Did mid-caps generate alpha in October 2024?

10 Nov 2024 , 11:03 PM

MID CAPS STRUGGLE TO GENERATE ALPHA IN OCTOBER 2024

To be fair, mid-caps did as well or as badly as the Nifty 50. Both these indices fell about 6-7%. The absence of any concerted buying in the mid-caps was obviously considering the uncertainty prevailing in October. There was the uncertainty of the US elections, with most of the opinion polls getting it awfully wrong. Most polls had safely predicted a close context, but Trump almost made it look like a no-contest. The other factor was dollar strength and most mid-caps tend to be vulnerable to rupee weakness. With the Fed looking set to slow the pace of rate cuts, it looked like rupee could be under further pressure. The third factor spooking mid-cap stocks was the spike in oil prices amidst rising tensions in West Asia. The net effect was that Indian could be vulnerable to higher levels of imported inflation at a macro level. That is again a major risk factor for the mid-caps.

HOW DID THE MID-CAP STOCKS FARE IN OCTOBER 2024

After giving positive returns in August and September, the mid-caps cracked -7.03% in October 2024. Here is a quick dekko.

• For October 2024, Nifty Mid-Cap 100 fell -7.03%. Out of the 94 mic-caps with full data, only 2 companies generated over 10% in October and 6 companies gave over 5%. Only 14 out of 94 companies gave positive returns, with the rest seeing erosion in value.
• For the year to October 2024, Nifty Mid-Cap 100 gained 44.71%. Out of the 94 mid-caps with full data, 11 companies generated over 100% returns, and 35 companies over 50%. Total of 81 out of 94 companies gave positive returns in year to October 2024.
• What about resilience? Nifty Mid-Cap 100 bounced 42.1% from the lows. Out of the 94 mic-caps with full data, 2 companies bounced over 200%, 18 companies bounced over 100%, and 46 bounced over 50%. Total of 7 companies bounced under 10% from lows.
• What about swing, or proximity to high price. The index overall had a swing factor of 7.9%. A total of 15 out of 94 companies are less than 10% from the peaks.

Let us look at mid-cap stocks from the perspective of momentum?

DID MID-CAPS SHOW MOMENTUM RETURNS IN OCTOBER 2024

In terms of 1-month returns, the Nifty Mid-Cap 100 contracted by -7.03%. Out of the 94 eligible stocks in the index, only 14 stocks gave positive returns. Here are the top-15.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BSE	4,483.25	15.72%	148.84%	4,989.80	1,750.50	156.11%	10.15%
INDIANB	589.65	12.42%	37.48%	632.70	390.90	50.84%	6.80%
MFSL	1,284.00	8.20%	45.17%	1,306.45	854.25	50.31%	1.72%
COFORGE	7,601.00	6.98%	51.68%	7,894.60	4,287.25	77.29%	3.72%
HINDZINC	557.00	6.41%	89.13%	807.70	284.60	95.71%	31.04%
PATANJALI	1,788.00	5.48%	33.14%	1,992.20	1,169.95	52.83%	10.25%
MAXHEALTH	1,015.00	4.89%	76.53%	1,118.00	569.05	78.37%	9.21%
OBEROIRLTY	1,980.00	4.18%	68.87%	2,065.20	1,117.50	77.18%	4.13%
PAYTM	758.00	3.77%	-16.91%	952.65	310.00	144.52%	20.43%
FEDERALBNK	204.29	3.44%	45.13%	206.59	139.40	46.55%	1.11%
MANKIND	2,671.00	3.43%	52.98%	2,835.00	1,683.05	58.70%	5.78%
TIINDIA	4,462.00	3.26%	44.33%	4,810.80	3,075.15	45.10%	7.25%
TATACHEM	1,149.00	1.44%	20.89%	1,349.00	933.00	23.15%	14.83%
PAGEIND	42,950.00	1.05%	15.36%	46,810.40	33,070.05	29.88%	8.25%
LUPIN	2,194.95	-0.34%	93.07%	2,312.00	1,123.00	95.45%	5.06%

Data Source: NSE

For October 2024, only BSE and Indian Bank gave double digit returns, in a tough month. In terms of sectoral mix; the top-15 had 5 BFSI stocks (BSE, Indian Bank, MFSL, Paytm, Federal Bank), and 4 healthcare stocks (Patanjali, Max Health, Mankind Pharma, and Lupin). The worst performers in October 2024 included IGL, Idea, Colgate, MRPL, SAIL, and TCOM.

DID MID-CAPS DELIVER ON 1-YEAR RETURNS?

Out of 94 mid-cap stocks, 11 stocks more than doubled yoy, while 35 stocks gave over 50% returns. A total of 13 stocks gave negative returns yoy. Here is the top-15 on 1-year returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
RVNL	471.00	-10.08%	208.37%	647.00	152.60	208.65%	27.20%
HUDCO	217.19	-7.93%	192.76%	353.70	74.05	193.30%	38.59%
OFSS	10,920.00	-4.86%	178.00%	12,619.00	3,869.25	182.23%	13.46%
DIXON	14,100.00	-0.95%	171.39%	15,900.00	5,089.35	177.05%	11.32%
TORNTPOWER	1,823.45	-2.15%	153.43%	2,037.00	715.35	154.90%	10.48%
BSE	4,483.25	15.72%	148.84%	4,989.80	1,750.50	156.11%	10.15%
POLICYBZR	1,692.00	-1.69%	142.16%	1,966.50	690.60	145.00%	13.96%
KALYANKJIL	655.80	-12.40%	121.00%	786.25	286.15	129.18%	16.59%
PRESTIGE	1,640.00	-9.97%	118.24%	2,074.80	736.80	122.58%	20.96%
MAZDOCK	4,080.00	-2.85%	112.42%	5,860.00	1,795.40	127.25%	30.38%
CUMMINSIND	3,495.70	-9.68%	109.08%	4,171.90	1,659.05	110.70%	16.21%
VOLTAS	1,651.90	-11.06%	98.68%	1,944.90	811.15	103.65%	15.07%
LUPIN	2,194.95	-0.34%	93.07%	2,312.00	1,123.00	95.45%	5.06%
NLCINDIA	257.60	-10.93%	90.67%	311.80	131.45	95.97%	17.38%
HINDZINC	557.00	6.41%	89.13%	807.70	284.60	95.71%	31.04%

