Lagging and leading behavior of Bank Nifty can help us to gauge the strength or weakness of the ongoing trend in Nifty.

In the last three election years, the Nifty has always given strong returns and has exhibited a robust performance even seven months post the election phase with average returns of 26.67%.

Here’s a Utopian vision – the government would announce a GST rate cut, homebuyers would cheer up since prices would reduce marginally, and the market revives. Really?

Crude oil prices will continue to remain a major driver for the market. If oil remains subdued, the market may retain its strength.

In the last seven years, the Nifty has given an average return of 20-25% from lows whenever India VIX has come off from 23-25% or 33% levels.

The good news is everyone believes economy is relatively insulated from government at center – single party/ coalition or whatever the arrangement will be.

Despite all odds, economic indicators remained positive with India’s GDP growth rate pegged at 7.3% in 2018. CPI inflation, a major concern in the past, remained reined in at a manageable 4.8%.

The Nifty50 fell in 1998, 2008, 2011, and 2014. It suffered its worst fall of 24% in the year 2008, followed by a 6% decline in the year 2011 and 5% decline in 2016.

The Nifty has approached the oversold zone after correcting by 15% over the past eight weeks. Hence, we believe that the index could undergo a trend reversal process.

Housing sales have also witnessed a jump of ~8% in the first three quarters of 2018 as against the same period in 2017. While we are still far away from historic peak levels, the positive impact of reformatory changes such as RERA and GST has been making itself felt.