April trade deficit widens to $26.42 Billion, highest since Nov-24

16 May 2025 , 09:55 AM

INDIA APRIL 2025 TRADE – DATA CHECK

For April 2025, merchandise trade deficit widened sharply to $26.42 Billion, the highest since November 2024. There was some front-ending of imports with the uncertainty over the tariff regime. Crude imports have risen sharply in last 1 year as cheap oil from Russia has reduced. Also, the electronics imports to support India’s export engine is proving a drag.

Key contributors to exports in April 2025 were Engineering Goods $9.51 Billion (+11.3%), Petroleum Products $7.38 Billion (+4.7%), Electronic Goods $3.69 Billion (+39.5%), Gems & Jewellery $2.50 Billion (+10.7%), Drugs & Pharmaceuticals $2.49 Billion (+2.4%), and Organic & Inorganic Chemicals $2.27 Billion (-9.1%). Key import contributors were crude & petroleum products $20.72 Billion (+25.6%), Electronic Goods $9.25 Billion (+31.2%), Machinery $4.67 Billion (+23.2%), Gold $3.10 Billion (+4.9%), Coal, Coke, Briquettes $2.71 Billion (-12.3%), and Transport Equipment $2.60 Billion (-3.2%).

Top export destinations for April 2025 were United States $8.42 Billion, United Arab Emirates (UAE) $3.45 Billion, the Netherlands $2.04 Billion, China $1.41 Billion, and Singapore $1.16 Billion. Top import origins for April 2025 were China $9.91 Billion, Russia $6.23 Billion, UAE $6.24 Billion, United States $5.24 Billion, Iraq $2.97 Billion, Saudi Arabia $2.95 Billion, and Japan $1.82 Billion.

HOW MERCHANDISE TRADE EVOLVED IN LAST 1 YEAR

Here is the monthly data of merchandise exports, imports, and trade deficit.

Monthly Data	Exports ($ Billion)	Imports ($ Billion)	Total Trade ($ Billion)	Trade Deficit ($ Billion)
Apr-24	34.99	54.09	89.08	-19.10
May-24	38.13	61.91	100.04	-23.78
Jun-24	35.20	56.18	91.38	-20.98
Jul-24	33.98	57.48	91.46	-23.50
Aug-24	34.71	64.36	99.07	-29.65
Sep-24	34.58	55.36	89.94	-20.78
Oct-24	39.20	66.34	105.54	-27.14
Nov-24 #	32.03	63.86	95.89	-31.83
Dec-24	38.01	59.95	97.96	-21.94
Jan-25	36.43	59.42	95.85	-22.99
Feb-25	36.91	50.96	87.87	-14.05
Mar-25	41.97	63.51	105.48	-21.54
Apr-25	38.49	64.91	103.40	-26.42

Data Source: DGFT (# – All time high trade deficit)

How do trade figures compare with 12-month averages. Over last 12 months, the average merchandise exports stood at $63.35 Billion, while average merchandise imports stood at $59.45 Billion. For April 2025 exports and imports are above 1-year averages. The average trade deficit in last 12 months stood at $(23.11) Billion; with the April 2025 trade deficit clearly higher at $(26.42) Billion. In April 2025, total trade at $103.40 Billion was above the previous 12-month average of $95.80 Billion.

TRADE GAP – EXPORT BOOSTERS AND IMPORT TRIMMERS

Here are star export performers in April 2025, on percentage increase in exports yoy. Tobacco (+66.4%), Coffee (+47.9%), Electronic Goods (+39.5%), Mica / Coal / Ores (+34.4%), Fruits & Vegetables (+30.7%), Marine Products (+17.8%), Tea (+15.9%), Meat / Dairy / Poultry (+15.9%), and Textiles (+14.4%) were the key export growth drivers in April 2025.  Major import trimmers in April 2025 were Pulses (-23.5%), Newsprint (-14.4%), Coal / Coke / Briquettes (-12.3%), Fruits & Vegetables (-9.0%), Vegetable Oils (-8.1%), and Leather Products (-4.8%).

TRADE DATA BREAK-UP FOR APRIL 2025

Here is a break up of the merchandise and services export and import data for April 2025, with comparable figures.

Macro Variables (Trade Related)	Apr-25 ($ Billion)	Mar-25 ($ Billion)	Apr-24 ($ Billion)	Change YOY (%)
Merchandise Exports	38.49	41.97	35.30	9.04%
Merchandise Imports	64.91	63.51	54.49	19.12%
Total Merchandise Trade	103.40	105.48	89.79	15.16%
Merchandise Trade Deficit	-26.42	-21.54	-19.19	37.68%
Services Exports	35.31	31.64	30.18	17.00%
Services Imports	17.54	13.73	16.76	4.65%
Total Services Trade	52.85	45.37	46.94	12.59%
Services Trade Surplus	17.77	17.91	13.42	32.41%
Combined Exports	73.80	73.61	65.48	12.71%
Combined  Imports	82.45	77.24	71.25	15.72%
Overall Trade Volume	156.25	150.85	136.73	14.28%
Overall Trade Deficit	-8.65	-3.63	-5.77	49.91%

Data Source: DGFT and RBI

What is the big picture? For April 2025, it is a net deficit of $(8.65) Billion. The services trade surplus did grow by 32.4%, but the merchandise trade deficit widened by 37.7% resulting in a much higher overall deficit for the month. This could, however, be attributed to the front-ending of imports ahead of likely tariff changes. The services surplus could only offset 67.3% of the merchandise trade deficit. However, the good news is that services exports have now touched 91.7% of merchandise exports. This can also be attributed to merchandise exports getting stuck in a range.

These are early days for full year current account deficit projections, and that would become clearer after we have minimum one quarter of data. However, the first thing to look forward to is the CAD for FY25, which is likely to be announced in the last week of June 2025.