Nifty under pressure in July, as global headwinds show up

4 Aug 2025 , 10:27 AM

FPIS SELL EQUITIES in JULY 2025; BUY IN DEBT

After gaining 3.5% in April, 1.7% in May, and 3.1% in June 2025, Nifty fell by -3.03% in July 2025 as global headwinds kept the markets under pressure. FPI flows remained under stress. July 2025 saw FPI selling of ₹(17,741) Crore in equities; offset by buying of ₹12,203 Crore in debt. Overall FPI outflows in July were ₹(5,538) Crore. The 25% tariffs on US exports, combined with penal tariffs for buying Russian oil, are likely to put pressure on markets. Q1FY26 results have seen pressure across the board on margins, even as top-line growth has been along expected lines in Nifty companies. Let us now examine Nifty returns across various parameters.

MOMENTUM RETURNS – NIFTY NEGATIVE IN JULY 2025

With the Nifty index down -3.03% in July 2025, there were 14 gainers and 36 losers in terms of 1-month returns. While the positive side returns averaged 3.09%, the negative side returns were -5.86%, triggered by IT and FMCG stocks. Here are the top 15 on monthly returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
ETERNAL	308.85	17.93%	29.82%	314.45	194.80	58.55%	1.78%
HINDUNILVR	2,524.00	9.83%	-6.82%	3,035.00	2,136.00	18.16%	16.84%
ICICIBANK	1,485.10	3.45%	21.94%	1,500.00	1,153.00	28.80%	0.99%
CIPLA	1,552.00	2.57%	0.67%	1,702.05	1,335.00	16.25%	8.82%
SUNPHARMA	1,700.00	2.37%	-0.74%	1,960.35	1,553.05	9.46%	13.28%
JSWSTEEL	1,057.90	1.82%	12.93%	1,074.90	854.15	23.85%	1.58%
MARUTI	12,521.00	1.33%	-3.87%	13,680.00	10,725.00	16.75%	8.47%
ASIANPAINT	2,391.00	1.12%	-22.32%	3,394.90	2,124.75	12.53%	29.57%
M&M	3,197.50	0.85%	10.16%	3,303.00	2,425.00	31.86%	3.19%
HEROMOTOCO	4,251.90	0.82%	-22.37%	6,246.25	3,344.00	27.15%	31.93%
NTPC	333.70	0.50%	-19.65%	448.45	292.80	13.97%	25.59%
ULTRACEMCO	12,250.00	0.32%	3.04%	12,714.00	10,047.85	21.92%	3.65%
HDFCBANK	2,018.00	0.30%	24.91%	2,037.70	1,593.30	26.66%	0.97%
APOLLOHOSP	7,507.00	0.03%	13.34%	7,635.00	6,001.00	25.10%	1.68%
JIOFIN	329.00	-0.11%	0.23%	363.00	198.65	65.62%	9.37%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed momentum in the last month? The top 15 stocks had 3 Financials, 3 Healthcare Stocks, 3 Auto stocks, 2 commodity stocks and 2 FMCG stocks. The predominance of financials, auto and FMCG stocks shows a clear preference for the domestic India story. There was a good deal of defensive buying in healthcare stocks, especially on the hope that the US will leave pharma out of its tariff ambit. That turned out to be true!

LONGER-TERM RETURNS – NIFTY STORY FOR YEAR TO JULY 2025

With the Nifty index 1-Year returns at -0.73% in July 2025, there were 17 gainers and 33 losers. While the positive side returns were 12.75%, the negative side was -15.49%. Here are the top 15 on Annual Returns.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
ETERNAL	308.85	17.93%	29.82%	314.45	194.80	58.55%	1.78%
BHARTIARTL	1,912.00	-5.20%	28.34%	2,045.80	1,422.60	34.40%	6.54%
HDFCBANK	2,018.00	0.30%	24.91%	2,037.70	1,593.30	26.66%	0.97%
ICICIBANK	1,485.10	3.45%	21.94%	1,500.00	1,153.00	28.80%	0.99%
BEL	383.00	-11.37%	21.21%	436.00	240.25	59.42%	12.16%
BAJAJFINSV	1,952.00	-5.15%	17.94%	2,135.00	1,523.25	28.15%	8.57%
APOLLOHOSP	7,507.00	0.03%	13.34%	7,635.00	6,001.00	25.10%	1.68%
JSWSTEEL	1,057.90	1.82%	12.93%	1,074.90	854.15	23.85%	1.58%
EICHERMOT	5,463.50	-4.32%	10.19%	5,906.50	4,508.75	21.18%	7.50%
M&M	3,197.50	0.85%	10.16%	3,303.00	2,425.00	31.86%	3.19%
KOTAKBANK	1,980.00	-9.39%	9.44%	2,301.90	1,679.05	17.92%	13.98%
HDFCLIFE	757.00	-6.72%	5.59%	820.75	584.30	29.56%	7.77%
SBILIFE	1,840.00	-1.17%	4.96%	1,936.00	1,372.55	34.06%	4.96%
ULTRACEMCO	12,250.00	0.32%	3.04%	12,714.00	10,047.85	21.92%	3.65%
HINDALCO	683.70	-1.62%	2.01%	772.65	546.45	25.12%	11.51%

Data Source: NSE

Which Nifty stock segments showed the best long-term returns? The top 15 stocks by 1-year returns had 6 BFSI companies, 3 commodity stocks, and 2 Auto stocks. If you look at the bottom 15, there were deep cuts in IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, TCS, Coal India, ONGC, Adani Enterprises, Hero Motocorp, and Asian Paints. During the month, Bharti Airtel emerged as the third most valuable company in India, moving ahead of TCS.

