Nifty closes March 2025 in the Green; but event risks linger

2 Apr 2025 , 09:28 AM

FISCAL YEAR-END BUYING PULLS UP THE NIFTY 50

The 6.3% rally in the Nifty 50 in March 2025 was a welcome change after the massive selling in the first two months of 2025. While FPI selling in March 2025 was subdued at $410 Million, the FPI selling in FY2025 has been to the tune of $13.4 Billion. This was partially compensated by inflows into debt, but FPIs remained sellers on a net basis in FY25. While much of the positive action in the Nifty came from the MSCI rebalancing, the event risks still remain. West Asia continues to simmer, while the US reciprocal tariffs take effect from April 02, 2025. We have already seen the impact of 25% tariffs on Indian auto stocks, and a much broader tariff regime would surely put pressure on Indian markets.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – NIFTY GIVES POSITIVE SIGNALS IN MARCH 2025

With Nifty index UP 6.30% in March 2025, there were 42 gainers and just 8 losers in terms of 1-year returns. While the positive side returns were 8.60%, the negative side returns were -8.13%, largely due to IndusInd Bank fiasco. Here are the top-15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BEL	301.33	22.36%	49.54%	340.50	198.00	52.19%	11.50%
POWERGRID	290.40	15.75%	4.86%	366.25	247.30	17.43%	20.71%
NTPC	358.00	14.82%	6.49%	448.45	292.80	22.27%	20.17%
KOTAKBANK	2,174.00	14.10%	21.60%	2,202.50	1,543.85	40.82%	1.29%
ULTRACEMCO	11,481.10	13.64%	18.06%	12,145.35	9,250.00	24.12%	5.47%
GRASIM	2,605.50	13.20%	14.16%	2,877.75	2,171.60	19.98%	9.46%
HDFCLIFE	684.00	12.69%	8.27%	761.20	511.40	33.75%	10.14%
TATASTEEL	153.98	12.42%	-1.03%	184.60	122.62	25.57%	16.59%
EICHERMOT	5,345.25	12.03%	33.05%	5,575.50	3,886.10	37.55%	4.13%
SBIN	771.20	12.01%	2.55%	912.00	680.00	13.41%	15.44%
ICICIBANK	1,348.00	11.98%	23.33%	1,373.00	1,048.10	28.61%	1.82%
JSWSTEEL	1,060.00	11.83%	28.07%	1,074.90	815.40	30.00%	1.39%
ADANIPORTS	1,180.50	10.62%	-11.84%	1,621.40	995.65	18.57%	27.19%
ADANIENT	2,316.65	10.49%	-27.57%	3,743.90	2,025.00	14.40%	38.12%
BHARTIARTL	1,727.40	10.39%	41.09%	1,779.00	1,183.10	46.01%	2.90%

Data Source: NSE

Which are the sectors that showed momentum in the last one month? The top 15 stocks had 3 PSU stocks, 3 Banking stocks, and 4 Commodity stocks. The rate cut in February provided an impetus and there are expectations of another rate cut in April. Of course, the Nifty rally was largely due to MSCI index rebalancing. If you look at the bottom 15, IndusInd saw deep cuts; while other losers are from the IT space and auto space (post 25% tariffs). The top 10 stocks gave average monthly return of 14.30% while the top 20 stocks averaged 12.34% in March 2025.

LONGER TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR YEAR TO MARCH 2025

With Nifty index 1-Year returns at 5.34% in March 2025, there were just 28 gainers and 22 losers. While the positive side returns were 18.09%, the negative side were -18.69%. Here are the top-15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BEL	301.33	22.36%	49.54%	340.50	198.00	52.19%	11.50%
BHARTIARTL	1,727.40	10.39%	41.09%	1,779.00	1,183.10	46.01%	2.90%
M&M	2,661.15	3.12%	38.75%	3,270.95	1,855.30	43.44%	18.64%
TRENT	5,306.05	9.76%	34.88%	8,345.00	3,843.00	38.07%	36.42%
EICHERMOT	5,345.25	12.03%	33.05%	5,575.50	3,886.10	37.55%	4.13%
JSWSTEEL	1,060.00	11.83%	28.07%	1,074.90	815.40	30.00%	1.39%
HDFCBANK	1,825.50	5.53%	26.27%	1,880.00	1,421.25	28.44%	2.90%
BAJFINANCE	8,929.90	4.87%	23.47%	9,260.05	6,375.70	40.06%	3.57%
ICICIBANK	1,348.00	11.98%	23.33%	1,373.00	1,048.10	28.61%	1.82%
BAJAJFINSV	2,002.30	7.21%	22.11%	2,029.90	1,419.05	41.10%	1.36%
HINDALCO	682.00	7.58%	21.81%	772.65	555.30	22.82%	11.73%
KOTAKBANK	2,174.00	14.10%	21.60%	2,202.50	1,543.85	40.82%	1.29%
ULTRACEMCO	11,481.10	13.64%	18.06%	12,145.35	9,250.00	24.12%	5.47%
GRASIM	2,605.50	13.20%	14.16%	2,877.75	2,171.60	19.98%	9.46%
TECHM	1,415.00	-4.68%	13.63%	1,807.70	1,162.95	21.67%	21.72%

Data Source: NSE

Which Nifty stock segments showed best long term returns? The top 15 stocks by 1-year returns had 5 BFSI companies, 4 Commodity stocks, and 2 auto plays. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated once again by IT and Autos. While IT has concerns over dollar revenue growth, for autos it is all about the 25% tariffs imposed by the US. Top 10 stocks gave average annual return of 32.06% while the top 20 stocks averaged 22.38% in last 1-year.

