Commodities Buzz: EIA Expects Natural Gas Prices To Decline After January 2023

9 Nov 2022 , 10:10 AM

The US EIA estimates U.S. natural gas inventories ended October 2022 at more than 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), which is 4% below the five-year average and higher than what we had been forecasting in recent months. They fall in EIA forecast by 2.1 Tcf this winter to 1.4 Tcf by the end of March 2023. This withdrawal would be similar to the five-year average and result in inventories that are 8% below the five-year average at the end of March 2023. Because of higher-than-expected storage levels heading into winter forecast natural gas spot price at Henry Hub are likely to average about $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) across 4Q22 and 1Q23, which is more than $1/MMBtu lower than what EIA forecast in the October STEO. EIA expects that natural gas prices will decline after January as the deficit to the five-year average in inventories decreases..Powered by Commodity Insights