June 2022 trade deficit at all-time high raises CAD concerns
- India Infoline News Service
- 15 Jul , 2022
- 11:56 AM
It is always enticing to begin with the good news, so we first savour the good news on the total trade front. June 2022 marks the fourth consecutive month that total trade (imports plus exports) stayed above the $100 billion mark. The total trade was $102.96 billion in March 2022, $100.49 billion in April 2022, $102.17 billion in May 2022 and $106.44 billion in June 2022.
However, not all is hunky dory on the trade front. June also marks fourth successive month, the merchandise imports stayed above $60 billion. Merchandise trade deficit at $26.18 billion is again an all-time record. At this run rate, India could end FY23 with total trade above $1.20 trillion and merchandise trade deficit of around $280 billion.
Data Source: DGFT
How the headline trade numbers panned out?
High levels of total trade is always positive as it is indicative of the extent of job creation and MSME order flows. Here is a quick take.
Exports hold up in June 2022 amidst headwinds
Exports at $40.13 billion in June 2022 are up 23.52% yoy. On a sequential basis, the exports were higher by 3.06% compared to May 2022. While the weak rupee has helped exports, what is laudable is that this comes amidst headwinds like shutdowns in China, Ukraine war, commodity inflation, weak corporate margins and monetary tightness. It is creditable that export performance has averaged above $40 billion in last 4 months.
There were several star export performers in June 2022. Exports of Petroleum Products (+119.03%), Cereals (+74.35%), Electronic Goods (+60.70%), Textiles (+49.82%), Rice (+42.91%), Leather Products (+38.59%), Oilseeds (+29.68%), Mica/coal/ores (+29.28%), Coffee (+26.47%) and Gems & Jewellery (+25.29%) were among the key export growth drivers in June 2022.
However, there were also some export laggards in June 2022. Iron ore (-97.81%), Handicrafts (-28.68%), Plastic & Linoleum (-20.01%), Cotton Yarn (-19.49%), Carpets (-8.97%) and Cashew (-5.87%) lagged. Non-petroleum and non-jewellery exports in June 2022 stood at $27.94 billion compared to $25.71 billion in June 2021.
Import surge triggered by crude oil and coking coal
Merchandise imports for June 2022 stood at a record $66.31 billion, up 57.55% yoy. Imports were up 9.97% sequentially. Crude oil imports at $21.30 billion in June 2022 was sequentially higher despite Russian oil imports. Crude oil imports were up 99.48% yoy. Crude still accounts for one-third of India’s import bill but there are other heads that are catching up quite rapidly.
The big import surge in June 2022 came from Silver (+6,540%), Coal, coke & briquettes (+261%), Gold (+183%), Petroleum & Crude (99.48%), Raw Cotton (82.67%), Textile Yarn (75.70%) and Sulphur (73.29%). Major items in the basket that showed lower imports yoy in June 2022 were Pulses (-47.69%), Medicinal and Pharma Products (-42.86%), Professional Instruments (-19.57%) and Machine Tools (-3.30%). Gold imports in June 2022 at $2.75 billion, was less than half of gold imports of $6.05 billion in May 2022.
CAD could be the real challenge for FY23
BOFA has already warned that India’s current account deficit (CAD) for FY23 could cross $100 billion or 3% of GDP. The overall trade deficit combining merchandise and services trade stood at $(27.30) billion in May 2022 but burgeoned to $(45.18) billion as of the close of June 2022. That is a sharp increase of $17.88 billion to the overall deficit in one month. At this run rate, the overall deficit could end up closer to $170-180 billion and could pose a real challenge to the current account deficit (CAD) levels.
Data Source: DGFT (# - DGFT estimates due to 1-month lag in RBI reporting)
Now for a quick recap. India closed FY21 with combined deficit of $-12.75 billion or $1.06 billion a month. The combined deficit in FY22 was $-87.79 billion, or $7.32 billion a month. At the current run rate, it looks like India could close FY23 with an overall deficit in the vicinity of $180 billion, substantially higher than FY22. If the CAD crosses 5% of GDP, it is likely to put a lot of pressure on the Indian rupee and on the sovereign ratings of India.
