No respite yet from cheaper imports of chemicals: IIFL Capital Services

21 Jul 2023 , 10:36 AM

In this report analysts of IIFL Capital Services analyse imports of key bulk chemicals during Q1FY24 and highlight trends that would potentially benefit/impact domestic manufacturers. Import volumes across DAP, complex fertilizers, Bromine and Phenol rose sharply QoQ while that of PVC, Soda Ash and Ammonium Nitrite declined. Though imports of some chemicals have declined sequentially, they remain at elevated levels creating headwinds for domestic import substitution products. Benign freight costs have only aggravated the pain. 

DAP and NPK imports on the rise: 

Imports of NPKs rose ~41% YoY in Q1FY24, while it rose 31% sequentially. The growth in volumes was primarily driven by higher imports from Russia which rose 43% YoY. DAP import volumes rose ~2.9x YoY to 2.3 mn MT as availability improved. This was also due to government of India’s push to have sufficient inventory ahead of kharif season. China accounted for ~49% in DAP imports as against ~20% in FY23.

Imports decline sequentially, but remain elevated: 

India became net importer of Caustic soda as imports rose sharply from Iran. Even though PVC volumes declined sequentially, imports remained at elevated levels. Phenol imports saw spike of 18% YoY while Bromine and Ammonia rose 19% and 20% YoY respectively. Imports of Fluorspar and Acetic Acid remained flattish.

Soda ash imports remain elevated: 

Imports of Soda Ash rose 61% YoY to ~185,000 MT. Though imports from US were down from abnormally high levels witnessed during Q4FY23, it still remained at elevated levels. Turkey’s share of imports increased from 26% in FY23 to 30% in Q1. The higher imports have compelled domestic players like Tata Chemicals to take cumulative price cut of ~13-14% during Q1FY24 with the company taking price cut in Apr, May and June 2023.