Nifty closes February 2025 with deep cuts; but large caps hold fort

6 Mar 2025 , 09:54 AM

NIFTY CLOSES FEBRUARY NEAR THE 22,000 SUPPORT

FPI selling continued almost unabated in February, and despite being a truncated month, the FPIs have now sold close to $13 Billion in Indian equities in year 2025 so far. There are several triggers for the sharp sell-off. Remember, this sell-off comes despite a consumer friendly budget and a dovish monetary policy that cut rates by 25 basis points. The big overhang was the volatile approach of Donald Trump, who has literally intimidated global markets with his extremely volatile economic policies. The correction deepened in February, with absence of buying at lower levels showing an apparent lack of confidence. The Nifty is already down nearly 16% from the peaks, but most stocks are down 30-35%, especially in sectors like IT, FMCG, and capital goods. Let us now turn to the Nifty granular story.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – NIFTY DOWN, BUT HOLDS OUT IN FEBRUARY 2025

With Nifty index down -4.48% in February 2025, there were just 11 gainers and 39 losers in terms of 1-year returns. While the positive side returns were 4.78%, the negative side returns were -7.54%. Here are the top-15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
SHRIRAMFIN	619.00	11.53%	-74.69%	730.45	438.60	41.13%	15.26%
BAJFINANCE	8,546.00	9.93%	31.33%	8,739.00	6,187.80	38.11%	2.21%
HINDALCO	634.00	8.60%	25.90%	772.65	499.00	27.05%	17.94%
TATASTEEL	137.16	4.89%	-2.59%	184.60	122.62	11.86%	25.70%
BAJAJFINSV	1,870.20	4.57%	17.47%	2,029.90	1,419.05	31.79%	7.87%
INDUSINDBK	972.30	4.41%	-32.87%	1,576.35	923.70	5.26%	38.32%
HDFCBANK	1,730.15	3.29%	23.44%	1,880.00	1,397.30	23.82%	7.97%
AXISBANK	1,015.60	3.27%	-5.54%	1,339.65	933.50	8.79%	24.19%
JSWSTEEL	954.00	1.40%	18.82%	1,063.00	761.75	25.24%	10.25%
NESTLEIND	2,196.30	0.41%	-15.66%	2,778.00	2,131.25	3.05%	20.94%
TATACONSUM	966.30	0.33%	-19.02%	1,256.44	882.90	9.45%	23.09%
MARUTI	11,950.00	-0.27%	5.82%	13,680.00	10,725.00	11.42%	12.65%
KOTAKBANK	1,898.45	-0.91%	12.64%	1,994.90	1,543.85	22.97%	4.83%
CIPLA	1,405.00	-1.16%	-4.92%	1,702.05	1,317.25	6.66%	17.45%
BHARTIARTL	1,569.10	-1.89%	39.78%	1,779.00	1,099.00	42.78%	11.80%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 7 BFSI stocks, 3 Metal stocks, and 2 FMCG stocks. The budget and the monetary policy had limited impact; but financial services manged to hold out in February 2025. If you look at the bottom 15, some of the Tata group heavyweights found themselves in the list including Tata Motors, TCS, and Trent. M&M and Tech Mahindra from the Mahindra group also featured at the bottom. The top 10 stocks gave average monthly return of 5.23% while the top 20 stocks averaged 1.82% in February 2025.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR THE YEAR TO FEB-25

With Nifty index 1-Year returns of just 0.65% in February 2025, there were just 19 gainers and 31 losers. While the positive side returns were 17.11%, the negative side returns stood at -21.38%. Here are the top-15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BHARTIARTL	1,569.10	-1.89%	39.78%	1,779.00	1,099.00	42.78%	11.80%
M&M	2,595.00	-11.60%	33.78%	3,270.95	1,788.80	45.07%	20.67%
BAJFINANCE	8,546.00	9.93%	31.33%	8,739.00	6,187.80	38.11%	2.21%
HINDALCO	634.00	8.60%	25.90%	772.65	499.00	27.05%	17.94%
EICHERMOT	4,803.00	-7.90%	25.87%	5,575.50	3,672.00	30.80%	13.86%
TRENT	4,838.65	-13.32%	24.98%	8,345.00	3,750.25	29.02%	42.02%
HDFCBANK	1,730.15	3.29%	23.44%	1,880.00	1,397.30	23.82%	7.97%
BEL	247.25	-7.84%	20.06%	340.50	179.10	38.05%	27.39%
JSWSTEEL	954.00	1.40%	18.82%	1,063.00	761.75	25.24%	10.25%
BAJAJFINSV	1,870.20	4.57%	17.47%	2,029.90	1,419.05	31.79%	7.87%
TECHM	1,485.95	-11.50%	16.80%	1,807.70	1,162.95	27.77%	17.80%
ICICIBANK	1,201.10	-3.80%	14.44%	1,362.35	1,038.50	15.66%	11.84%
KOTAKBANK	1,898.45	-0.91%	12.64%	1,994.90	1,543.85	22.97%	4.83%
MARUTI	11,950.00	-0.27%	5.82%	13,680.00	10,725.00	11.42%	12.65%
GRASIM	2,324.85	-5.99%	5.26%	2,877.75	2,128.60	9.22%	19.21%

Data Source: NSE

Which Nifty stock segments showed best long term returns? The top 15 stocks by 1-year returns had 5 BFSI companies, 3 auto stocks, and 2 metal sector plays. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by the oil plays like BPCL and Reliance; as well as the Adani Group stocks. Auto sector witnessed pressure in terms of annual returns. Top 10 stocks gave average annual return of 26.14% while the top 20 stocks averaged 16.25% in last 1-year.