Addressing the trade deficit will be the challenge
FY22 saw overall trade cross $1 trillion for the first time ever and FY23 could see overall trade cross $1.20 trillion at the current run rate. However, it will come at the cost of sharply higher imports of crude, gold, fertilizers, coal, coke and edible oils. Here are 2 major event based challenges for Indian trade policy.
However, not all is hunky dory on the trade front. June also marks fourth successive month, the merchandise imports stayed above $60 billion. Merchandise trade deficit at $26.18 billion is again an all-time record. At this run rate, India could end FY23 with total trade above $1.20 trillion and merchandise trade deficit of around $280 billion.
Data Source: DGFT
How the headline trade numbers panned out?
High levels of total trade is always positive as it is indicative of the extent of job creation and MSME order flows. Here is a quick take.
- In the last 4 months between March and June 2022, exports have maintained an average run of $40 billion a month, despite global supply chain headwinds.
- If you look at comparisons of June 2022 over June 2021, exports are up over 23.52% while imports are up over 57.55%. That explains the trade deficit pressure.
- India’s overall trade deficit (merchandise plus services) for Apr-June is over $45 billion. At this rate, the overall deficit for FY23 could be well above $175 billion, putting intense pressure on the current account deficit (CAD).
Exports hold up in June 2022 amidst headwinds
Exports at $40.13 billion in June 2022 are up 23.52% yoy. On a sequential basis, the exports were higher by 3.06% compared to May 2022. While the weak rupee has helped exports, what is laudable is that this comes amidst headwinds like shutdowns in China, Ukraine war, commodity inflation, weak corporate margins and monetary tightness. It is creditable that export performance has averaged above $40 billion in last 4 months.
There were several star export performers in June 2022. Exports of Petroleum Products (+119.03%), Cereals (+74.35%), Electronic Goods (+60.70%), Textiles (+49.82%), Rice (+42.91%), Leather Products (+38.59%), Oilseeds (+29.68%), Mica/coal/ores (+29.28%), Coffee (+26.47%) and Gems & Jewellery (+25.29%) were among the key export growth drivers in June 2022.
However, there were also some export laggards in June 2022. Iron ore (-97.81%), Handicrafts (-28.68%), Plastic & Linoleum (-20.01%), Cotton Yarn (-19.49%), Carpets (-8.97%) and Cashew (-5.87%) lagged. Non-petroleum and non-jewellery exports in June 2022 stood at $27.94 billion compared to $25.71 billion in June 2021.
Import surge triggered by crude oil and coking coal
Merchandise imports for June 2022 stood at a record $66.31 billion, up 57.55% yoy. Imports were up 9.97% sequentially. Crude oil imports at $21.30 billion in June 2022 was sequentially higher despite Russian oil imports. Crude oil imports were up 99.48% yoy. Crude still accounts for one-third of India’s import bill but there are other heads that are catching up quite rapidly.
The big import surge in June 2022 came from Silver (+6,540%), Coal, coke & briquettes (+261%), Gold (+183%), Petroleum & Crude (99.48%), Raw Cotton (82.67%), Textile Yarn (75.70%) and Sulphur (73.29%). Major items in the basket that showed lower imports yoy in June 2022 were Pulses (-47.69%), Medicinal and Pharma Products (-42.86%), Professional Instruments (-19.57%) and Machine Tools (-3.30%). Gold imports in June 2022 at $2.75 billion, was less than half of gold imports of $6.05 billion in May 2022.
CAD could be the real challenge for FY23
BOFA has already warned that India’s current account deficit (CAD) for FY23 could cross $100 billion or 3% of GDP. The overall trade deficit combining merchandise and services trade stood at $(27.30) billion in May 2022 but burgeoned to $(45.18) billion as of the close of June 2022. That is a sharp increase of $17.88 billion to the overall deficit in one month. At this run rate, the overall deficit could end up closer to $170-180 billion and could pose a real challenge to the current account deficit (CAD) levels.
| Particulars | Exports FY23 ($ bn) | Imports FY23 ($ bn) | Surplus / Deficit ($ bn) |
| Merchandise trade | $118.96 bn | $189.76 bn | $(-70.80) bn |
| Services Trade # | $70.97 bn | $45.35 bn | $+25.62 bn |
| Overall Trade | $189.93 bn | $235.11 bn | $(-45.18) bn |
Now for a quick recap. India closed FY21 with combined deficit of $-12.75 billion or $1.06 billion a month. The combined deficit in FY22 was $-87.79 billion, or $7.32 billion a month. At the current run rate, it looks like India could close FY23 with an overall deficit in the vicinity of $180 billion, substantially higher than FY22. If the CAD crosses 5% of GDP, it is likely to put a lot of pressure on the Indian rupee and on the sovereign ratings of India.
