Energy Preview: EIA Expects Brent Crude To Average $108 Per Barrel In Q2 2022

13 Apr 2022 , 08:50 AM

EIA noted yesterday that the Brent crude oil spot price averaged $117 per barrel (b) in March, a $20/b increase from February. Crude oil prices increased following the further invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Sanctions on Russia and other actions contributed to falling oil production in Russia and created significant market uncertainties about the potential for further oil supply disruptions. These events occurred against a backdrop of low oil inventories and persistent upward oil price pressures. Global oil inventory draws averaged 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) from the third quarter of 2020 (3Q20) through the end of 2021. It estimates that commercial oil inventories in the OECD ended 1Q22 at 2.61 billion barrels, up slightly from February, which was the lowest level since April 2014. EIA expects the Brent price will average $108/b in 2Q22 and $102/b in the second half of 2022 (2H22). It expects the average price to fall to $93/b in 2023. However, this price forecast is highly uncertain.

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