While the RBI publishes the MPC minutes on the 14th Day from the policy statement, the Fed publishes the FOMC minutes, 21 days after the policy statement. It may be recollected that the Fed repeated its 25 bps rate cut in May 2023, taking the benchmark rates to the range of 5.00% to 5.25%. Rates are now a full 500 basis points higher than the March 2022 levels. It must be said that inflation has responded quite well, although it is still off its targeted level of 2%. While the theme of the May policy statement was more inflation-obsessed, it emerges from the minutes that member discussions were a lot more optimistic and less hawkish.
When the policy statement was put out on 03rd May 2023, the theme was that the Fed would be officially done with rate hikes once inflation came down to 2% on a sustainable basis. The minutes indicate that even as the tone of the Fed remained hawkish, it has started hinting at being closer to the top of the interest rate cycle. That is a logical approach. After all, the advance estimates of GDP for the first quarter of CY2023 hints at a clear slowdown in growth. With the banking crisis on one side and the debt ceiling uncertainty on the other, the US markets are caught between the proverbial devil and the deep sea. There seems to be a lot more pragmatism in the Fed tone as evident in the minutes of the FOMC.
Markets are now less optimistic about rate cuts in 2023
One of the standout themes in the last two months was the divergence between the Fed view and the market view as evinced by the CME Fedwatch. The Fed minutes underlined that while June could see a pause, rate cuts in 2023 were almost ruled out.
Fed Meet |
325-350 |
350-375 |
375-400 |
400-425 |
425-450 |
450- |
475- |
500- |
525-550 |
550-575 |
Jun-23 |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
67% |
33% |
Nil |
Jul-23 |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
40.4% |
46.5% |
13.1% |
Sep-23 |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
10.5% |
42.0% |
37.8% |
9.7% |
Nov-23 |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
7.1% |
31.9% |
39.2% |
18.7% |
3.1% |
Dec-23 |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
4.9% |
24.1% |
36.9% |
25.1% |
8.0% |
1.0% |
Jan-24 |
Nil |
Nil |
Nil |
3.7% |
19.6% |
33.9% |
27.9% |
12.0% |
2.6% |
0.2% |
Mar-24 |
Nil |
0.4% |
3.4% |
18.2% |
32.6% |
28.4% |
13.5% |
3.5% |
0.4% |
Nil |
May-24 |
0.5% |
5.4% |
20.1% |
32.0% |
26.4% |
12.1% |
3.1% |
0.4% |
Nil |
Nil |
Jun-24 |
3.9% |
14.8% |
27.7% |
28.4% |
17.3% |
6.3% |
1.4% |
0.2% |
Nil |
Nil |
Data source: CME Fedwatch
While the market continues to bet on rate cuts in 2023 and 2024, the Fed has cautioned not to expect any rate cuts in 2023. The latest CME Fedwatch shows that the market still expects rate cuts but is now less optimistic about it. Here are some key takeaways.
For now, the Fed has maintained its stance that inflation is not falling as fast as expected. However, members of the FOMC now want greater optionality to move both ways as warranted. Rate bias is more neutral now and the first test would be if there is a pause in the June 2023 policy. Based on the minutes, it looks a very likely scenario.
What we read in the Fed minutes for May 2023
One thing is clear from the minutes that officials are now more divided about the direction of interest rates. This ambivalence is good as it is likely to incorporate more diverse ideas in future debates. Here are some key takeaways.
The moral of the story from the minutes is that the situation is very fluid and the Fed must keep an open mind with higher optionality at this point of time.
What the Fed minutes mean for India?
There is some good news and there is also some bad news. Like Marlon Brando suggested in the Godfather; “It is better to go with the bad news first.” The bad news is the high likelihood of a US recession in the fourth quarter. That could hit tech spending, exports and put pressure on growth considering the huge trade surplus that India runs with the US. The debt ceiling uncertainty is already a major headwind for Indian markets.
The good news is that global hawkishness may be coming to an end and if the Fed pauses in June, it will be the first affirmation. Dovishness has always suited India in terms of economic growth, stock market returns and portfolio flows. If that happens, it could be a positive tipping point for the Indian economy in general and Indian stock markets in particular.
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