Market Speaks: USDA Sees Marginal Uptick In Global Wheat Output, Trims Outlook For Consumption

13 Jan 2022 , 12:14 PM

The January edition of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) of the USDA noted yesterday that the 2021/22 global wheat outlook is for stable supplies, decreased consumption, reduced exports, and increased stocks. Production increases in Argentina and the EU are offset by decreased production in Brazil and Paraguay and lower beginning stocks for Russia. Argentina’s production is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 20.5 million on updated harvest results. Russian beginning stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons on larger end-of- season exports in 2020/21. World 2021/22 consumption is lowered 1.9 million tons to 787.5 million, primarily due to lower feed and residual use for the United States, the EU, and Ukraine. Relatively higher wheat prices compared to feed grains are expected to reduce global feed use.

Projected 2021/22 global trade is lowered 1.1 million tons to 204.4 million as reductions in exports for Russia and the United States are only partially offset by higher exports from the EU. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are raised 1.8 million tons to 280.0 million, with increases primarily for the United States, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Argentina. However, 2021/22 global ending stocks are still forecast at the lowest level since 2016/17. USDA sees global Wheat output at 778.60 million tonnes in 2021/22, up marginally compared to estimated 777.89 million in its December update. In 2020/21, the output was 775.87 million. The total global grains output is seen at 2788.52 million tonnes, down marginally compared to 2790.33 million in December.

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