NIFTY RESILIENCE STRENGTHENS IN MAR-25

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from the 52-Week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year was 10.52%. Out of 50 stocks in the Nifty, just one stock bounced over 50% from the lows. A total of 12 stocks have bounced more than 30% and 22 stocks have bounced more than 20%.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
BEL	301.33	22.36%	49.54%	340.50	198.00	52.19%	11.50%
SHRIRAMFIN	656.25	6.27%	-72.20%	730.45	438.60	49.62%	10.16%
BHARTIARTL	1,727.40	10.39%	41.09%	1,779.00	1,183.10	46.01%	2.90%
M&M	2,661.15	3.12%	38.75%	3,270.95	1,855.30	43.44%	18.64%
BAJAJFINSV	2,002.30	7.21%	22.11%	2,029.90	1,419.05	41.10%	1.36%
KOTAKBANK	2,174.00	14.10%	21.60%	2,202.50	1,543.85	40.82%	1.29%
BAJFINANCE	8,929.90	4.87%	23.47%	9,260.05	6,375.70	40.06%	3.57%
TRENT	5,306.05	9.76%	34.88%	8,345.00	3,843.00	38.07%	36.42%
EICHERMOT	5,345.25	12.03%	33.05%	5,575.50	3,886.10	37.55%	4.13%
ZOMATO	201.20	-9.19%	10.76%	304.70	146.30	37.53%	33.97%
HDFCLIFE	684.00	12.69%	8.27%	761.20	511.40	33.75%	10.14%
JSWSTEEL	1,060.00	11.83%	28.07%	1,074.90	815.40	30.00%	1.39%
HCLTECH	1,591.00	1.11%	3.17%	2,012.20	1,235.00	28.83%	20.93%
ICICIBANK	1,348.00	11.98%	23.33%	1,373.00	1,048.10	28.61%	1.82%
HDFCBANK	1,825.50	5.53%	26.27%	1,880.00	1,421.25	28.44%	2.90%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best resilience in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 7 BFSI stocks and 2 Auto stocks. If you look at the bottom 15, it was dominated by several marquee FMCG stocks like (Titan, Hindustan Lever, ITC, and Nestle). Incidentally, BEL topped the rankings in 1-month returns, 1-year returns, and resilience. The top 10 stocks gave average bounce of 42.64% while the top 20 stocks averaged 35.02% bounce from the yearly lows.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high. Lower the gap, higher the swing factor. Nifty had a disappointing swing factor of 10.5%. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 8 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while a total of 10 stocks are less than 10% away. Swing has marginally improved in March 2025.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
KOTAKBANK	2,174.00	14.10%	21.60%	2,202.50	1,543.85	40.82%	1.29%
BAJAJFINSV	2,002.30	7.21%	22.11%	2,029.90	1,419.05	41.10%	1.36%
JSWSTEEL	1,060.00	11.83%	28.07%	1,074.90	815.40	30.00%	1.39%
ICICIBANK	1,348.00	11.98%	23.33%	1,373.00	1,048.10	28.61%	1.82%
HDFCBANK	1,825.50	5.53%	26.27%	1,880.00	1,421.25	28.44%	2.90%
BHARTIARTL	1,727.40	10.39%	41.09%	1,779.00	1,183.10	46.01%	2.90%
BAJFINANCE	8,929.90	4.87%	23.47%	9,260.05	6,375.70	40.06%	3.57%
EICHERMOT	5,345.25	12.03%	33.05%	5,575.50	3,886.10	37.55%	4.13%
ULTRACEMCO	11,481.10	13.64%	18.06%	12,145.35	9,250.00	24.12%	5.47%
GRASIM	2,605.50	13.20%	14.16%	2,877.75	2,171.60	19.98%	9.46%
HDFCLIFE	684.00	12.69%	8.27%	761.20	511.40	33.75%	10.14%
SHRIRAMFIN	656.25	6.27%	-72.20%	730.45	438.60	49.62%	10.16%
BEL	301.33	22.36%	49.54%	340.50	198.00	52.19%	11.50%
SUNPHARMA	1,733.95	8.88%	7.04%	1,960.35	1,377.20	25.90%	11.55%
HINDALCO	682.00	7.58%	21.81%	772.65	555.30	22.82%	11.73%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed best swing in last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 7 Financials and 4 Commodity stocks.  If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by stocks like IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Jio Finance, Hero Moto, and Bajaj Auto. The 25% tariff has done a lot of damage to auto stocks. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 3.43% while the top 20 stocks averaged 8.02% for March 2025. Despite the macro risks, financials have led the large caps higher in March 2025!