Addressing the trade deficit will be the challenge
FY22 saw overall trade cross $1 trillion for the first time ever and FY23 could see overall trade cross $1.20 trillion at the current run rate. However, it will come at the cost of sharply higher imports of crude, gold, fertilizers, coal, coke and edible oils. Here are 2 major event based challenges for Indian trade policy.
- China reported 0.4% GDP growth in the second quarter. That is not great news as it is likely to negatively impact the demand for a host of consumer and industrial goods. Also, the lockdowns would mean tepid production in China and that will have an impact on the supply chains across the world, India included.
- Fed has gone from being hawkish to Ultra-hawkish and the latest inflation number at 9.1% could result in a 100 bps rate hike in the July FOMC meet. That is only likely to add to the fears of recession and impact industrial demand, retail consumption and technology spending in a big way. That poses a big question mark for Indian exports.
India reports current account deficit of $9.6 Bn in Sep-21 quarter
- India Infoline News Service
- 03 Jan , 2022
- 8:05 AM
If the Jun-21 quarter flattered with a current account surplus of $6.6 billion, the Sep-21 quarter disappointed with current account deficit of $9.6 billion. It is rather ironic, but India’s current account situation only improves when COVID curbs stifle imports.
India had reported record levels of current account surplus of $19.79 billion and $15.51 billion in Jun-20 and Sep-20 quarters respectively. Sep-21, in a way, is back to reality. The chart captures how the current account deficit has panned out over last 12 quarters.
For the Sep-21 quarter, the current account dipped to a deficit of $9.6 billion from a surplus of $6.6 billion in the Jun-21 quarter. There were 3 key reasons for the current account again dipping into deficit in Sep-21 quarter.
a) Firstly, the merchandise trade deficit has consistently widened with the figure recently touching all-time high levels as supply chain constraints have restricted export growth.
b) The second aspect is of export of services and that has seen a sharp slowdown in growth on a sequential basis, although it is still robust on a yoy basis.
c) Primary outflows on account of payments on investments in the form of interest and dividends increased sharply in the quarter, leading to a current account deficit.
Of course, trade remains the key reason. In the last few months, not only have oil imports remained at elevated levels but even gold imports were driven higher by persistent demand from jewellers in the midst of the festival season.
How the current account dipped into deficit in Sep-21 quarter
It may be recollected that India had reported current account surplus in FY21, due to the $35 billion surplus generated in Jun-20 and Sep-20 quarters. COVID 2.0 did help India revert to a current account surplus in the Jun-21 quarter. As imports picked up steam in Sep-21 quarter and exports were largely flat to lower, the current account dipped into a deficit.
Data Source: RBI
The dip in the current account from a surplus of $6.6 billion in Jun-21 quarter to a deficit of $9.6 billion in Sep-21 was an outcome of weak trade data. The merchandise deficit surged from $30.70 billion in Jun-21 quarter to $44.40 billion in Sep-21 quarter. Imports are showing signs of getting closer to $550 billion in FY22, but exports could remain flat. Weak growth in services exports has not helped matter.
However, there have been other pressure points too. The primary account consisting of net interest outflows has risen sharply from $7.60 billion in Jun-21 quarter to $9.70 billion in Sep-21 quarter. That contributed significantly to the pressure on the current account forcing the current account to dip from a surplus to a deficit.
How will trade pressure CAD in Dec-21 quarter?
One of the most significant influencers of the CAD is the combined deficit of merchandise trade and services trade. We have captured the data till Nov-21, i.e. 2 months after the reported Sep-21 quarter CAD. For FY22 (Apr-Nov), combined deficit of merchandise and services trade stood at $(-54.21) billion. The sharply higher merchandise trade deficit, widened the combined deficit by $14.30 billion from $(-39.91) billion in Oct-21 to $(-54.21) billion in Nov-21.
