Market outlook for the week (23-Jun to 27-Jun, 2025)

23 Jun 2025 , 10:55 AM

SECTORAL STORY FOR THE WEEK TO JUNE 20, 2025

The week to June 20, 2025 saw Nifty and Sensex gaining 1.59% each. During the week, FPIs were net buyers in Indian equities worth $139 Million; but the geopolitical situation and Trump tariffs continue to pose a risk. Here are 20 key sectors for the week.

Sectoral Index	Weekly Returns	Index (13-Jun)	Index (06-Jun)
Nifty Infrastructure	1.77%	9,130.55	8,971.95
Nifty Private Banks	1.64%	27,978.90	27,527.90
Nifty Automobiles	1.51%	23,679.35	23,327.40
Nifty India Digital	1.38%	9,111.65	8,987.75
Nifty IT	1.36%	38,991.45	38,469.25
Nifty Banks	1.31%	56,252.85	55,527.35
Nifty India Defence	1.10%	8,888.45	8,791.60
Nifty CPSE	0.99%	6,593.95	6,529.50
Nifty Capital Markets	0.97%	4,479.40	4,436.30
Nifty Realty	0.66%	1,013.65	1,007.05
Nifty Consumer Durables	0.54%	36,926.20	36,726.65
Nifty Mobility	0.51%	20,360.95	20,258.50
Nifty FMCG	0.19%	54,630.95	54,527.15
Nifty Oil & Gas	0.16%	11,462.10	11,443.60
Nifty MNC	0.09%	28,210.05	28,184.30
Nifty Non-Banks	-0.04%	29,689.65	29,702.45
Nifty Chemicals	-1.16%	30,262.20	30,618.12
Nifty Metals	-1.30%	9,138.60	9,258.80
Nifty PSU Banks	-1.30%	6,844.75	6,934.85
Nifty Healthcare	-1.51%	14,112.95	14,328.65

Data Source: NSE

Out of 20 key sectors, 15 sectors delivered positive returns with only 5 sectors giving negative returns. The positive theme was about the India consumption and investment stories like infrastructure, banking, autos, and digital. Losers for the week were global plays like chemicals, metals, and healthcare. Out of 5 losing sectors, 4 sectors fell more than 1%.

Average returns of the 20 sectors stood at 0.44%. The top 5 sectors delivered 1.53% returns, while top 10 sectors gave average returns of 1.27%. The bottom 10 sectors delivered -0.38% on average. The positive macro indications from WPI and MPC minutes led to a rally on Friday, but overall, the market moves were in a relatively narrow range.

WEEK THAT WAS; THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE UGLY

Amidst the uncertainty, there were some positives that seeped through. The core sector growth for May was subdued at 0.71%, but the upward revision to April was a boost. WPI inflation at 0.38% is a clear indication that cost pressures on Indian corporates is gradually reducing. Above all, the MPC minutes underlined that inflation would remain low, although the RBI rate moves would be more calibrated and data driven, going ahead.

In a volatile market situation, there were concerns too. Trade deficit, despite being lower, points to pressure on CAD for FY26. The situation in West Asia continues to be grim, with the added risk that the US may get involved. Indian diplomatic relations with the US saw some frigidity this week at the G7 summit, which could delay the trade deal. Above all, the US Fed statement is still at cross purposes with what the political leadership wants!

STOCK MARKET TRIGGERS FOR COMING WEEK TO JUNE 27, 2025

Here are key triggers that could influence stock markets next week.

• There are big data points for India. The CAD will finally be announced for FY25 during the coming week. The headline IIP and the IIP manufacturing for May 2025 will also be put out this week. The manufacturing IIP will specifically be in focus.
• There are 5 IPOs on the mainboard this week with 3 IPOs (HDB Financial, Kalpataru Estates, and Ellenbarrie Industrial Gases) raising bulk of the ₹15,000 crore between them. It remains to be seen if there is enough appetite in the primary markets.
• There are some key data announcements in the US markets this week. The PCE inflation for May 2025 and the final estimate of first quarter GDP will be announced this week. In addition, Fed governor speeches will also be tracked for signals on rate action.
• The big global risk event continues to be the Israel-Iran war as markets are awaiting to see if the US gets more intricately involved in the war. Meanwhile, analysts will also be watching for progress on the Indo-US trade deal, ahead of the 09-July deadline.
• Key global data points. FOMC Speak, PMI, Existing Home Sales, Current Account, Redbook, Crude stocks, Building permits (US). PMI, EU Leaders Summit (EU); PMI, CPI, Retail Sales (Japan); Industrial Profits (China); and PMI, MPC Speak (UK).

What does this mean for Nifty and Sensex levels in the coming week to June 27, 2025.

PARTING THOUGHTS ON NIFTY AND SENSEX LEVELS

VIX tapered sharply from 15.2 levels to 13.6, as much of the global risk factors got normalized into estimates. This could lead to VIX stabilizing around these levels.

• Nifty closed the week at 25,112 Spot. Nifty has immediate support at 24,885 and major support at 24,533. Immediate resistance is at 25,238 and later at 25,590. Nifty remains a long trade, unless it breaks below 24,711 with volumes. Shorts only below that!
• Sensex closed the week at 82,408 Spot. Sensex has immediate support at 81,656 and major support at 80,485. Immediate resistance is at 82,827 and later at 83,999. Sensex remains a long trade, till it breaks below 81,108 with volumes. Shorts only below that!

The coming week has some big data numbers like the US PCE inflation, US GDP, India IIP, India fiscal deficit update etc. However, the big story would be how India fares on the current account deficit front. Of course, geopolitical risk would be the driving force!