Commodities Buzz: EIA Sees Brent Crude Oil Averaging $92 Per Barrel In 2023

8 Dec 2022 , 05:27 PM

EIA stated in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook that global oil inventories in its forecast fall by 0.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2023 (1H23) before rising by almost 0.7 million b/d in 2H23. This forecast leaves global oil inventories higher at the end of 2023 than EIA had forecast in the November STEO, which results in Brent crude oil price forecast averaging $92 per barrel (b) in 2023, $3/b less than EIA had forecast last month. U.S refinery utilization in the forecast remains near its five-year average through 2023. We expect the combination of a slight contraction in the U.S. economy and refinery maximization of distillate fuel production will reduce distillate prices in 1H23. EIA forecasts US diesel refining margins will fall by 19% in 2023 compared with 2022. However, the EUs ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia creates supply and price uncertainty for distillate markets in early 2023. Powered by Commodity Insights