Data Source: DGFT (# - DGFT estimates due to 1-month lag in RBI reporting)
The combined deficit (merchandise + services) in first 8 months of FY22 is already 4.25 times the FY21 full year figure and could widen further in Dec-21. Based on these total trade indications, it looks like the current account deficit could only widen and deepen in the Dec-21 quarter.
Major takeaways from the current account data for Sep-21 quarter
Here are some 4 key takeaways from the current account data for Sep-21 quarter.
India had reported record levels of current account surplus of $19.79 billion and $15.51 billion in Jun-20 and Sep-20 quarters respectively. Sep-21, in a way, is back to reality. The chart captures how the current account deficit has panned out over last 12 quarters.
Chart Source: RBI
For the Sep-21 quarter, the current account dipped to a deficit of $9.6 billion from a surplus of $6.6 billion in the Jun-21 quarter. There were 3 key reasons for the current account again dipping into deficit in Sep-21 quarter.
a) Firstly, the merchandise trade deficit has consistently widened with the figure recently touching all-time high levels as supply chain constraints have restricted export growth.
b) The second aspect is of export of services and that has seen a sharp slowdown in growth on a sequential basis, although it is still robust on a yoy basis.
c) Primary outflows on account of payments on investments in the form of interest and dividends increased sharply in the quarter, leading to a current account deficit.
Of course, trade remains the key reason. In the last few months, not only have oil imports remained at elevated levels but even gold imports were driven higher by persistent demand from jewellers in the midst of the festival season.
How the current account dipped into deficit in Sep-21 quarter
It may be recollected that India had reported current account surplus in FY21, due to the $35 billion surplus generated in Jun-20 and Sep-20 quarters. COVID 2.0 did help India revert to a current account surplus in the Jun-21 quarter. As imports picked up steam in Sep-21 quarter and exports were largely flat to lower, the current account dipped into a deficit.
| Pressure on Current Account (CA) | Amount | Boosting the Current Account (CA) | Amount |
| Q2 Trade Deficit | ($44.40 bn) | Q2 Export of Services | +$25.60 bn |
| Primary A/C - Interest | ($9.70 bn) | Secondary Income | +$18.90 bn |
| Negative Thrust on CA | (-54.10 bn) | Positive Thrust on CA | +$44.50 bn |
| Current Account Deficit | (-$9.60 bn) |
The dip in the current account from a surplus of $6.6 billion in Jun-21 quarter to a deficit of $9.6 billion in Sep-21 was an outcome of weak trade data. The merchandise deficit surged from $30.70 billion in Jun-21 quarter to $44.40 billion in Sep-21 quarter. Imports are showing signs of getting closer to $550 billion in FY22, but exports could remain flat. Weak growth in services exports has not helped matter.
However, there have been other pressure points too. The primary account consisting of net interest outflows has risen sharply from $7.60 billion in Jun-21 quarter to $9.70 billion in Sep-21 quarter. That contributed significantly to the pressure on the current account forcing the current account to dip from a surplus to a deficit.
How will trade pressure CAD in Dec-21 quarter?
One of the most significant influencers of the CAD is the combined deficit of merchandise trade and services trade. We have captured the data till Nov-21, i.e. 2 months after the reported Sep-21 quarter CAD. For FY22 (Apr-Nov), combined deficit of merchandise and services trade stood at $(-54.21) billion. The sharply higher merchandise trade deficit, widened the combined deficit by $14.30 billion from $(-39.91) billion in Oct-21 to $(-54.21) billion in Nov-21.
| Particulars | Exports FY22 ($ bn) | Imports FY22 ($ bn) | Surplus / Deficit ($ bn) |
| Merchandise trade | $263.57 bn | $384.34 bn | $(-120.77) bn |
| Services Trade # | $155.17 bn | $88.61 bn | $+66.56 bn |
| Overall Trade | $418.74 bn | $472.95 bn | $(-54.21) bn |
The combined deficit (merchandise + services) in first 8 months of FY22 is already 4.25 times the FY21 full year figure and could widen further in Dec-21. Based on these total trade indications, it looks like the current account deficit could only widen and deepen in the Dec-21 quarter.
Major takeaways from the current account data for Sep-21 quarter
Here are some 4 key takeaways from the current account data for Sep-21 quarter.
- The trade deficit for the Sep-21 was nearly 44.6% higher on a sequential basis as COVID 2.0 eased substantially resulting in pick-up in imports.
