Nifty closes January 2025 below the 23,500 level

7 Feb 2025 , 09:50 AM

NIFTY BELOW 23,500; AS TRUMP SPOOKS MARKETS

The FPI buying in December 2024 looked like a flash in the pan as they were back as aggressive sellers in January 2025. The $9.01 Billion of selling by FPIs in January was only just lower than the October 2024 selling of over $11 Billion. While valuation concerns and Q3 numbers continue to remain an overhang, the big concern is that Trump could trigger an all out trade war with his punitive tariffs in Mexico, Canada, and China. Even a Union Budget that had its focus on boosting consumption and fiscal responsibility did not matter much.as

As of the close of January 2025, the Nifty 50 index delivered monthly returns of -0.99%, the fourth consecutive month of negative returns, while annual returns were subdued at 8.35%. Also, the Nifty index has bounced 10.34% from the lows of the year, showing signs of resilience. However, the momentum appears to be weak, with the Nifty still 10.64% short of its yearly peaks. The market does look very vulnerable at this juncture.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – NIFTY STOCK RETURNS IN JANUARY 2025

With Nifty index returns of -0.99% in January 2025, there were 25 gainers and 25 losers. While the positive side returns were 5.29%, the negative side returns were -5.62%. Here are the top-15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BAJFINANCE	8,001.00	13.70%	16.93%	8,250.65	6,187.80	29.30%	3.03%
TATACONSUM	1,067.30	11.34%	-9.29%	1,256.44	882.90	20.89%	15.05%
ONGC	257.70	10.83%	6.04%	345.00	223.00	15.56%	25.30%
BAJAJFINSV	1,766.30	10.13%	7.02%	2,029.90	1,419.05	24.47%	12.99%
MARUTI	12,910.00	9.84%	15.72%	13,680.00	10,204.00	26.52%	5.63%
TITAN	3,572.40	7.27%	-3.78%	3,867.00	3,055.65	16.91%	7.62%
BRITANNIA	5,203.65	6.98%	-0.37%	6,469.90	4,641.00	12.12%	19.57%
NESTLEIND	2,330.00	6.64%	-6.26%	2,778.00	2,131.25	9.33%	16.13%
EICHERMOT	5,394.45	6.33%	32.06%	5,423.05	3,672.00	46.91%	0.53%
HINDUNILVR	2,505.00	6.32%	-0.19%	3,035.00	2,172.05	15.33%	17.46%
KOTAKBANK	1,910.70	6.31%	4.31%	1,942.00	1,543.85	23.76%	1.61%
SBILIFE	1,445.00	5.94%	3.55%	1,936.00	1,307.70	10.50%	25.36%
JSWSTEEL	934.00	4.37%	17.87%	1,063.00	761.75	22.61%	12.14%
WIPRO	305.55	3.86%	-33.83%	324.60	208.50	46.55%	5.87%
HEROMOTOCO	4,390.90	3.70%	-5.40%	6,246.25	3,997.50	9.84%	29.70%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 4 BFSI stocks, 4 FMCG stocks, and 2 auto stocks. This can be attributed to the late rally on the Budget day, which had a huge relief for the salaried class. In a tough month, healthcare stocks were the quiet stars. If you look at the bottom 15, some of the heavyweights found themselves in the list including Trent, BPCL, Reddy Labs, Adani Ports, and Adani Enterprises. The top 10 stocks gave average monthly return of 8.94% while the top 20 stocks averaged 6.40% for January 2025.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR YEAR TO JAN-25

With Nifty index returns of 8.35% in January 2025, there were 31 gainers and 19 losers. While the positive side returns were 19.55%, the negative side returns were -16.95%. Here are the top-15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
TRENT	6,155.00	-18.60%	85.42%	8,345.00	2,955.00	108.29%	26.24%
M&M	3,069.85	-2.99%	81.08%	3,237.05	1,623.45	89.09%	5.17%
BEL	280.65	-0.43%	59.57%	340.50	171.75	63.41%	17.58%
BHARTIARTL	1,624.90	1.92%	41.27%	1,779.00	1,097.65	48.03%	8.66%
EICHERMOT	5,394.45	6.33%	32.06%	5,423.05	3,672.00	46.91%	0.53%
TECHM	1,645.20	-1.73%	27.58%	1,807.70	1,162.95	41.47%	8.99%
SUNPHARMA	1,747.15	-7.73%	23.86%	1,960.35	1,377.20	26.86%	10.88%
ICICIBANK	1,254.50	-2.40%	22.21%	1,362.35	985.25	27.33%	7.92%
SBIN	766.40	-2.56%	19.34%	912.00	633.25	21.03%	15.96%
JSWSTEEL	934.00	4.37%	17.87%	1,063.00	761.75	22.61%	12.14%
GRASIM	2,440.00	2.73%	17.86%	2,877.75	2,027.50	20.35%	15.21%
BAJFINANCE	8,001.00	13.70%	16.93%	8,250.65	6,187.80	29.30%	3.03%
HDFCBANK	1,692.00	-4.71%	15.85%	1,880.00	1,363.55	24.09%	10.00%
ULTRACEMCO	11,318.00	0.35%	15.77%	12,145.35	9,250.00	22.36%	6.81%
MARUTI	12,910.00	9.84%	15.72%	13,680.00	10,204.00	26.52%	5.63%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best long term returns in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 4 BFSI companies, 3 auto stocks, and 2 cement sector plays. The rest were spread out. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by the Adani Group stocks. Reliance found itself in the bottom after correcting sharply from the peak levels. The top 10 stocks gave average annual return of 41.03% while the top 20 stocks averaged 27.65% for the year 2024.

