Market outlook for the week (14-Jul to 18-Jul,2025)

15 Jul 2025 , 11:08 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR THE WEEK TO JULY 11, 2025

The week to July 11, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex losing -1.22% and -1.12% respectively. During the week, FPIs were net buyers in Indian equities worth $614 Million, but there is an element of cautious optimism in markets. Here are 20 key sectors for the week.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (11-Jul)	Index (04-Jul)
Nifty FMCG	2.15%	55,910.25	54,735.60
Nifty MNC	0.13%	28,939.85	28,902.75
Nifty Private Banks	0.03%	28,075.20	28,065.85
Nifty Banks	-0.49%	56,754.70	57,031.90
Nifty CPSE	-0.67%	6,576.40	6,620.45
Nifty Non-Banks	-0.78%	29,956.35	30,193.35
Nifty Realty	-0.93%	962.90	971.95
Nifty Mobility	-1.10%	20,779.80	21,010.05
Nifty Healthcare	-1.71%	14,463.75	14,716.10
Nifty PSU Banks	-1.78%	7,025.75	7,152.95
Nifty Infrastructure	-1.88%	9,256.75	9,433.95
Nifty Oil & Gas	-2.02%	11,759.50	12,002.35
Nifty Automobiles	-2.03%	23,493.80	23,980.40
Nifty Metals	-2.06%	9,382.85	9,580.40
Nifty Chemicals	-2.18%	30,928.99	31,618.19
Nifty India Digital	-2.30%	9,000.70	9,212.35
Nifty Consumer Durables	-2.90%	38,099.35	39,238.10
Nifty Capital Markets	-3.38%	4,477.00	4,633.65
Nifty IT	-3.76%	37,693.25	39,166.55
Nifty India Defence	-4.79%	8,512.30	8,940.45

Data Source: NSE

Out of 20 key sectors, only 3 sectors delivered positive returns and 17 gave negative returns for the week. The star theme was FMCG sector after the guidance indicated at a pick-up in urban demand. Losers included Defence, IT, and Capital Markets. Out of 17 losing sectors, 13 fell more than 1%, while 9 sectors fell more than 2%, and 3 sectors fell over 3%.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at -1.62%. The top 5 sectors delivered 0.23% returns, while top 10 sectors gave returns of -0.51%. Bottom 10 sectors delivered -2.73% on average. Despite the tariff deadline being postponed to August, markets are wary of the trade deal and also the market liquidity crunch due to the impact of Jane Street.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

The Fed minutes hinted that rate cuts may only happen in the US towards the end of the year, so it gives some breathing room for RBI. Also, the flows into mutual funds continued to be robust, with equity funds and hybrid funds dominating the inflows. The government is going aggressive in boosting the production of rare earth magnets, even as the central government will compensate up to ₹35,000 Crore to OMCs for LPG under-recoveries.

On the downside, the trade deal continues to be elusive despite the tariff deadline being put off to August 01, 2025. Also, the Jane Street case is having its impact on the market volumes. In the first round of results, TCS results may not have been bad; but the pressure on top line was apparent. That did not go down well with IT stocks. Meanwhile, attempts made by Zee promoters to hike stake through warrants was struck down by shareholders.

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO JULY 18, 2025

Here are key triggers that could influence stock markets next week.

• The markets will enter next week with macro headwinds like uncertainty over the trade deal and the Jane Street case. The trade deal is likely to be impacted with India also proposing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports. This will be closely watched.
• The coming week will see big inflation numbers. India will announce its CPI and WPI inflation; with CPI inflation expected to fall further to 2.4% for June 2025. The US BLS will also announce the June consumer inflation, which could see impact of tariff hikes.
• The all-important trade data for June and for the first quarter of FY26 will be announced in the coming week. The focus will be on the trade deficit and services surplus for June. This comes in the wake of better than expected CAD for FY25 at just 0.6% of GDP.
• The results season is likely to gather steam next week. Big IT names like Tech Mahindra, Wipro, and HCL Tech will put out results. Among BFSI companies, ICICI Pru, ICICI Lombard, HDFC Life, HDFC AMC, and HDB Financial will be the results to watch out.
• Key global data points. Redbook, FOMC Speak, Crude Stocks, PPI, Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization, IIP, and Jobless Claims (US). IIP, Trade Deficit, CPI (EU); Core CPI, IIP, Trade Surplus (Japan); New Loans, GDP, IIP (China); CPI, Unemployment (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to July 18, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX tapered this week from 12.33 to 11.82 levels, as global risks abated, but trade deal uncertainty mounted. VIX may not have further downsides from here.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,150 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 25,078 and major support at 24,885. Immediate resistance is at 25,272 and later at 25,465. Nifty remains a Short trade, unless it breaks above 25,415 with volumes. Longs only above that!
• Sensex closed the week at 82,500 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 82,282 and major support at 81,683. Immediate resistance is at 82,880 and later at 83,479. Sensex remains a Short trade, till it breaks above 83,367 with volumes. Longs only below that!

The entire focus in the coming week would be on the Indo-US trade deal progress, the Jane Street case and of course, the key inflation data from India and the US.