- However, the exports are not keeping pace as they are facing practical constraints like order flows, infrastructure bottlenecks and availability of containers.
- The primary outflows had tapered in the Jun-21 quarter but that has reversed with a sharp rise in Sep-21 quarter, adding to the CAD.
- With GDP growth being driven by trade, as evinced by the Sep-21 quarter GDP data, it is clear that the trade deficit will continue to put pressure on the current account position.
India's current account deficit narrows to $13.4 bn in Mar-22 quarter
- India Infoline News Service
- 27 Jun , 2022
- 9:49 AM
Surprisingly, the current account deficit narrowed from $22.16 billion in December 2021 quarter to $13.40 billion in March 2022 quarter. This was largely on account of moderation of the trade deficit and lower net outgo of primary income (which is largely the interest costs). We will come back to this point later.
In the last 12 quarters, India reported a current account deficit in 8 quarters and a current account surplus in 4 quarters. Three out of these four quarters of current account surplus were at the peak of the COVID crisis when the imports had sharply dipped amidst zero economic activity in India. The other time India had reported a current account surplus was in June 2021 when COVID had reared its head violently. Ironically, in India, current account surplus has been synonymous with bad times while a current account deficit has been synonymous with relatively better times.
Chart Source: RBI
Why the current account deficit narrowed in March 2022 quarter?
For the March 2022 quarter, the current account deficit eased sequentially from $22.16 billion to $13.40billion. This marks the third successive month of current account deficit. There were 3 key reasons for the current account deficit narrowing in the Q4FY22.
How the current account looks like in March 2022 quarter
In FY21, India had reported a small current account surplus due to the $35 billion surplus generated in Jun-20 and Sep-20 quarters.
However, as imports picked up steam since then, trade deficit and the current account deficit have gradually widened. Here is a break-up of the current account deficit in the March 2022 quarter.
Data Source: RBI
The current account deficit in March 2022 has been $7.76 billion lower than in December 2021. This is largely on account of lower merchandise trade deficit, lower primary account outflows and a marginally higher services trade surplus. However, if you look at the current run rate of imports, total merchandise trade deficit could cross $250 billion in FY23. That is going to put a lot of pressure on the current account deficit and there is no way the services trade can meaningfully mitigate that effect.
Current Account Deficit for fiscal year FY22
When the RBI announced the current account numbers for the fourth quarter, it also announced the numbers for the full year FY22. Here are
key current account takeaways for FY22.
Will merchandise trade be the villain in June 2022 quarter?
The cumulative overall trade deficit combining merchandise and services trade stood at $(8.08) billion in April 2022 but burgeoned to $(27.30) billion in May 2022. That represents a sharp increase of $19.22 billion to overall deficit (trade plus services) in just the last one month. At the existing run rate, the overall deficit could end up closer to $150 billion and could pose a real challenge to the current account deficit (CAD) levels in FY23.
Data Source: DGFT (# - DGFT estimates due to 1-month lag in RBI reporting)
How does this figure look in comparison? India closed FY21 with combined deficit of $-12.75 billion or $1.06 billion a month. The combined deficit in FY22 was $-87.79 billion, or $7.32 billion a month. If you consider the first 2 months of FY23, India could close FY23 with an overall deficit in the vicinity of $150 billion, substantially higher than FY22. That is likely to put a lot of pressure on the current account, with its concomitant impact on the rupee value and also on the sovereign ratings.
In the last 12 quarters, India reported a current account deficit in 8 quarters and a current account surplus in 4 quarters. Three out of these four quarters of current account surplus were at the peak of the COVID crisis when the imports had sharply dipped amidst zero economic activity in India. The other time India had reported a current account surplus was in June 2021 when COVID had reared its head violently. Ironically, in India, current account surplus has been synonymous with bad times while a current account deficit has been synonymous with relatively better times.
Chart Source: RBI
Why the current account deficit narrowed in March 2022 quarter?
For the March 2022 quarter, the current account deficit eased sequentially from $22.16 billion to $13.40billion. This marks the third successive month of current account deficit. There were 3 key reasons for the current account deficit narrowing in the Q4FY22.
- Firstly, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed from $-60.4 billion in the Dec-21 quarter to $-54.5 billion in March 2022 quarter. This was largely on account of exports keeping pace with the rise in imports and higher crude prices.