 

NIFTY RESILIENCE SCORE IN JANUARY 2025

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from the 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year was 10.34%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 1 stock (Trent) bounced over 100% from the lows, while 7 stocks bounced over 40% from the lows.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
TRENT	6,155.00	-18.60%	85.42%	8,345.00	2,955.00	108.29%	26.24%
M&M	3,069.85	-2.99%	81.08%	3,237.05	1,623.45	89.09%	5.17%
BEL	280.65	-0.43%	59.57%	340.50	171.75	63.41%	17.58%
BHARTIARTL	1,624.90	1.92%	41.27%	1,779.00	1,097.65	48.03%	8.66%
EICHERMOT	5,394.45	6.33%	32.06%	5,423.05	3,672.00	46.91%	0.53%
WIPRO	305.55	3.86%	-33.83%	324.60	208.50	46.55%	5.87%
TECHM	1,645.20	-1.73%	27.58%	1,807.70	1,162.95	41.47%	8.99%
HCLTECH	1,694.70	-9.75%	9.39%	2,012.20	1,235.00	37.22%	15.78%
INFY	1,863.00	-0.14%	13.44%	2,006.45	1,358.35	37.15%	7.15%
BAJFINANCE	8,001.00	13.70%	16.93%	8,250.65	6,187.80	29.30%	3.03%
ICICIBANK	1,254.50	-2.40%	22.21%	1,362.35	985.25	27.33%	7.92%
SUNPHARMA	1,747.15	-7.73%	23.86%	1,960.35	1,377.20	26.86%	10.88%
MARUTI	12,910.00	9.84%	15.72%	13,680.00	10,204.00	26.52%	5.63%
BAJAJFINSV	1,766.30	10.13%	7.02%	2,029.90	1,419.05	24.47%	12.99%
HDFCBANK	1,692.00	-4.71%	15.85%	1,880.00	1,363.55	24.09%	10.00%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 4 IT stocks, 4 BFSI stocks, and 3 Auto plays. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by the heavyweight stocks like (Tata Motors, Reliance Industries, BPCL, Asian Paints, Coal India, Axis Bank, NTPC Ltd, and Larsen & Toubro). Reliance has obviously had a major impact on the ability of the index to bounce. The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 54.74% while the top 20 stocks averaged 39.43% for year to the close of January 2025.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high. Lower the gap, higher the swing factor. Nifty had a disappointing swing factor of 10.64%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, only 3 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while a total of 13 stocks are less than 10% away. Swing has deteriorated in recent months.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
EICHERMOT	5,394.45	6.33%	32.06%	5,423.05	3,672.00	46.91%	0.53%
KOTAKBANK	1,910.70	6.31%	4.31%	1,942.00	1,543.85	23.76%	1.61%
BAJFINANCE	8,001.00	13.70%	16.93%	8,250.65	6,187.80	29.30%	3.03%
M&M	3,069.85	-2.99%	81.08%	3,237.05	1,623.45	89.09%	5.17%
MARUTI	12,910.00	9.84%	15.72%	13,680.00	10,204.00	26.52%	5.63%
WIPRO	305.55	3.86%	-33.83%	324.60	208.50	46.55%	5.87%
ULTRACEMCO	11,318.00	0.35%	15.77%	12,145.35	9,250.00	22.36%	6.81%
INFY	1,863.00	-0.14%	13.44%	2,006.45	1,358.35	37.15%	7.15%
TITAN	3,572.40	7.27%	-3.78%	3,867.00	3,055.65	16.91%	7.62%
ICICIBANK	1,254.50	-2.40%	22.21%	1,362.35	985.25	27.33%	7.92%
BHARTIARTL	1,624.90	1.92%	41.27%	1,779.00	1,097.65	48.03%	8.66%
TECHM	1,645.20	-1.73%	27.58%	1,807.70	1,162.95	41.47%	8.99%
APOLLOHOSP	6,825.00	-7.59%	8.31%	7,545.35	5,693.20	19.88%	9.55%
HDFCBANK	1,692.00	-4.71%	15.85%	1,880.00	1,363.55	24.09%	10.00%
SUNPHARMA	1,747.15	-7.73%	23.86%	1,960.35	1,377.20	26.86%	10.88%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 4 Financials, 3 IT stocks, 3 Auto stocks, and 2 Healthcare stocks; while others were spread out.  If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by stock specific names. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 5.13% while the top 20 stocks averaged 8.06% for January 2025. This clearly positions the market in an extremely uncertain zone.