IMF projects India's consumer prices at 5.6% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022. While the current account balance of the country is estimated at (-)1% in 2021 and (-)1.4% in 2022.
In the latest World Economic Outlook report, IMF said that outside of China and India, emerging and developing Asia is downgraded slightly as the pandemic has picked up. Growth forecasts in other regions have been revised up slightly for 2021.
Gita Gopinath, the Chief Economist of IMF, on the latest outlook on a global level, said that "The global recovery continues but momentum has weakened, hobbled by the pandemic. Fueled by the highly transmissible Delta variant, the recorded global COVID-19 death toll has risen close to 5 million and health risks abound, holding back a full return to normalcy. Pandemic outbreaks in critical links of global supply chains have resulted in longer than expected supply disruptions, feeding inflation in many countries. Overall, risks to economic prospects have increased and policy trade-offs have become more complex."
She said, "The dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries remains a major concern."
Gopinath stated that compared to our July forecast, the global growth projection for 2021 has been revised down marginally to 5.9 per cent and is unchanged for 2022 at 4.9 per cent. However, this modest headline revision masks large downgrades for some countries. The outlook for the low-income developing country group has darkened considerably due to worsening pandemic dynamics. The downgrade also reflects more difficult near-term prospects for the advanced economy group, in part due to supply disruptions.
"Partially offsetting these changes, projections for some commodity exporters have been upgraded on the back of rising commodity prices. Pandemic-related disruptions to contact-intensive sectors have caused the labour market recovery to significantly lag the output recovery in most countries," Gopinath said.