Chemicals: Early signs of recovery?

19 Apr 2024 , 11:40 AM

The provisional data released by Ministry of Commerce & Industry, GoI shows a substantial 40% YoY jump in exports of Organic & Inorganic Chemicals in March 2024 with exports reaching their highest level at $3.8bn. Analysis of Trade data for the companies under analysts of IIFL Capital Services tracking universe also indicates improvement during Mar’24. Overall exports rose by 11% MoM, driven by a 22% MoM increase in exports of speciality chemicals. However, exports of refrigerants and agrochemicals remained under pressure, declining by 9% and 11% respectively. On the other hand, imports of bulk chemicals have marginally eased, with volumes declining by 4% QoQ. Despite this, pricing remains a challenge as there was no meaningful uptick during Mar’24.

Sequential improvement in exports seen:

Overall exports rose by 11% MoM, driven by a 22% MoM increase in exports of speciality chemicals. However, exports of refrigerants and agrochemicals remained under pressure, declining by 9% and 11% respectively. The spike in speciality chemicals exports could be due to deferment of orders to Q4 and seasonality. Specialty chemicals exports in Mar’24 surpassed the trailing 12-month average.

Respite from dumping, but realizations remain low:

Imports of bulk chemicals have marginally eased, with volumes declining by 4% QoQ. Despite this, pricing remains challenging as there was no meaningful uptick during Mar’24. Bromine imports fell 45% QoQ with realisations dropping ~25% QoQ. Imports also moderated for Soda ash and Phenol; however, they remained elevated for PVC.

Imports of fertilisers have also decreased:

Imports of DAP and NPKs declined by 61% and 27% YoY respectively during Q4’24. DAP imports from Russia and China were absent, while almost all NPKs volumes were imported from Russia during Q4. DAP prices rose by 3% QoQ, while phosphatic fertilizers were down 30% YoY and 8% QoQ.