India's Q4 GDP at 4.6%; MFG continues to disappoint

India Infoline News Service | Mumbai |

Aggregate bank deposits and bank credits reported growth of 14.6% and 14.3% respectively during 2013-14

India's GDP (gross domestic product) stood at 4.7% in the financial year ended 2014.
The country's Q4 GDP growth stood at 4.6% as against the estimates of 4.7%.
The manufacturing sector continues to disappoint. Manufacturing growth was down at 1.4% as compared to the negative growth of 1.9% QoQ. The fourth quarter construction sector reported growth of 0.7% as against the estimates of 0.6% on QoQ.
Trade & hotels reported growth at 3.9% in Q4 as against 4.3% QoQ. Mining growth was down at 0.4% in Q4 as against a negative growth of 1.6%.
The electricity and gas recorded growth of 7.2% in Q4 as compared to 5% QoQ. During the same period, financial services sector reported growth of 12.4% vs 12.5% QoQ.
Community and social growth services growth was at 3.3% vs 7% QoQ.
 

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of national income for the financial year 2013-14 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2013-14, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.

 

The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

 

GDP growth rates for 2013-14 and Q1,Q2,Q3 and Q4 of 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given below:

 

  Constant prices Current prices
  At Factor cost Market price At Factor cost Market price
Annual 2013-14 4.7 5.0 11.5 12.3
Q1 2013-14(April-June) 4.7 4.2 10.6 10.3
Q2 2013-14(July-Sep) 5.2 5.2 12.7 13.6
Q3 2013-14(Oct-Dec) 4.6 4.4 12.8 13.0
Q4 2013-14 (Jan-Mar) 4.6 6.1 10.2 12.2
 

Estimates including growth rates for Q1,Q2 and Q3 released earlier have been revised according to the revision policy of this Ministry.

 

I PROVISIONAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2013-14

 

The advance estimates of national income for the year 2013-14 were released on 7th February, 2014. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like, railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking, insurance and government expenditure.

 

The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

 

(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices

 

Gross Domestic Product

GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2013-14 is now estimated at Rs. 57.42 lakh crore (as against  `57.49 lakh crore estimated earlier on 7th February, 2014), showing a growth rate of 4.7 percent (as against 4.9 percent estimated earlier) over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2012-13 of Rs. 54.82 lakh crore, released on 31th January 2014. 

 

In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture showed a slight upward revision as compared to their second advance estimates in the production of rice (106.29 million Tonnes from 106.19 million Tonnes), wheat (95.85 million Tonnes from 95.60 million Tonnes) and sugarcane (348.38 million Tonnes from 345.92 million Tonnes) for the year 2013-14. Due to this revision in the production, ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector in 2013-14 has shown a growth rate of 4.7 percent, as against the growth rate of 4.6 percent in the Advance Estimates.

 

In the case of ‘mining and quarrying’, the Index of Industrial Production of Mining registered a decline of 0.8 percent during 2013-14, as against the decline of 2.2 percent during April-November, 2013, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Production of coal and crude oil registered growth rates of 0.8 percent and (-) 0.2 percent in 2013-14 as compared to growth rates of 1.2 percent and (-) 0.6 percent during April to December, 2013. The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is now estimated at (-) 1.4 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of (-)1.9 percent.

 

Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of (-) 0.8 percent during 2013-14, as against the projected growth rate of (-)0.3 percent for April- March 2013-14 used for compiling the Advance Estimates. Due to this, the growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is now estimated at (-) 0.7 percent, as against the Advance Estimate growth of (-) 0.2 percent.

 

The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth of 3.0 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively in 2013-14 as against 3.7 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively during April-December 2013. Consequently, the growth of the sector is revised to 1.6 percent as against 1.7 percent in the Advance Estimates.

 

The key indicators of banking, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth of 14.6 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively during 2013-14 over the corresponding period in 2012-13, as compared to growth of 15.9 percent and 14.5 percent as on December 2013. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by the civil aviation and passengers handled by the civil aviation registered growth rates of  (-) 20.2 per cent, 1.8 percent, 2.6 per cent and  6.6 per cent  respectively during April-March of 2013-14. Indicators of Railways sector, namely, Net Tonne Kilometers and Passenger Kilometers have shown growth of 1.6 and (-) 1.9 percent respectively during 2013-14 . The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 3.0 percent in 2013-14 as against 3.5 percent in the advance estimate released in February, 2014.

 

The sector 'community, social and personal services' has shown a growth rate of 5.6 per cent in the provisional  estimates, as against the growth rate of  7.4 per cent in the advance estimates, mainly due to  fall in total expenditure of Central Government than anticipated (during April-December 2013). The total expenditure of Central Government showed a rise of 17.4 per cent which was extrapolated in the advance estimates, whereas the  Revised Estimates (RE)  2013-14  of Central Government  expenditure showed a rise of only 12.8 per cent.

 

Gross National Income

The Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost at 2004-05 prices is now estimated at Rs. 56.74 lakh crore (as compared to Rs. 56.81 lakh crore estimated on 7th February 2014), during 2013-14, as against the previous year’s First Revised Estimate of Rs. 54.17 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 4.7 percent during 2013-14, in comparison to the growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2012-13.