Data Source: NSE

On a yoy basis, the list was dominated by 5 PSUs (RVNL, HUDCO, Mazagon Docks, NLC India, and HZL). The remaining stocks in the above list, were largely spread out across sectors including retailing, white goods, heavy equipment, realty, financial inclusion etc. The list at the bottom was Idea, IDFC First, Phoenix, Paytm, Bandhan AU Bank etc; BFSI dominated.

HOW RESILIENT WERE MID-CAPS IN LAST ONE YEAR?

In terms of bounce from the lows, the mid-caps overall bounced 42.1%. Total of 18 stocks more than doubled, and 46 jumped over 50%. Top-20 average bounce was 145.03%.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
PERSISTENT	5,372.00	-2.10%	-13.50%	5,798.70	1,517.05	254.11%	7.36%
RVNL	471.00	-10.08%	208.37%	647.00	152.60	208.65%	27.20%
HUDCO	217.19	-7.93%	192.76%	353.70	74.05	193.30%	38.59%
OFSS	10,920.00	-4.86%	178.00%	12,619.00	3,869.25	182.23%	13.46%
DIXON	14,100.00	-0.95%	171.39%	15,900.00	5,089.35	177.05%	11.32%
BSE	4,483.25	15.72%	148.84%	4,989.80	1,750.50	156.11%	10.15%
TORNTPOWER	1,823.45	-2.15%	153.43%	2,037.00	715.35	154.90%	10.48%
POLICYBZR	1,692.00	-1.69%	142.16%	1,966.50	690.60	145.00%	13.96%
PAYTM	758.00	3.77%	-16.91%	952.65	310.00	144.52%	20.43%
OIL	470.30	-17.05%	56.36%	767.90	195.47	140.60%	38.76%
HINDPETRO	382.00	-14.39%	51.18%	457.15	163.47	133.68%	16.44%
KALYANKJIL	655.80	-12.40%	121.00%	786.25	286.15	129.18%	16.59%
MAZDOCK	4,080.00	-2.85%	112.42%	5,860.00	1,795.40	127.25%	30.38%
BDL	1,085.00	-3.72%	10.17%	1,794.70	481.50	125.34%	39.54%
PRESTIGE	1,640.00	-9.97%	118.24%	2,074.80	736.80	122.58%	20.96%

Data Source: NSE

On resilience score, the list was dominated by 6 PSUs (RVNL, HUDCO, Mazagon Docks, Oil India, HPCL, Bharat Dynamics). The remaining stocks in the above list, were largely spread out and similar to the 1-year return rankings list. The list at the bottom was Astral, Delhivery, SBI Cards, Idea, SRF, Bandhan Bank, Tata Elxsi, AU Bank; largely a BFSI story.

HOW MID-CAPS FARED ON THE SWING FACTOR?

In terms of proximity to the peak, the index was just 7.9% short of the peak. Total of 15 stocks are less than 10% to the peak while 15 stocks are over 30% from the peak levels.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
FEDERALBNK	204.29	3.44%	45.13%	206.59	139.40	46.55%	1.11%
MFSL	1,284.00	8.20%	45.17%	1,306.45	854.25	50.31%	1.72%
COFORGE	7,601.00	6.98%	51.68%	7,894.60	4,287.25	77.29%	3.72%
OBEROIRLTY	1,980.00	4.18%	68.87%	2,065.20	1,117.50	77.18%	4.13%
LUPIN	2,194.95	-0.34%	93.07%	2,312.00	1,123.00	95.45%	5.06%
MANKIND	2,671.00	3.43%	52.98%	2,835.00	1,683.05	58.70%	5.78%
INDHOTEL	676.30	-0.73%	73.91%	720.45	380.10	77.93%	6.13%
PIIND	4,488.00	-5.13%	32.77%	4,804.05	3,220.00	39.38%	6.58%
INDIANB	589.65	12.42%	37.48%	632.70	390.90	50.84%	6.80%
TIINDIA	4,462.00	3.26%	44.33%	4,810.80	3,075.15	45.10%	7.25%
PERSISTENT	5,372.00	-2.10%	-13.50%	5,798.70	1,517.05	254.11%	7.36%
MUTHOOTFIN	1,917.00	-1.30%	48.43%	2,078.75	1,216.00	57.65%	7.78%
PAGEIND	42,950.00	1.05%	15.36%	46,810.40	33,070.05	29.88%	8.25%
MAXHEALTH	1,015.00	4.89%	76.53%	1,118.00	569.05	78.37%	9.21%
MPHASIS	2,883.50	-4.51%	34.42%	3,187.80	2,117.55	36.17%	9.55%

Data Source: NSE

In terms of proximity to the peak, the list is dominated by BFSI (Federal Bank, MFSL, Indian Bank, Muthoot), Healthcare (Lupin, Mankind, Max Health), and IT (Coforge, Persistent, Mphasis). Companies farthest from the peak were largely PSUs, financials, and defence stocks. Most of these sectors struggled to get back to their previous high levels.

What is the gist of the story. Unlike in August and September, consumer plays took a hit in October due to concerns over urban consumption. The dominance was about healthcare and select financials!