NIFTY RESILIENCE SHOWS RESILIENCE IN JULY 2025

A proxy for resilience is the extent of bounce from 52-week lows. For the Nifty index, the bounce from the low of the year stood at 13.91%. Out of 50 stocks in the Nifty, 3 stocks bounced over 40% from lows. A total of 9 stocks have bounced more than 30% and 29 stocks have bounced more than 20%, from the lows of the year.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
JIOFIN	329.00	-0.11%	0.23%	363.00	198.65	65.62%	9.37%
BEL	383.00	-11.37%	21.21%	436.00	240.25	59.42%	12.16%
ETERNAL	308.85	17.93%	29.82%	314.45	194.80	58.55%	1.78%
ADANIPORTS	1,374.00	-5.11%	-12.54%	1,604.95	995.65	38.00%	14.39%
BAJFINANCE	880.00	-5.92%	-87.05%	978.80	642.50	36.96%	10.09%
BHARTIARTL	1,912.00	-5.20%	28.34%	2,045.80	1,422.60	34.40%	6.54%
SBILIFE	1,840.00	-1.17%	4.96%	1,936.00	1,372.55	34.06%	4.96%
M&M	3,197.50	0.85%	10.16%	3,303.00	2,425.00	31.86%	3.19%
INDUSINDBK	798.00	-9.12%	-44.05%	1,498.00	606.00	31.68%	46.73%
HDFCLIFE	757.00	-6.72%	5.59%	820.75	584.30	29.56%	7.77%
ICICIBANK	1,485.10	3.45%	21.94%	1,500.00	1,153.00	28.80%	0.99%
TATASTEEL	157.30	-1.32%	-4.47%	170.18	122.62	28.28%	7.57%
BAJAJFINSV	1,952.00	-5.15%	17.94%	2,135.00	1,523.25	28.15%	8.57%
SHRIRAMFIN	631.80	-9.42%	-78.48%	730.45	493.35	28.06%	13.51%
HEROMOTOCO	4,251.90	0.82%	-22.37%	6,246.25	3,344.00	27.15%	31.93%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed the best resilience in the last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 8 BFSI stocks and 2 Auto stocks. If you look at the bottom 15, the strugglers include several marquee defensive stocks like (TCS, ITC, Nestle India, Coal India, Wipro, Sun Pharma, Trend, and HCL Technologies). Stocks like Jio Finance, Bharti Airtel, and BEL are at the top on multiple counts. The top 10 stocks gave an average bounce of 42.01% while the top 20 stocks bounced 34.32% from lows.

SWING STORY – HOW CLOSE ARE NIFTY STOCKS TO YEARLY HIGHS?

Swing measures the distance of the stock price to the yearly high. Lower the gap, higher the favourable swing. Nifty swing deteriorated from 2.89% in June to 5.74% in July 2025. Out of the 50 stocks in the Nifty, 9 stocks are less than 5% away from their 52-week highs, while a total of 19 stocks are less than 10% away.

Stock Symbol	Market Price	1-Month Return	1-Year Return	52-week High	52-week Low	Bounce from Low	Distance to High
HDFCBANK	2,018.00	0.30%	24.91%	2,037.70	1,593.30	26.66%	0.97%
ICICIBANK	1,485.10	3.45%	21.94%	1,500.00	1,153.00	28.80%	0.99%
JSWSTEEL	1,057.90	1.82%	12.93%	1,074.90	854.15	23.85%	1.58%
APOLLOHOSP	7,507.00	0.03%	13.34%	7,635.00	6,001.00	25.10%	1.68%
ETERNAL	308.85	17.93%	29.82%	314.45	194.80	58.55%	1.78%
M&M	3,197.50	0.85%	10.16%	3,303.00	2,425.00	31.86%	3.19%
ULTRACEMCO	12,250.00	0.32%	3.04%	12,714.00	10,047.85	21.92%	3.65%
GRASIM	2,760.00	-3.57%	-1.09%	2,896.00	2,276.95	21.21%	4.70%
SBILIFE	1,840.00	-1.17%	4.96%	1,936.00	1,372.55	34.06%	4.96%
BHARTIARTL	1,912.00	-5.20%	28.34%	2,045.80	1,422.60	34.40%	6.54%
EICHERMOT	5,463.50	-4.32%	10.19%	5,906.50	4,508.75	21.18%	7.50%
TATASTEEL	157.30	-1.32%	-4.47%	170.18	122.62	28.28%	7.57%
HDFCLIFE	757.00	-6.72%	5.59%	820.75	584.30	29.56%	7.77%
LT	3,628.50	-0.82%	-4.68%	3,963.50	2,965.30	22.37%	8.45%
MARUTI	12,521.00	1.33%	-3.87%	13,680.00	10,725.00	16.75%	8.47%

Data Source: NSE

Which sectors showed the best swing in the last 1 year? The top 15 stocks had 4 Financials, 4 Commodity stocks, and 3 Auto stocks.  If you look at the bottom 15 by swing, it was dominated by bottom-up stories like IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, Trent, Bajaj Auto, TCS, Hero Moto, and Coal India. The bottom list is more stock-specific rather than reflective of any sectoral trends. The top 10 stocks had an average swing of 3.00% while the top 20 stocks averaged 5.82% for July 2025. For now, it looks like the domestic India story with consumption theme, like banks and autos, is dominating, although the big star of the month of July was Eternal Ltd (formerly Zomato)!