Zhipu & MiniMax Shares Surge on Hang Seng Tech Index Inclusion Hopes; Stock Connect Could Bring HK$100 Billion Inflows

22 May 2026 , 02:57 PM

Chinese AI companies Zhipu AI and MiniMax witnessed a massive rally on Friday after reports suggested both firms are strong contenders for inclusion in the prestigious Hang Seng Tech Index during the latest quarterly review.

Investor enthusiasm around the potential index inclusion pushed Zhipu shares up by nearly 30% intraday, while MiniMax surged between 14% and 20% during the trading session. The sharp rally further cemented the two AI firms as some of the best-performing Hong Kong IPOs of 2026.

Zhipu & MiniMax Become Top-Performing Hong Kong IPOs

Both Zhipu and MiniMax have delivered exceptional returns since listing in Hong Kong earlier this year. Since their January 2026 IPOs, both stocks have reportedly gained over 300%, fueled by growing investor appetite for artificial intelligence and China’s rapidly expanding AI ecosystem.

Analysts believe the explosive rise in their market capitalization has pushed both companies close to the eligibility threshold for inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index as well as the broader Hang Seng Composite Index.

Market experts noted that inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index could significantly improve liquidity, institutional ownership, and global investor visibility for both companies.

Stock Connect Eligibility Could Unlock Massive Capital Inflows

One of the biggest catalysts behind the recent rally is the possibility of entry into the Stock Connect program, which allows mainland Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong-listed stocks directly.

According to analysts:

• Zhipu may become eligible for Stock Connect as early as June 8 through the fast-track inclusion mechanism.
• MiniMax, however, may face a delay due to its weighted voting rights (WVR) structure and is unlikely to qualify before August.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates suggest the potential inflows could be enormous:

• Zhipu may attract between HK$51 billion and HK$92 billion in southbound capital inflows.
• MiniMax could draw nearly HK$47 billion.
• Combined, the two AI firms could account for close to 9% weighting in the Hang Seng Tech Index.

Analysts also highlighted that mainland Chinese investors often hold 11%-20% stakes in major Hong Kong-listed technology firms through Stock Connect, indicating the possibility of sustained long-term demand.

ETF & Passive Fund Buying Could Further Support AI Stocks

Apart from Stock Connect flows, passive fund inflows are also expected to become a major tailwind for both stocks.

Reports suggest that ETFs and passive funds tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index currently represent nearly USD 4 billion in buying capacity. If Zhipu and MiniMax are officially included in the index, passive funds would likely be forced to purchase shares to match benchmark allocations.

With a potential combined index weighting approaching 9%, analysts believe passive institutional buying could provide additional near-term support for both stocks.

This could also help offset some of the selling pressure expected from upcoming lock-up expirations.

July Lock-Up Expiry Emerges as Key Risk

Despite the bullish momentum, analysts have warned that the upcoming lock-up expiry period could create significant volatility for both companies.

MiniMax is expected to face the larger challenge, with nearly 65% of its total shares becoming tradable in July. The sudden increase in free float could lead to elevated selling pressure and higher market volatility.

Zhipu faces a relatively smaller near-term unlock event, with around 6% of shares scheduled for release in July. However, another major unlock involving nearly 40% of shares is expected in January next year.

Market observers cautioned that the current premium valuations of both companies are heavily influenced by limited free-float availability. Once more shares enter the market, investor sentiment could shift rapidly.

Financial Fundamentals Remain Weak Despite AI Optimism

Although investor excitement around AI continues to fuel stock price momentum, analysts pointed out that the financial fundamentals of both firms remain relatively weak.

Zhipu reported:

• Revenue of RMB 191 million during the first half of 2025
• R&D expenses of RMB 15.94 billion

MiniMax reported:

• Revenue of USD 53.44 million during the first nine months of 2025
• R&D expenses of USD 180 million

Both companies continue to prioritize aggressive expansion and AI model development, resulting in heavy cash burn and limited profitability.

Analysts believe that over time, market focus may gradually shift away from liquidity-driven momentum toward core business fundamentals such as:

• Revenue growth
• Commercial monetization
• AI adoption scalability
• Margin improvement
• Reduction in losses

 

While the potential addition to the Hang Seng Tech Index and Stock Connect eligibility could unlock billions in institutional and retail inflows, investors are also closely monitoring risks tied to valuation, profitability, and upcoming lock-up expirations.

For now, both AI companies remain at the center of Hong Kong’s booming artificial intelligence investment theme, but their long-term performance may ultimately depend on their ability to convert AI hype into sustainable financial growth.