Engagement.

4. Investment in Digital Transformation.

5. Employee Value Proposition.

6. Employee Retention.

7. Overall Employee Wellness.

The Company nurtures talent and leadership through various capability management programmes to improve technical and behavioral skills and meet business-specific requirements. The Learning and Development initiatives cater to a wide variety of employee profiles addressing Sales and Marketing, Manufacturing, Operations and Leadership areas.

Over the years, your Company has been able to create positive experiences for the employees through varied structured initiatives to enable higher engagement levels. The Company remained focused on delivering an employee experience wherein they felt strongly connected to the brand, the Business and the overarching guiding principles of the Company.

During the year, the Company rolled out various online employee engagement initiatives, including Family connect, Wellness sessions, festival celebrations, etc. The leadership team at the company continues to review the key engagement agendas for the organisation through specific action plans.

During the year, the industrial relations continued to remain cordial across all the plants of the company. For plant operative employees, Performance Linked Incentive schemes (PLI) were factored with Key Parameters such as Production, Operational Efficiency, Quality, Safety, Behavioral/TQM, Efficiency and Periodicity.

Workers education and training as per unit requirements have been deployed across Company. Annual Communications Meetings and other structured social gatherings as part of employee engagement and work-life balance initiatives across the company have received good support from all employees.

Prevention of Sexual Harassment at Workplace:

Pursuant to Section 22 of the Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, 2013 read with Rules made thereunder, the internal committee constituted under the said act has confirmed that no complaint / case has been filed / pending with the Company during the year.

The Company has complied with the provisions relating to the constitution of Internal Complaints Committee under the Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, 2013. Harassment cases are dealt with as per the Companys zero-tolerance policy. During the year 2022-23, no case was reported on sexual harassment.

? ENVIRONMENT & SUSTAINABILITY

As a responsible Company, business operations are closely integrated to drive sustainability across its value chain. The Company continues to make steady progress toward its Environmental, Social and Governance goals.

The Company is working towards seffing its long-term sustainability goals. The Company is evaluating its carbon emissions, water footprint, bio-diversity protection, natural resource management, energy management and adopting strategies to address the global environmental issues in line with business requirements.

The Company has consistently implemented various new

initiatives and innovations to reduce the emissions from its value chain. One of such initiative is where the company is producing and captively using Briquette as fuel instead to non-renewable fuels like coal. Manufactured from agriwaste, it results in lower carbon emission, acts as substitute to coal and is cost effective. As such, the company will continue to adapt methods and strategies to address issue of global warming from its operations. The Company has carried out plantation on at Factory premises and in nearby areas.

The company is also committed to work towards the systems that enable farmers to improve productivity and thereby address the issues like food security and world hunger. The business solutions of the company are closely integrated to drive sustainability across the farming value chain by balancing nutrient needs, improving crop yields and adopting technology to maximize resource use efficiency and drive farm profitability.

? BUSINESS OUTLOOK

As India march towards the 100th Independence Day, vision of technology-driven and knowledge-based economy is expected to fuel rapid transformation of agriculture. Cotton, Soybean, Maize and Sugarcane are emerging as major export opportunities and also important input to the industries to support Indias economic prosperity. India needs to sustain the production of food grains, fruits and vegetables which can also be leveraged for exports.

Self-reliance in highly import-dependent oil seeds and pulses will be critical as we move forward. Fast-emerging climate change and sustainability challenges are expected to make agriculture more vulnerable and may cause severe hardship to the fragmented farmer base of India and the rural economy.

The manner fertilizer industry continues to experience technological advancements - it is imperative for the company to actively pursue developments in upcoming Technology, to not just be aware of the advancement happening within the industry, but also to build a technology absorption platform to fuel its growth and innovation agenda. A renewed focus on advancements in technology and business models has been necessitated at the fringe intersections of various industries.

Technology advancements, development of agriinfrastructure, the Governments focus on agriculture and reform mind set are likely to positively impact the agriculture sector.

As government is keen to support this emerging manufacturing opportunity with appropriate policy support, the Company is continuously enhancing its capacities and upgradation of its key operations. We remain confident of continuing our growth trajectory on the back of a robust economic outlook and governments milestone industry reforms.