NIFTY RESILIENCE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING IN FEB-25

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from the 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year was just 3.96%. Out of 50 stocks in the Nifty, none of the stocks even bounced 50% from the lows. A total of 8 stocks have bounced more than 30% and 16 stocks have bounced more than 20%; a sharp deterioration in resilience.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
M&M	2,595.00	-11.60%	33.78%	3,270.95	1,788.80	45.07%	20.67%
BHARTIARTL	1,569.10	-1.89%	39.78%	1,779.00	1,099.00	42.78%	11.80%
SHRIRAMFIN	619.00	11.53%	-74.69%	730.45	438.60	41.13%	15.26%
BAJFINANCE	8,546.00	9.93%	31.33%	8,739.00	6,187.80	38.11%	2.21%
BEL	247.25	-7.84%	20.06%	340.50	179.10	38.05%	27.39%
WIPRO	278.50	-11.14%	-46.46%	324.60	208.50	33.57%	14.20%
BAJAJFINSV	1,870.20	4.57%	17.47%	2,029.90	1,419.05	31.79%	7.87%
EICHERMOT	4,803.00	-7.90%	25.87%	5,575.50	3,672.00	30.80%	13.86%
TRENT	4,838.65	-13.32%	24.98%	8,345.00	3,750.25	29.02%	42.02%
TECHM	1,485.95	-11.50%	16.80%	1,807.70	1,162.95	27.77%	17.80%
HCLTECH	1,576.70	-8.37%	-5.34%	2,012.20	1,235.00	27.67%	21.64%
HINDALCO	634.00	8.60%	25.90%	772.65	499.00	27.05%	17.94%
JSWSTEEL	954.00	1.40%	18.82%	1,063.00	761.75	25.24%	10.25%
INFY	1,693.00	-10.29%	0.82%	2,006.45	1,358.35	24.64%	15.62%
HDFCBANK	1,730.15	3.29%	23.44%	1,880.00	1,397.30	23.82%	7.97%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 4 BFSI stocks, 4 IT stocks, and 2 each from Autos and Metals. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by several marquee stocks like (Asian Paints, Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto, Reliance, TCS, Britannia, and L&T). Heavyweights have had a major impact in weakening the undertone of the bounce. The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 35.81% while the top 20 stocks averaged 28.58% bounce in the last 1 year.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high. Lower the gap, higher the swing factor. Nifty had a disappointing swing factor of 15.80%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, only 2 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while a total of 4 stocks are less than 10% away. Swing has deteriorated sharply in January and February 2025.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BAJFINANCE	8,546.00	9.93%	31.33%	8,739.00	6,187.80	38.11%	2.21%
KOTAKBANK	1,898.45	-0.91%	12.64%	1,994.90	1,543.85	22.97%	4.83%
BAJAJFINSV	1,870.20	4.57%	17.47%	2,029.90	1,419.05	31.79%	7.87%
HDFCBANK	1,730.15	3.29%	23.44%	1,880.00	1,397.30	23.82%	7.97%
JSWSTEEL	954.00	1.40%	18.82%	1,063.00	761.75	25.24%	10.25%
BHARTIARTL	1,569.10	-1.89%	39.78%	1,779.00	1,099.00	42.78%	11.80%
ICICIBANK	1,201.10	-3.80%	14.44%	1,362.35	1,038.50	15.66%	11.84%
MARUTI	11,950.00	-0.27%	5.82%	13,680.00	10,725.00	11.42%	12.65%
EICHERMOT	4,803.00	-7.90%	25.87%	5,575.50	3,672.00	30.80%	13.86%
WIPRO	278.50	-11.14%	-46.46%	324.60	208.50	33.57%	14.20%
SHRIRAMFIN	619.00	11.53%	-74.69%	730.45	438.60	41.13%	15.26%
INFY	1,693.00	-10.29%	0.82%	2,006.45	1,358.35	24.64%	15.62%
ULTRACEMCO	10,089.25	-12.27%	2.39%	12,145.35	9,250.00	9.07%	16.93%
CIPLA	1,405.00	-1.16%	-4.92%	1,702.05	1,317.25	6.66%	17.45%
TECHM	1,485.95	-11.50%	16.80%	1,807.70	1,162.95	27.77%	17.80%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 6 Financials, 3 IT stocks, 2 Auto stocks, and 2 Commodity stocks.  If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by stocks like Tata Motors, Adani Enterprises, Trent, and Hero Moto. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 9.75% while the top 20 stocks averaged 13.79% for February 2025. The sharp correction in Nifty has led to sharp deterioration in the Nifty Swing factor.