20 Jan 2022 , 10:46 AM
The domestic passenger traffic is likely to witness M-o-M de-growth of 40%-42% in January 2022 and 15%-17% in February 2022 resulting in temporary slowdown in the recovery of domestic passenger traffic in Q4 FY2022. Overall, passenger traffic is expected to be lower by 40%-45% in Q4 FY2022 and the traffic recovery for FY2022 is moderated to 52% of pre-Covid level as against our earlier estimates of 62% of pre-Covid level.”
Due to healthy recovery in passenger traffic post second wave impact and dip in Covid-19 infections, the Directorate General of Central Aviation (DGCA) in November 2021 had announced plans to allow resumption of scheduled international commercial operations from December 15, 2021. However, the new Covid-19 variant, Omicron, has forced the regulator to extend the ban on international commercial operations till January 31, 2022 and is expected to be further extended. Once restrictions are lifted, the recovery of international passenger traffic is expected to happen in a gradual manner and is expected to reach pre-Covid levels only by FY2024.
“The pace of passenger traffic recovery is expected to be sharp and much faster when compared to the second wave of pandemic. As for the airport operators, their strong on balance-sheet liquidity is expected to support their credit profile in the near term. However, the outlook on the airport infrastructure continues to remain Negative. ICRA expects domestic air travel to recover back to pre-Covid levels by FY2023 and the international sector by FY2024. This is factoring in the assumption that impact of future Covid waves (if any) to be low,” Mr. Burla added.
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