Tata Steel Ltd (Q1 FY15)

India Infoline Research Team | Mumbai | August 18, 2014 16:40 IST

Tata Steel’s topline increased 11% yoy to Rs364bn; quite higher than our estimate of Rs346bn.

CMP Rs535, Target Rs630, Upside 17.8%
 
-  Tata Steel consolidated results were inline with our estimate as the impact of lower volumes was offset by higher realisations
-  Standalone operational results were marginally lower than estimate due to a jump in employee costs on a qoq basis
-  Adjusted EBIDTA/ton at Corus increased to US$52, higher than our estimate of US$42/ton on account of strong steel realisations in US Dollar
-  Performance of South East Asia operations remained below par due to dumping of cheap steel from China
-  Consolidated operating profit stood at Rs42.7bn, higher by 15.8% yoy, inline with our estimate of Rs42.2bn
-  Maintain BUY on expectations of a strong performance in Europe with a revised price target of Rs630

Result table
(Rs mn) Q1 FY15 Q1 FY14 % yoy Q4 FY14 % qoq
Net sales 364,272 328,048 11.0 424,281 (14.1)
Material costs (145,463) (131,786) 10.4 (191,164) (23.9)
Power and fuel costs (16,067) (14,634) 9.8 (15,952) 0.7
Personnel costs (56,343) (47,912) 17.6 (53,639) 5.0
Other overheads (103,674) (96,836) 7.1 (113,415) (8.6)
Operating profit 42,726 36,880 15.8 50,111 (14.7)
OPM (%) 11.7 11.2 49 bps 11.8 -8 bps
Depreciation (15,503) (14,033) 10.5 (14,719) 5.3
Interest (12,524) (9,924) 26.2 (11,694) 7.1
Other income 2,161 1,836 17.7 1,117 93.5
PBT 16,861 14,760 14.2 24,816 (32.1)
Tax (10,804) (3,514) 207.5 (13,645) (20.8)
Effective tax rate (%) 64.1 23.8 55.0
Other prov / minority etc (58) (33) 75.9 37 -
Adjusted PAT 5,998 11,213 (46.5) 11,208 (46.5)
Adj. PAT margin (%) 1.6 3.4 -177 bps 2.6 -99 bps
Extra ordinary items (2,625) 178 - (458) -
Reported PAT 3,373 11,390 (70.4) 10,749 (68.6)
Ann. EPS (Rs) 24.7 46.2 (46.5) 46.2 (46.5)
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
 
Higher realisations boost topline by 11% yoy
Tata Steel’s topline increased 11% yoy to Rs364bn; quite higher than our estimate of Rs346bn. The outperformance in topline was largely due to strong increase in steel realisations in Dollar terms in the European subsidiary. Steel realisations in Europe improved by 11.8% qoq in Dollar terms to US$1,084/ton from US$969/ton due to the a weakness in the Pound against the Dollar and lag impact of previous quarter contracts. In GBP terms the increase in realisations was quite lower. This impact on topline was curtailed by lower sales volume in Europe at 3.2mn tons against our estimate of 3.7mn tons. The company has witnessed some inventory buildup during the quarter. Standalone blended realisations were lower than expected due to lower contribution from FAMD division, which was impacted by suspension of operations at Tata Steel’s 2 mines. Production volumes in Europe were marginally lower by 1.1% qoq to 3.7mn tons. Volumes at its South Asian units remained subdued at 1.07mn tons due to dumping of cheap Chinese steel.
Average blended realizations in India were higher by 1.5% on a qoq in rupee terms due to lower contribution from the FAMD division. Net steel realisations were higher by 1.2% qoq as the impact of higher long products was some offset by lower flat product prices. An increase in share of Value added Products and higher retails sales also led to an increase in steel prices. The management expects prices to remain around current levels in the near term. Realisations in Europe jumped sharply by 11.8% qoq in dollar terms from US$969/ton in Q4 FY14 to US$1,084/ton due to weak GBP against the Dollar. The management indicated that steel prices are in a downward trend led by idle capacity in the region and lower raw material costs. Realizations at its South East Asia operations declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in dollar terms from US$814/ton in Q1 FY14 and US$660/ton in Q4 FY14 to US$626/ton. Steel prices in South East Asia were under pressure from the cheaper imports from China.
 
Higher employee cost curtail the growth in operating profit
Tata Steel India registered a 14.9% yoy growth in operating profit to Rs32.5bn, marginally lower than our estimate of Rs33.4bn. The underperformance in operating profit was largely due to a sharp increase in employee costs and higher power costs. Employee costs which were declining in the previous two quarters increased on a qoq basis to Rs11.3bn due to higher actuarial provisioning and salary hikes. Raw material costs per ton decreased from Rs12,837/ton in Q4 FY14 to Rs10,897/ton due to lower costs of landed coking coal. However, the share of imported coal continued to increase with the increase in steel production. Power costs per ton of steel increased on a qoq basis by 34%. Other expenditure per ton of steel declined 1.3% qoq due to one-off costs and lower stores & spares. Operating profit per ton for the domestic operations decreased by 9.1% qoq to Rs15,504/ton, inline with our estimate.  
 
