Highlights: 1) A number of industrial-activity indicators show pickup in Jul/Aug — coal/cement/steel production, PV volumes (mainly led by dealer stocking), freight traffic, fuel & electricity consumption, etc. 2) Rural still depressed – weak tractor/ 2W sales & fertiliser consumption, high MNREGA demand, deteriorating rural consumer sentiment. 3) Brent crude above $90/bbl; but base metals and soft commodities weak. 4) INR forward premia (1M/3M/6M) has plummeted to below 1.5% vs 4-6% historically, as the US-India yield gap has narrowed significantly.
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