- For the March 2022 quarter, the services surplus improved sequentially from $27.8 billion to $28.3 billion. This combined with the lower trade deficit helped the cause of reduction in current account deficit sequentially.
- Primary outflows on account of payments on investments in the form of interest and dividends fell sharply on a sequential basis from $11.70 billion to $8.40 billion.
How the current account looks like in March 2022 quarter
In FY21, India had reported a small current account surplus due to the $35 billion surplus generated in Jun-20 and Sep-20 quarters.
However, as imports picked up steam since then, trade deficit and the current account deficit have gradually widened. Here is a break-up of the current account deficit in the March 2022 quarter.
| Pressure on Current Account (CA) | Amount | Boosting the Current Account (CA) | Amount |
| Q4 Trade Deficit | ($54.50 bn) | Q4 Services Surplus | +$28.30 bn |
| Primary A/C - Interest | ($8.40 bn) | Secondary Income | +$21.20 bn |
| Negative Thrust on CA | (-62.90 bn) | Positive Thrust on CA | +$49.50 bn |
| Current Account Deficit | (-$13.40 bn) |
The current account deficit in March 2022 has been $7.76 billion lower than in December 2021. This is largely on account of lower merchandise trade deficit, lower primary account outflows and a marginally higher services trade surplus. However, if you look at the current run rate of imports, total merchandise trade deficit could cross $250 billion in FY23. That is going to put a lot of pressure on the current account deficit and there is no way the services trade can meaningfully mitigate that effect.
Current Account Deficit for fiscal year FY22
When the RBI announced the current account numbers for the fourth quarter, it also announced the numbers for the full year FY22. Here are
key current account takeaways for FY22.
- Total current account deficit for FY22 stood at $-38.7 billion as compared to a current account surplus of $24 billion in FY21.
- Effectively, the current account as a percentage of GDP moved from a surplus ratio of 0.9% in FY21 to a deficit ratio of -1.2% in FY22.
- The biggest contributor to the current account deficit in FY22 was the merchant trade deficit at $189.5 billion. However, this was partially compensated by the full year services trade surplus of $107.5 billion in FY22.
- Primary outflows in FY22 were higher at $37.3 billion on account of interest and dividend payments. This was more than compensated by a 10% spike in secondary income in fiscal FY22.
- The current account deficit of $-38.7 billion was largely offset by net capital inflows of $38.2 billion during FY22. The heavy FPI outflows were more than compensated by heavy inflows via the FDI route as well as a surge in banking capital.
- For FY22, when the impact of the current account and the capital account flows were combined, the gross accretion to forex reserves was $47.5 billion. However, out of this, $17.2 billion was reduced on account of valuation changes in non-dollar holdings. As a result the net accretion to the forex reserves was just about $30.3 billion in FY22.
Will merchandise trade be the villain in June 2022 quarter?
The cumulative overall trade deficit combining merchandise and services trade stood at $(8.08) billion in April 2022 but burgeoned to $(27.30) billion in May 2022. That represents a sharp increase of $19.22 billion to overall deficit (trade plus services) in just the last one month. At the existing run rate, the overall deficit could end up closer to $150 billion and could pose a real challenge to the current account deficit (CAD) levels in FY23.
| Particulars | Exports FY23 ($ bn) | Imports FY23 ($ bn) | Surplus / Deficit ($ bn) |
| Merchandise trade | $78.72 bn | $123.41 bn | $(-44.69) bn |
| Services Trade # | $45.87 bn | $28.48 bn | $+17.39 bn |
| Overall Trade | $124.59 bn | $151.89 bn | $(-27.30) bn |
How does this figure look in comparison? India closed FY21 with combined deficit of $-12.75 billion or $1.06 billion a month. The combined deficit in FY22 was $-87.79 billion, or $7.32 billion a month. If you consider the first 2 months of FY23, India could close FY23 with an overall deficit in the vicinity of $150 billion, substantially higher than FY22. That is likely to put a lot of pressure on the current account, with its concomitant impact on the rupee value and also on the sovereign ratings.
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- 03 January, 2022 |
- 5:22 AM
India had reported record levels of current account surplus of $19.79 billion and $15.51 billion in Jun-20 and Sep-20 quarters respectively.
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