 

Per Capita Net National Income

The per capita net national income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is estimated to have attained a level of Rs. 39,904 (as against Rs. 39,961 estimated on 7th February, 2014), as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13 of Rs. 38,856. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.7 percent during 2013-14 as against 2.1 percent during 2012-13.

 

(b) Estimates at current prices

 

Gross Domestic Product

GDP at factor cost at current prices in the year 2013-14 is estimated at `104.73 lakh crore, showing a growth rate of 11.5 percent over the First Revised Estimates of GDP for the year 2012-13 of Rs. 93.89 lakh crore, released on 31th January 2014.

 

Gross National Income

The GNI at factor cost at current prices is now estimated at Rs. 103.45 lakh crore during 2013-14, as compared to `92.72 lakh crore during 2012-13, showing a rise of 11.6 percent.

 

Per Capita Net National Income

The per capita income at current prices during 2013-14 is estimated to have attained a level of  Rs. 74,380 as compared to the First Revised Estimates for the year 2012-13 of Rs.  67,839 showing a rise of 9.6 percent.

 

II  ESTIMATES OF GDP AT MARKET PRICES, 2013-14


GDP at current market price is estimated at Rs. 113.55 lakh crore in the year 2013-14 (Rs. 113.20 lakh crore in advance estimates)  as against Rs. 101.13 lakh crore in the year 2012-13 showing an increase of 12.3 per cent. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GDP at market price is estimated at Rs. 61.96 lakh crore in the year 2013-14 (Rs. 61.74 lakh crore in the advance estimates)  as against Rs.  59.0 lakh crore in 2012-13 showing an increase of 5.0 percent over the previous year. The estimates of GDP at market prices are derived at by adding net indirect taxes( indirect taxes – subsidies) to GDP at factor cost. The indirect taxes and subsidies have been compiled using  the  Revised Estimates  of  Central Government. Growth in major subsidies for RE 2013 -14 over 2012-13 is -0.1 percent. Growth in  indirect tax  revenue of the Central Government including Customs, excise and service tax is  5.6 per cent, 2.1 percent and 24.5 percent respectively for  RE 2013-14 over 2012-13.


III ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP, 2013-14


Along with the Provisional Estimates of GDP by economic activity, the CSO is also releasing the estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2004-05) prices. These estimates have been compiled using the data on indicators available from the same sources as those used for compiling GDP estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and monthly expenditure of Central Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 64.85 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs. 57.72 lakh crore in 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 37.20 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs. 35.48 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 57.1 percent and 60.0 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.1 percent and 60.1 percent, respectively in 2012-13.

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

 

Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 13.41 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs. 11.89 lakh crore in 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 6.87 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs. 6.62 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 11.8 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 11.8 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively in 2012-13.

 

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 32.11 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against `30.72 lakh crore in 2012-13. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 20.00 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against `20.02 lakh crore in 2012-13. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 28.3 percent and 32.3 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.4 percent and 33.9 percent, respectively in 2012-13. The rates of Change in Stocks and Valuables at current prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 1.6 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively.

 

The discrepancies at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2013-14 are estimated at 3.2 percent and (-)1.2 percent, respectively of the GDP at market prices, as against the corresponding rate of 3.2 percent and (-)1.0 percent respectively in 2012-13.

 

Estimates of gross/net national income and per capita income, along with GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the years 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 6.

 

IV QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q4 (JANUARY-MARCH), 2013-14

 

(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices

The four quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in Q4 of 2013-14 is estimated at Rs. 15.38 lakh crore, as against Rs.  14.71 lakh  crore in Q4 of 2012-13, showing a growth rate of 4.6 percent.

Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (6.3 percent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (-0.4 percent), ‘manufacturing’ (-1.4 percent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ (7.2 percent) ‘construction’ (0.7 percent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (3.9 percent), 'financing, insurance, real estate and business services' (12.4 percent), and 'community, social and personal services' (3.3 percent).

 

According to the latest estimates available on the IIP, the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 1.1 percent, (-)1.6 percent and 7.6 percent respectively, in Q4 of 2013-14, as compared to the growth rates of (-) 3.8 percent, 3.1 percent and 2.3 percent respectively in these sectors in Q4, 2012-13.


The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown decline in growth rates of 1.2 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2013-14, as against the growth rates of (-)1.2 percent and (-)2.8 percent, in the corresponding period of previous year.  In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of  (-)24.1 percent and 1.4  percent  respectively in Q4 of 2013-14. The Trade, hotels and transport sector have registered a growth of 3.9 percent in 2013-14 as against 4.8 percent in Q4 of 2012-13.

 

The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2004-05) market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 are estimated at Rs. 9.78 lakh  crore and Rs. 5.36 lakh  crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 were 57.0 percent and 31.2 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.9 percent and 33.4 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2012-13.

 

(b) Estimates at current prices

 

GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q4 of 2013-14 is estimated at Rs. 28.01 lakh crore, as against Rs. 25.42 lakh crore in Q4 of 2012-13, showing a growth of 10.2 percent.

