Q4FY23 Preview: Cipla: Revenue seen at Rs. 55,586 million, PAT at Rs. 6,166 million

10 May 2023 , 10:27 AM

Result date: 12^th May, 2023

Recommendation: Add

Target price: Rs. 950

 

Analysts at IIFL Capital Services expect Cipla’s revenue to grow 5.7% over the year-ago quarter and decline 4.3% sequentially. They expect company’s US revenue to grow 20% over the year-ago quarter and dip 1% sequentially. gRevlimid, Albuterol & Lenotirade could drive growth of US business. Revlimid sales could come in at $25 million in Q4 versus $19 million in Q3. They expect the company’s India revenue to inch up 1.1% over the year-ago quarter and fall 14% sequentially. March quarter is a seasonally weak quarter for India business. This, along with a high base of last year (which had benefit of COVID portfolio) could lead to the mid-single digit growth in revenue as compared to the year-ago quarter.

Seasonally weak performance of India formulations business could impact EBITDA margin during the quarter. EBITDA margin is estimated at 19.0%, up 98 basis points over the year-ago quarter and down 519 basis points.

Similarly, Profit After Tax (PAT) could decline both sequentially as well as over the year-ago quarter.

	March 2023 estimates	YoY change	QoQ change
Revenue (Rs. mn)	55,586	5.7%	(4.3)%
EBITDA (Rs. mn)	10,582	11.4%	(24.8)%
EBITDA margin (%)	19.0%	98 bps	(519) bps
Profit After Tax (Rs. mn)	6,166	(0.5)%	(29.6)%

Source: IIFL Research