Blended per ton cost analysis (Standalone)
Q1 FY15  Q1 FY14 % yoy Q4 FY14 % qoq
Steel production (mn tons) 2.25 2.15 4.7 2.38 (5.5)
Steel sales (mn tons) 2.10 2.00 5.0 2.41 (12.9)
Sales as a % of production 93.3 93.0 101.3
Net realisations (Rs/ton) 49,849 47,277 5.4 50,586 (1.5)
Cost per ton (Rs/ton)
RM/ton 10,897 10,596 2.8 12,837 (15.1)
Staff cost 5,382 5,014 7.3 3,309 62.6
Power and fuel costs 3,435 3,263 5.3 2,563 34.0
Other expenditure 14,631 14,233 2.8 14,828 (1.3)
Total cost 34,345 33,105 3.7 33,537 2.4
Operating profit/ton 15,504 14,172 9.4 17,049 (9.1)
Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Higher realisations at Europe offset the impact of lower volumes and weak South East Asia business
Tata Steel on a consolidated level registered an operating profit of Rs42bn, higher by 15.8% yoy. This was inline with our estimate as the impact of higher steel realisations was offset by lower volumes and weak South East Asia business performance. During the quarter, European operations registered an adjusted operating profit of US$166mn against our expectations of US$156mn. EBIDTA/ton for European operations stood at US$52/ton, higher by 17.4% qoq and above our estimate of US$42/ton. The increase in operating profit has been largely due to higher realisations as raw material costs remained flat on a qoq basis. The management expects the full impact of this to be felt in Q2 FY15. The management expects the margins to improve in Q2 FY15 as the spread has increased during the quarter. South East operations registered a 62.5% qoq decrease in operating profit due to lower realisations and pressure from cheap Chinese imports.          
 
Company performance
Tata Steel Standalone Q1 FY15  Q1 FY14 % yoy Q4 FY14 % qoq
Sales volume (mn tons) 2.10 2.00 5.0 2.41 (12.9)
Realisation (Rs/ton) 49,848 47,275 5.4 50,585 (1.5)
Revenue (Rs mn) 104,680 94,550 10.7 121,910 (14.1)
EBIDTA (Rs mn) 32,660 28,970 12.7 40,520 (19.4)
OPM (%) 31.2 30.6 56 bps 33.2 -204 bps
EBIDTA/ton (Rs) 15,552 14,485 7.4 16,813 (7.5)
Tata Steel UK - Corus Q1 FY15  Q1 FY14 % yoy Q4 FY14 % qoq
Sales volume (mn tons) 3.20 3.14 1.9 4.07 (21.4)
Realisation (Rs/ton) 64,816 58,701 10.4 59,892 8.2
Revenue (Rs mn) 207,410 184,320 12.5 243,760 (14.9)
EBIDTA (Rs mn) 9,950 7,770 28.1 8,170 21.8
OPM (%) 4.8 4.2 58 bps 3.4 145 bps
EBIDTA/ton (Rs) 3,109 2,475 25.7 2,007 54.9
South East Asian operations Q1 FY15  Q1 FY14 % yoy Q4 FY14 % qoq
Sales volume (mn tons) 1.08 0.86 25.6 1.07 0.9
Realisation (Rs/ton) 37,454 45,442 (17.6) 40,794 (8.2)
Revenue (Rs mn) 40,450 39,080 3.5 43,650 (7.3)
EBIDTA (Rs mn) 300 930 (67.7) 800 (62.5)
OPM (%) 0.7 2.4 -164 bps 1.8 -109 bps
EBIDTA/ton (Rs) 278 1,081 (74.3) 748 (62.8)
Source: Company, India Infoline Research

Turn around in Corus and strong domestic business would lead to rerating
We believe domestic operations would continue to be the earnings driver for Tata Steel over the next two years. The European operations would continue to register the revival in profitability over the next two years on account of a revival in demand in the region and further cost savings. We expect Tata Steel to report strong earnings over the next two years due to 1) incremental volumes from the Jamshedpur unit in FY15 and commissioning of Kalinganagar operations in FY16 2) impact of restructuring exercise in Europe and lower raw material prices 3) marginal revival in demand in the European region 4) benefits from overseas raw material projects. Tata Steel remains our preferred pick in the sector on the back of strong performance registered in the last one year and due to the various earnings driver for the company over the next two years. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs630.
 
Financial Summary
Y/e 31 Mar (Rs m) FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Revenues 1,347,115 1,486,136 1,539,366 1,623,441
yoy growth (%) 1.4 10.3 3.6 5.5
Operating profit 123,211 163,833 191,001 214,696
OPM (%) 9.1 11.0 12.4 13.2
Pre-exceptional PAT 3,322 35,949 41,740 55,927
Reported PAT (70,577) 35,949 67,990 55,927
yoy growth (%) - - 89.1 (17.7)
Adj. EPS (Rs) 3.4 37.0 43.0 57.6
P/E (x) 156.5 14.5 12.5 9.3
Price/Book (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 7.8 6.7 5.8
Debt/Equity (x) 1.7 1.9 1.6 1.4
RoE (%) 0.9 9.6 9.6 11.5
RoCE (%) 6.7 9.4 10.2 11.2
Source: Company, India Infoline Research
 

***Note: This is a NSE Chart

 

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