 

The PFCE and GFCF at current market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 are estimated at Rs. 17.22 lakh  crore and Rs. 8.68 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP at market prices in Q4 of 2013-14 are estimated at 54.7 percent and 27.6 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 53.6 percent and 30.3 percent, respectively in Q4 of 2012-13.

 

Estimates of GDP at factor cost by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for the four quarters of 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 at constant (2004-05) and current prices, are given in Statements 7 to 10.


STATEMENT 1: Provisional Estimates of National Income and Expenditures on GDP, 2013-14

(At 2004-05 prices)
Item 2011-12 (2nd RE) 2012-13 (1st RE) 2013-14 (PE)
A. ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL  
5201163
 
5416659
 
5673857
1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
1.1 Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost


(4.1) (4.7)
1.2 Net National Income (NNI) at factor cost 4573328 4728776 4920183


(3.4) (4.0)
2. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)


2.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost 5247530 5482111 5741791


(4.5) (4.7)
2.2 Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices 5633050 5899847 6195842


(4.7) (5.0)
2.3 Net domestic product (NDP) at factor cost 4619695 4794228 4988116


(3.8) (4.0)
B. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL


Population (million) 1,202 1,217 1,233
Per capita NNI at factor cost (Rs.) 38,048 38,856 39,904


(2.1) (2.7)
Per capita GDP at factor cost (Rs.) 43,657 45,046 46,568
( 3.2 ) (3.4)

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

2nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: ProvisionalEstimate


STATEMENT 2:Provisional Estimates of National Income for the year 2013-14

(At current prices)
 
Item
2011-12
(2nd RE)
2012-13
(1st RE)
2013-14 (PE)
A. ESTIMATES AT AGGREGATE LEVEL
1. NATIONAL PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
1.1 Gross National Income (GNI) at factor cost
1.2 Net National Income (NNI) at factor cost
2. DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Rs. Crore)
2.1 Gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost
2.2 Gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices
2.3 Net domestic product (NDP) at factor cost
2.4 Gross National Disposable Income
B. ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL
Population (million)
Per capita NNI at factor cost (Rs.) Per capita GDP at factor cost (Rs.)
 
8,314,861
 
7,434,965
 
 
8,391,691
 
9,009,722
 
7,511,795
 
9,237,794
 
1,202
61,855
69,814
 
9,272,110
(11.5)
8,255,978
(11.0)
 
9,388,876
(11.9)
10,113,281
(12.2)
8,372,744
(11.5)
10,346,596
 
1,217
67,839
(9.7)
77,148
(10.5)
 
10,344,507
(11.6)
9,171,045
(11.1)
 
10,472,807
(11.5)
11,355,073
(12.3)
9,299,345
(11.1)
11,608,073
 
1,233
74,380
(9.6)
84,938
(10.1)

Note: The figures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year

2nd RE: Second Revised Estimate;1st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional estimate


STATEMENT 3: Provisional Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

(At 2004-05 prices) Rs. Crore
 
 
 
Industry
2011-12
(2nd RE)
2012-13
(1st RE)
2013-14 (PE) Percentage change over previous year
2012-13 2013-14
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing 753,832 764,510 800,548 1.4 4.7
2. mining & quarrying 110,725 108,328 106,838 -2.2 -1.4
3. manufacturing 854,098 863,876 857,705 1.1 -0.7
4. electricity, gas & water supply 100,646 102,922 109,018 2.3 5.9
5. construction 415,188 419,795 426,664 1.1 1.6
6. trade, hotels, transport and 1,402,261 1,473,353 1,517,826 5.1 3.0
communication




7. financing, insurance, real estate 945,534 1,048,748 1,183,714 10.9 12.9
& business services




8. community, social & personal 665,246 700,579 739,477 5.3 5.6
services
9. GDP at factor cost 5,247,530 5,482,111 5,741,791 4.5 4.7

2nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional Estimate

STATEMENT 4: Provisional Estimates of GDP at Factor Cost by Economic Activity

(At current prices)
Rs. Crore
 
Industry
2011-12
(2nd RE)
2012-13
(1st RE)
2013-14 (PE) Percentage change over previous year
2012-13 2013-14
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing 1,499,098 1,644,926 1,906,348 9.7 15.9
2. mining & quarrying 222,716 222,416 222,652 -0.1 0.1
3. manufacturing 1,236,182 1,320,907 1,350,039 6.9 2.2
4. electricity, gas & water supply 135,670 157,132 203,049 15.8 29.2
5. construction 689,798 759,990 818,432 10.2 7.7
6. trade, hotels, transport and communication 2,072,272 2,324,695 2,509,907 12.2 8.0
7. financing, insurance, real estate & business 1,381,524 1,617,076 1,939,482 17.1 19.9
services




8. community, social & personal services 1,154,431 1,341,734 1,522,898 16.2 13.5
9. GDP at factor cost 8,391,691 9,388,876 10,472,807 11.9 11.5

2nd RE: Second Revised Estimate; 1st RE: First Revised Estimate; PE: Provisional Estimate


 

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